Movies Watched -- The Guilty (2018)

Added on by C. Maoxian.

In Danish. 85 minute running time so well within the sacred 100 minute limit. I loved this movie! It all takes place in a police dispatcher’s room, with one cop on the phone, yet it’s totally thrilling and completely engrossing, with things revealed bit by bit, assumptions getting flip-flopped. Really well done. Highly recommended. Will definitely make my Top Ten Movies of 2018 list (which will come out in 2020 since I’m still working on the 2017 list now). The Danes can make some really good movies (and TV shows). A rare case where the 99% fresh rating on rotten tomatoes is actually accurate. Green go, see this one!

It’s all my fault

It’s all my fault

Trading Notes -- 20190301 Friday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Broad tone poz, you guessed it, market was up again, can’t have two down days in a row, hasn’t happened since last December. BPTH the HTB du jour… 191K … I took one stab at it in morning, took 0.5R loss and then was locked out under PDT. Crazy that I haven’t sent money over to the bookie yet, but will rectify next week for sure … good opportunity to short it in afternoon, but I’m not sure how many losses I would have taken before catching that, and then it rallied to new highs EOD as stuck shorts covered (didn’t want to pay 7x borrow cost, lol) … PBYI also in play 41.7K, shorted it late morning, got good cover on half, didn’t trail second half aggressively enough but still a sizable gain. Then it ran all the way back and made new highs, brutal. I’m sure people blew up on BPTH, it was nearly ZSAN-like scary.

Trading Notes -- 20190228 Thursday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Broad tone slightly neg … RKDA the HTB du jour (117K) … TGTX also in play (38.7K)… TTOO less so (20.3K) … ENDP (28.7K) woulda been good , but I didn’t see it in time, too busy goofing on TWTR. Traded RKDA and TGTX well, had to go to bookie broker for afternoon borrow in RKDA (0.02), which was a doozy — they smashed people and I was lucky to be able to hop on for the ride … didn’t handle exits especially well and had to leave early for massage, but I learned from some mistakes once again. TGTX dropped an offering at 16:01 the dirty bastards, but I was long gone. GEVO did 1,600 trades total on Day Two. :) Laying out the chart differently so I still have to tinker with that a bit. Found some neat YouTube videos from Steven Du … can’t say if he’s totally legit, but I like what I see. Glad to finish an atrocious month, probably my worst in the last two years, but I’m still standing and always learning so it’s good.

Trading Notes -- 20190227 Wednesday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Broad tone mixed … GEVO the HTB du jour, no good spot pre-open, woulda had to chase … shorted TNDM, messed it up a bit (paranoid given number of recent all-day runners) but finally got decent average, happy with covers, shorted SE on a 15 min setup, went my way more than 1R then reversed and I didn’t get out immediately, ended up taking planned loss which was an error, shoulda been a scratch at worst… I’m still working on the 15 minute play, how to manage, it’s tough, woulda been perfect long but of course I couldn’t do that! MTP another HTB SDJ, sub dollar though, didn’t really watch since no way to play.

Trading Notes -- 20190226 Tuesday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Poz tone, though flattish prices … FTNW the HTB du jour… 76,400 trades, nothing like CFIS yesterday but still… HTBX and ZYNE PO movers but no spots and FTNW had all the attention and money in the day trading world. Glad to finally exit KNDI, though driven out at trailing stop on final bit. Notes on charts:

Movies Watched -- Blindspotting (2018)

Added on by C. Maoxian.

95 minutes so a good length, but I still had to watch it at 1.5x ffwd. The story of two childhood friends, one black, one white. Black guy has three days left on probation (convicted of a horrific assault on a hipster, his white friend got off, inexplicably), when he witnesses a white cop shoot a black guy in the back. Issues of race and the gentrification of Oakland, but it wasn't very good, a muddled message at best. Clearly the black guy playing the part is educated, probably a sweet middle class kid who grew up in a nice suburb. I wasn't thrilled. Lots of unnecessary swearing too. Dude, do you have to use so many cuss words? Again the rotten tomatoes ranking leads me astray. Red rating, avoid.

Richard Brody gets it right: “… the movie’s substantial observations are dispersed in theatrics … the conflicts are schematic, the characters are thinly sketched….“

I ain’t no killa, I just beat guys senseless who have caught on fire

I ain’t no killa, I just beat guys senseless who have caught on fire

Trading Notes -- 20190225 Monday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Poz broad tone, never a down day … CIFS TTNP KNDI UXIN … ACHV day two down 24% 9,600 trades, 181,000 last Friday, lol. Notes on charts.

