Cutting more losses ... the China short nicely timed though.
From December 18, 1954 ... by E.B. White:
First news I saw was CNBC at 14:13 ... scanner may have picked things up at 13:57 or 14:03 at the latest ... hard to say if you could find a borrow and get short ... always interested in talking with traders who caught this in real time.
Lots of large losses and a few scratches ... hard to make a buck on the short side still.
This I did see in real-time but too groggy to do anything about it ... hard to see if it would have been a good play ... when it came back down in the 13:20s to probe around the re-open low, that may have been a place you'd get shaken out ... not that wonderful unless you were one of the early birds in below $65 ... can't tell how many trades went off down there without a tick chart.
Late to post this, thus the two minute chart ... some "activist" said Macy's worth $125 a share ... quick day traders could have made at least $3 off of this pop, scanner willing. Can't see where the stop would go without a tick chart, but I assume the risk reward would have been decent in the end.
Takeover story posted to fake Bloomberg site ... obviously the perpetrators loaded up on call options in advance and dumped them into the "news" ... I have no idea how people think they can get away with this ... it's so easy to track the purchases back to the broker and the individual accounts, crazy, they will all be caught in short order.
Anyway, as a day trader, you would see this and probably buy in ... say you paid $37.50 getting in, you probably would have lost money or a scratch at best, the whole up and down move was done in ten minutes. As always, I'm interested in talking with people who were involved with it in real time.
No changes this week...
Lots of reversals this week... will be short a majority of things after making these changes.
No changes this week. TZA offsetting the dumb QID short ... expect to reverse QID soon enough, we'll see.
First 50 tracks generated by the Pandora algo.
- Tanita Tikaram – Good Tradition
- Dido – Hunter
- Norah Jones – Come Away With Me
- Katie Todd – Leave
- Tanita Tikaram – Valentine Heart
- Suzanne Vega – Gypsy
- Norah Jones – Broken
- Edie Brickell & New Bohemians – Circle
- The Cranberries – Pretty
- Tanita Tikaram – Love Is Just A Word
- Natalie Imbruglia – Torn
- Enya – Only Time [thumbs down]
- Sonya Kitchell – Train
- Tanita Tikaram – All Things To You
- Adele – Make You Feel My Love (Live)
- Dido – Here With Me
- Suzanne Vega – Marlene On The Wall
- Elaine K. – Soft Skin
- Norah Jones – Wake Me Up
- 10,000 Maniacs – These Are Days
- Sarah McLachlan – Adia [easy listening quality to this one]
- Dido – I’m No Angel
- Tracy Chapman – Almost
- Holly Cole – Alison [covering Elvis dangerous]
- Julee Cruise – Falling [Twin Peaks theme song?]
- Etta James – At Last
- Norah Jones – What Am I To You?
- Tanita Tikaram – My Love
- Norah Jones – Be Here To Love Me
- Thea Gilmore – Have You Heard
- Dido – Sand In My Shoes
- Tanita Tikaram – Play Me Again
- The Cranberries – Dreams
- 10,000 Maniacs – More Than This [not Natalie singing]
- Tori Amos – Sorta Fairytale [anodyne, thumbs down]
- Tanita Tikaram – One Kiss
- Norah Jones – Nightingale
- Dido – White Flag [top 40 hit?]
- Edie Brickell & New Bohemians – Nothing [another hit]
- Tanita Tikaram – Wonderful Shadow
- Norah Jones – The Long Way Home
- Julee Cruise – Floating [more Twin Peaks sounding stuff]
- Natalie Imbruglia – Leave Me Alone [one hit wonder with Torn]
- The Cardigans – 03:45 No Sleep
- Dido – Life For Rent
- Suzanne Vega – Straight Lines
- Cary Brothers – Ride
- Sting – Fields Of Gold
- Norah Jones – Humble Me
- Jennie Devoe – Don’t Forget To Breathe
TRIP popped at 12:33 PM ... not sure if the scanner would have picked up on it, but it surely would have seen 12:37 PM.