Trading Notes -- 20190222 Friday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Poz broad tone (predictably, can’t have two down days in a row, been the case for months now) … ACHV the HTB du jour and the only game in town … all ZSAN losses recoupable but only if you acted off of PO difangs, no spot in regular hours, and they triggered SSR early, the dirty bastards … finally stopped out of DBD, crazy to hold it that long but better than monkeying with the original stop. KNDI the clown car company still holding up… it’s either going to go to new highs or collapse, take your pick.

Trading Notes -- 20190221 Thursday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Slightly negative tone (don’t worry, it’ll go up again tomorrow) … ZSAN all-day runner, Killer of Flying Pig Players, KNDI, ADIL, CREG … notes on charts.

Trading Notes -- 20190220 Wednesday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Poz tone for the SPY yet again. Never a down day, for months now. PO HTBs KNDI, CLSD, RIOT … interestingly IB had a few shares of KNDI and CLSD which I anticipated would all be pre-borrowed and was correct about … RIOT is full red unshortable … KNDI squeezed all morning and into 13:30 and I shorted C&B and eventually A off of PO difangs, IB gave me a very nice fill on the A since they ran out of borrows in the morning then found some in the afternoon and filled me right then (near top tick of course) … would have been awkward if I wanted to add at C1 and had no shares available, woulda been a major bummer but it didn’t happen. KNDI has had a $300M shelf in effect for a year and a half now and this NHTSA approval the perfect spot for them to sell into, but we’ll see. Able to carry since not paying 7x for the overnight barrow, ha! CLSD a little more straightforward, shorted C&B and could have added A but they ran out of borrow (didn’t pre-borrow enough, same as KNDI), woulda been near top tick (of course) but I’m fine with this ave and will hold into a StuckAtaProfit day(s) and eventually cover out for the expected gain (he says confidently (hopefully?)) … they did find 20K more shares after hours, but we’ll see about adding them, probably won’t.

Movies Watched -- Custody (2018)

Added on by C. Maoxian.

In French. 93 minutes, so the right length, but so grim I had to watch it at 1.5x ffwd. Custody battle, 11-year-old boy and his teenage sister caught in the middle. Father, a hulking brute, is menacing in a Tony Soprano-ish way. Doesn't have a good relationship with his own old man, gets thrown out. Ugly biz. Father snaps in the end. Miserable, who wants to watch this kind of thing? Not a thriller, don't know why it's categorized that way. Yellow rating at best.

Don’t hit Mom (or me)!

Don’t hit Mom (or me)!

Trading Notes -- 20190219 Tuesday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Broad tone poz, god forbid there’s a down day and never ever two in a row…. PO HTBs: SKYS ORPN ARTW … shorted SKYS (0.18 borrow) at PO C covered half at minC, didn’t hit Typ3 before close, wasn’t going to carry at 7x cost, SKYS was only FIDO in morning though of course crowded out by day end … RIOT full red at IB came alive (latecomer) given BTC rally, put in big run, gave many good spots (secondary and even tertiary), RIOT FIDO #14 EOD predictably, ARTW C&B possible, minC and Typ3 reached during day, ditto for ORPN though ORPN did a vicious squeeze first, woulda had to be secondary entries .. XNET another old BTC play back to life, IB has 2.5MM shares so I’ll stay away :) … good day, very solid trading, coulda been very big if not under PDT, money will be sent this week or next (he says hopefully). Still have two old positions (PYX, DBD) yet to stop out but looks like they will … once those are clear, I can switch 100% to bookie broker.

Movies Watched -- Molly's Game (2018)

Added on by C. Maoxian.

140 minutes long so at least 40 minutes too long… way, way, way too long. Written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, a sympathetic view of Molly Bloom, a woman who ran an underground poker game for a number of years, first in LA and then in NYC. Starred Jessica Chestain, er, Chastain and her chest and cheekbones, and Kevin Costner as her pushy Jewish dad, Larry, which didn’t work for me. They also invented a gorgeous black lawyer (Idris Elba) who worked pro bono for her, which was weird but par for the course for Hollywood.

Only really interesting part was when the Italian mob beat her up after she rejected their offer of debt collection and protection. Could she really have been that naive? Also interesting was how she recruited players by paying off casino floor men and cocktail hostesses. Some cheap psychobabble about Daddy Issues and needing to have power over powerful men. Why not just say she was greedy, liked partying, and didn’t have the good sense to quit while she was ahead?

I think Sorkin likes these Wayward Jew stories and wants to create his own version of history. Wouldn’t have been terrible if they made it 90 minutes long, but as it is, it’s a red, avoid.

Mick Lasalle gets it right: “Sorkin takes a sordid, morally muddled anecdote and inflates it with an importance it doesn’t deserve and can’t sustain … Sorkin’s default, when in doubt, is to steamroll the audience with dialogue.“

Just a really ambitious librarian who liked snorting coke

Just a really ambitious librarian who liked snorting coke

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 171

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Episode 171 -- Stan Gluzman (77:46)

  • Doesn't trade the close anymore

  • The close used to be his go-to time, but not anymore

  • Doesn't hold overnight

  • Biggest position on by 9:45 AM, trades around core until 11 AM, usually flat by noon

  • Things are mispriced in the morning, but fairly priced by noon

  • Forgets tickers shortly after he's done trading them

  • Aaron mentions Stan's CLRO trade from morning of recording

  • Looks at VWAP

  • Tries to short near top, covers half on washout, re-shorts the next pop, covers wash, etc.

  • All chat rooms watch the same stock, pump it multiple times throughout the day

  • Trading full-time 4.5 years, another 1.5 years part-time before then while in college

  • Started in 2013 when in college, made 30% on a $5 stock in two days, "bitten by the bug"

  • Started studying trading on his own while still in college, joined chat rooms, bought DVDs

  • Locked himself in his room and "started blowing up accounts" in 2014

  • Realized he needed to be surrounded by professionals, joined prop firm in 2015

  • Was a breakeven trader when he joined the prop firm, before accounting for commissions

  • Undercapitalized, so commissions made him a net loser despite breaking even on trades

  • At prop firm he first learned how to scalp for half a penny trading millions of shares

  • Read on a forum that a good prop firm doesn't take your money, no capital contribution

  • Seven Points Capital office right next to his college

  • Seven Points doesn't require capital contribution, charges no commissions

  • Seven Points wanted people who were teachable and passionate about trading

  • Advantage of being prop trader versus retail trader: "like working out in a high-end gym with a personal trainer versus working out in your backyard with buckets of water"

  • In prop you're trading other people's money, not your own, so no psychological pressure

  • Routes are important, has access to ten dark pools, six aggregators, plus all the exchanges

  • Have to figure out how to jump the queue by figuring out which dark pool is actually buying or selling

  • Has 150 (?!?) hot keys set up

  • Most used hot key, "F2" short the bid [I laughed]

  • Uses scroll wheel to select position size

  • Mike Katz was his first real mentor

  • Mike Katz always keeps his eyes open, in the right places at the right times, on his toes

  • Red two days in a row? Try to figure out the error

  • When losing money, he sizes down, divides his daily lockout dollar loss by four

  • Got his first paycheck five months in at Seven Points Capital, been sizing up ever since

  • 2015 his first full profitable year

  • In 2016 he traded 260,000,000 shares, more than a million shares a day scalping [no commissions key?]

  • First time he lost $1,000 was a shock, but as he sized up, it became a regular sized hit, no longer hurt

  • In 2016 he would take advantage of inefficient algorithms, "short the offer, cover the mid"

  • In 2016, Sprint (S), Sirius (SIRI), Ford (F) were ticker symbols he'd trade: high volume, small range

  • Short the offer, saw offer was about to lift, would cover the offer or cover at the bid once it flipped up

  • 96% success rate doing the kind of scalping, but that was 2016, can't do this anymore

  • Can gauge "Book Pressure" by watching the tape

  • Algos didn't care about book pressure, it would just execute at some regular interval

  • Could spot the algo because the same price and quantity was printing at a regular interval

  • Midpoint is price between bid and offer, there is "invisible" liquidity there, "peg to midpoint"

  • BYX is his preferred route for the midpoint

  • "Can't get the bid, go for the mid"

  • Crappy little penny stocks are volatile and retail-driven, small order sizes, not scalpable with size

  • Switched from scalping stocks like Sprint to scalping SSR (short sale restriction) stocks

  • Using his superior routing skills, he could short SSR stocks at the mid as they fell

  • Most people are at the offer or the bid, they don't even know about the mid

  • Gives example from his SSR trading that day: one gain was five cents, other gain was 35 cents -- "scalpy"

  • SSR strategy just a tool in his toolbox now, the edge has sort of disappeared

  • Small-cap stocks gap up and fail, a "fader" [no mention of locate fees, alas]

  • Small caps are volatile, full of dumb money: newbies plus true believers

  • Also trades big cap stocks on earnings days

  • Small cap stocks gap up for a lot of reasons, usually a press release

  • Uses gap scanner, filters by float and market cap, less than 100 million share float, usually under 20 million

  • Uses multiple entries and multiple exits ... this is the secret to his success

  • Takes 1/4 position at point he thinks is the top, if wrong he just loses 1/4; if he's right, he adds as it falls

  • Scalps half his position and holds half for the all day fade

  • If he thinks he's right, and a big bid appears, he'll smash the bid

  • You'll never pick the top or the bottom, you always have to scale in and out

  • Give yourself room to be right

  • If stock drops sharply, will take off a quarter, drops sharply again, will take off another quarter

  • After every sharp drop he covers, then re-shorts the bounce if it happens

  • Has a set risk amount on every trade that he's willing to lose

  • When he doesn't follow that set risk amount, "gets stubborn," he takes his biggest losses

  • "Do you want to make money, or do you want to be right?"