As I've said time and again the one minute chart is not particularly useful for seeing where you could realistically enter and place stops, you need a tick chart for that, and my buddy @HCPG kindly provided me with two ten tick charts below:
You can see that it would have been tough (for the scanner) to spot between 12:32 and 12:37 ...
It's during the 12:37 bar that activity really picks up and it would be sounding multiple alarms ... even with a "bad" entry of $79 (better at $78) things would have worked out into the close, risk versus reward worthwhile (said with the benefit of hindsight).
StockTwits stream, usual suspects NewsHedge_Squawk and OpenOutcrier ... Moench first to notice at 12:34 which gives me hope that the scanner would have bleeped, beating the pack.
Finally got over to this place, not sure how long it has been open, months maybe? It's near Hooters ... I had to ask directions at Gung Ho Pizza since I was walking down the shady side of the building; a kind waiter at Gung Ho actually *walked* me over to Tribe, which was great service!
I sat downstairs, in a spot that had a bit of an air con draft, but that was my fault. There was an upstairs with some cozy tables for two, but I was dining solo. Ever since it was discovered that I'm not the spoiled son of a Chinese-American medical doctor, my dating pool has shrunk dramatically.
Place has a crunchy granola vibe, must be some California thing they're imitating. There's a chain called Wagas, and a local place called Moka Bros., which are tapping into the same thing... ya know, light wood, chalk boards, healthful food ("grain bowls"), waitstaff in black t-shirts.
The whip-handed foreign boss was on site, which pleased me. I believe he is an American though he was speaking Chinese to his workers. He also had the good sense, given his balding pattern, to keep his hair very short and some designer stubble on face. The staff seemed happy.
Nice design element on the kitchen door, a slot in the shape of the Tribe 'T' logo ... those are the thoughtful touches I look for. Waitress was friendly (they all are, with *me*) and appeared to have that rarest of all things among Chinese girls: a shapely ass. Food came out in good time, not too quick, not too slow, just as Goldi likes it.
My Twitter buddy @murdochsj recommended the lamb meatball sandwich, but they were out. So I got a chicken tandoori salad wrap (68 kuai, US$10.95) instead. I also got some beet hummus (48 kuai, US$7.73), an Australian beer "Pure Blonde?" (38 kuai, US$6.12), and a carrot cake doughnut (25 kuai, US$4.03) for dessert.
My wrap was too dry. The filling to wrap ratio wasn't right. The filling itself wasn't bad, there just wasn't enough of it given the amount and dryness of the wrap. I like the idea of healthful food, but it has to be expertly done, and this fell short. Of course I'm an American pig and prefer things that drip.
The hummus was a lovely color (from the beets) and it tasted good, but the texture was too smooth for me, too goy. Nothing compares with the hummus I ate during my year in Lebanon as a UN "peacekeeper." And the hummus didn't sit with me very well, not sure why, just a brief moment bouncing along the scooter later where I thought, "hmmm." They crisped and salted some cut-up wrap to scoop the hummus with... I had to ask for a second helping of the crisped wrap (no charge) to finish the bowl of hummus -- again a ratio problem.
They nuked the carrot cake doughnut (those are coconut flakes on top), which was nice and warm and the electromagnetic radiation negated its vegan quality (I hope).
Grand total 179 kuai, US$28.83, so it ain't cheap. They were doing good business on a Tuesday lunchtime, so the rising middle class in China is not suffering from price shock. Take credit cards, quick with fapiao.
Cross currents as I take a net loss and now short the Q's and get long small caps ... recipe for losing money no doubt, but I follow the model without any independent thought.
First 50 tracks generated by the Pandora algo:
- Pitbull -- Feel This Moment
- Enur -- Calabria 2008
- David Guetta -- Crank It Up
- Enrique Iglesias -- I Like It
- Pitbull -- Hey Baby (Drop It To The Floor)
- Flo Rida -- Whistle
- Nina Sky -- Move Ya Body
- Kat Deluna -- Whine Up
- Mark Ronson -- Uptown Funk (feat. Bruno Mars)
- Pitbull -- Bon, Bon
- Don Omar & Lucenzo -- Danza Kuduro
- DJ Snake & Lil Jon -- Turn Down For What
- Enrique Iglesias -- Bailanda (English Version)
- Pitbull -- Give Me Everything
- Sean Paul -- Temperature
- Jennifer Lopez -- Dance Again
- Usher -- Scream
- Robin Thicke -- Blurred Lines
- will.i.am -- Scream & Shout
- Black Eyed Peas -- The Time (Dirty Bit)
- Flo Rida -- Low
- Havana Brown -- We Run The Night
- Jason DeRulo -- Talk Dirty
- Usher -- DJ Got Us Fallin' In Love
- Far East Movement -- Like A G6
- Prince Royce -- Back It Up (feat. Pitbull)
- Flo Rida -- Wild Ones
- Sean Paul -- (When You Gonna) Give It Up To Me
- David Guetta -- Sexy Chick
- Usher -- More
- LMFAO -- Party Rock Anthem
- Flo Rida -- Right Round
- Enrique Iglesias -- Bailando (Spansih version)
- Enur -- Calabria 2007 (MIMS Remix)
- Jennifer Lopez -- Live It Up
- David Guetta -- Titanium
- Usher -- Yeah!
- Sean Paul -- We Be Burnin'
- Enrique Iglesias -- Tonight (I'm Fornicating With You) [SUBTLE!]
- LMFAO -- Sexy And I Know It
- Macklemore & Ryan Lewis -- Thrift Shop
- Sean Paul -- Get Busy
- Pitbull -- I Know You Want Me (Calle Ocho)
- David Guetta -- Where Them Girls At
- Jeremih -- Tonight Belongs to U! (feat. Flo Rida)
- Rihanna -- We Found Love
- Pitbull -- Shake Senora
- Nelly -- Just A Dream
- Jeremih -- Down On Me
- Ying Yang Twins -- Shake
From the latest 10-K:
"During 2014, we generated revenues of $206.6 million and recorded a net loss of $48.4 million. Of the $206.6 million in revenues, 92% consisted of transaction revenues with the remaining 8% derived primarily from the sale of data and consulting services to the automotive and financial services industries.
Autodata estimates that in 2014, OEMs spent $46 billion in incentives to induce consumers to purchase their vehicles. This is an increase of nearly 15% over 2013. Incentive spending now represents approximately 9% of industry transaction revenues.
Revenues consist of fees paid by dealers participating in the Company’s dealer network with which the Company has an agreement (“TrueCar Certified Dealers” or “Dealers”). TrueCar Certified Dealers pay the Company fees either on a per-vehicle basis for sales to Auto Buying Program users or in the form of a subscription arrangement.
The Company recognizes revenue for fee arrangements based on a per-vehicle basis when the vehicle sale has occurred between the Auto Buying Program user and the Dealer. Under the contractual terms and conditions of arrangements with its network of participating TrueCar Certified Dealers, the dealer is required to pay the Company upon the sale of a vehicle to an Auto Buying Program user that has been provided to the dealer by the Company. Recognition of revenue from the sale is not contingent upon verification or acceptance of the transaction by the dealer.
Upon a user deciding to proceed with the user’s vehicle purchase through the Company, the user provides his or her name, address, e-mail, and a phone number during the process of obtaining a Guaranteed Savings Certificate, which gives the Company the identity and source of a TrueCar introduction provided to a specific dealer prior to an actual sale occurring. After a sale occurs, the Company receives information regarding the sale, including the identity of the purchaser, via the Dealer Management System used by the dealer that made the sale. The Company also receives information regarding vehicle sales from a variety of data sources, including third party car sales aggregators, car dealer networks, and other publicly available sources (collectively, “sales data”) and uses this sales data to further verify that a sale has occurred between an Auto Buying Program user and a TrueCar Certified Dealer, as well as a means to invoice the Dealer shortly after the completion of the sales transaction. Actual vehicle sales data is reported on a daily basis shortly following the date of sale.