  • Tracks performance of his setups: size of float, size of gap, time of topping out, pre-market volume, etc.

  • Has created "money box" ranges where he expects stocks to top out or bottom out

  • Visualizes the "money box" on his charts

  • Learned how to code to create the "money box" visual indicator on his charts

  • Stocks that continue to squeeze up are outliers

  • Tries to line up fundamental reasons, tape reading, basic technical analysis, on every position

  • Learned about volume forecasting from AllDayFaders

  • Idea is to forecast volume to predict if price will fade or squeeze during the day

  • Unusual demand leads to squeezes

  • Stan doesn't want to get a job, so he trades for a living [chuckling]

  • June 2018 he had a red month, it was rough, he pulled a lot of all-nighters

  • Learned a ton from JTrader, who helped him get through June slump

  • Mike Mangieri encouraged him, had his back despite the losses

  • NYC is expensive and the weather isn't great, so he left for Florida (also taxes too high in NY)

  • Set up Ft. Lauderdale office with Krishna Joshi

  • Has three other traders on the desk in Ft. Lauderdale, plus one studying for his license

  • New traders shadow him for a couple of weeks, can figure things out more quickly that way

  • Records his screen every day, posts it to group intranet so colleagues can study

  • Eliminate mistakes, don't repeat the same mistakes

  • Being fearful when entering a trade is a mistake to be worked on

  • Sized up in 2018 and wasn't as consistent as 2017

  • Goal for 2019 is to find balance between taking full-size positions and not shooting for home runs (holding too long)

  • Added many new setups to his toolbox in 2018

  • "If the market changes, I will adapt."

  • Twitter: @ciocanatrader

Trading Notes -- 20190215 Friday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

SAEX, SKYS, APHA, SOLO, DUV, CYBR, ARRY, DBD, PYX … poz broad tone, can’t have down day anymore, not allowed, comments in charts below:

Trading Notes -- 20190214 Thursday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Mixed broad tone …HTBs du jour: SOLO (again), RBZ, FUV (latecomer) … scratched a number of marginal things, put on full risk in CYBR (all-time high), no way to reduce risk given time of day. See charts below:

Trading Notes -- 20190213 Wednesday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Poz broad tone … noticed that since Dec there’s never been three consec down days and rarely two, massive uptrend means no tailwind … SOLO the HTB SDJ today … 88,888 trades at day end … PTX the other HTB SDJ … I shorted SOLO (0.02 borrow) in the morning at C&B avoided adding A (fortunately, partly because I didn’t want to pay for yet another borrow) and stopped out for a 1R loss, well played … then they ripped it to 3 no 4 no (after hours) 5 and maybe 6 as I type this … you gotta honor thy stop … recall that I lost a VAST amount of money recently in APHA from what? not honoring my stop, then my head was screwed up so I couldn’t take advantage of it as it fell and I surely would have made it all back and then some … a loss like COTY yday, that’s a fluke, that doesn’t count, I honored thy stop as best I could, no regrets (helped that it was very small size lol) … covered the rest of APHA Typ3, there’s an example of a fine trade which made back most (all?) of my squeeze out loss earlier, my head was still in the right place with that one… some of the late day things I put on yday I scratched, just a waste of time (and commish) .. covered some PTI at an adjusted minC, will scratch the rest if it bounces, it’s dead 3980 trades today … shorted PYX messed up by not getting an add at B but I was busy and there were a million things in play today, at least I got the main size on … shorted YGYI covered minC waiting below with rest … tried to short GSUM, no spot but free borrow made me look hard at it … shorted RKDA, DBD, will see what happens, may end up scratching or taking a loss, who knows.

The Spoiled Children of Liberty

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Liked this bit from an interview with Midge Decter in October 2001:

I think we're living as people have never lived before. Never. And we don't know our way. We don't know how to do this. We don't know how to live into our 90s. We don't know how to live without physical suffering. We don't know how to accept hardship, and when it comes, it feels like an injustice. The things that people lived with always throughout history, we--we find ourselves cut off from the sources of human wisdom and experience because this life is so new and we are bewildered. I think we are.

Trading Notes -- 20190212 Tuesday

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Snow day, kids home, poz broad tape, COTY tender whammy, not a small cap after all, PYX VKTX TROX CVNA CHGG WORX (0.05 borrow) MIME … lotta earnings, still waiting below in AMRS ARRY PTI … VKTX good and bad