The Company also recognizes revenue from dealers under subscription agreements. Subscription fee arrangements are short-term in nature with terms ranging from one to three months and are cancellable by the dealer or the Company at any time.
Subscription arrangements fall into three types: flat rate subscriptions, subscriptions subject to downward adjustment based on a minimum number of vehicle sales (“guaranteed sales”), and subscriptions subject to downward adjustment based on a minimum number of introductions (“guaranteed introductions”).
Under flat rate subscription arrangements, fees are charged at a monthly flat rate regardless of the number of sales made to users of the Company’s platform by the dealer. For flat rate subscription arrangements, the Company recognizes the fees as revenue over the subscription period on a straight line basis which corresponds to the period that the Company is providing the dealer access to the Auto Buying Program.
Under guaranteed sales subscription arrangements, fees are charged based on the number of guaranteed sales multiplied by a fixed amount per vehicle. To the extent that the actual number of vehicles sold by the dealers to users of the Company’s platform is less than the number of guaranteed sales, the Company provides a credit to the dealer. To the extent that the actual number of vehicles sold exceeds the number of guaranteed sales, the Company is not entitled to any additional fees.
Under guaranteed introductions subscription arrangements, fees are charged based on a periodically-updated formula that considers, among other things, the introductions anticipated to be provided to the dealer. To the extent that the number of actual introductions is less than the number of guaranteed introductions, the Company provides a credit to the dealer. To the extent that the actual number of introductions provided exceeds the number guaranteed, the Company is not entitled to any additional fees.
For guaranteed sales and guaranteed introductions subscription arrangements, the Company recognizes revenue based on the lesser of (i) the actual number of sales generated or introductions delivered through the Auto Buying Program during the subscription period multiplied by the contracted price-per-sale/introduction or (ii) the straight-line of the subscription fee over the period over which the services are delivered."
Would like to see a revenue breakdown on the per-vehicle auto buying program versus subscriptions, and a further revenue breakdown among the three types of subscriptions.
Taking yet another loss in the gold ... should post chart of all my wrong moves in this since it topped back in 2011.
Ippudo is a chain noodle restaurant out of Japan, I guess. I think there are two branches in Beijing, one in the Kerry Center and one in Oriental Plaza, I visited the latter. There are lots of chain noodle restaurants around (Mian Ai Mian, Ajisen, Kang Shifu, etc.) but Ippudo is a little more upscale than those.
They pull out your chair for you and give you a glass of water immediately. I went a little after the end of the lunch hour, so it was fairly empty and service was quick and friendly. Seats feel a bit low to me but I'm larger than the average Japanese. I got the "Special Sapporo Miso" (RMB58, US$9.35), a small serving of extra noodles (Kae-dama) (RMB3, US$0.48), a small mug of Asahi draft beer (RMB30, US$4.84), and caramel pudding for dessert (RMB16, US$2.58) (a bit of sweetie at the end of every meal is the law).
Chicken broth was garlicky (which I liked), but way way too salty. Could be a plot to make people order more mugs of beer (I resisted). Noodles were al dente, the way they should be. Caramel pudding was cold and came in a cute little jar that was tough to clean out (a barbarian might employ the digit usually reserved for nose picking to do this). I could hear an exhaust fan somewhere and they had some frantic jazzish music going, maybe to encourage diners not to linger.
Paying nine bucks for a bowl of chain store ramen means you're a sucker. But it's well lit and appears to be clean and gives you that homogenized, globalized, mall-based corporate blah restaurant feel that induces the anomie (am I in Santa Monica or Beijing?) which we all love. And it was better than the other places I mentioned above; of course it should be for the price bump.
You pay on the way out. No service charge, they take credit cards and were quick with shousi fapiao. Grand total, RMB107 (US$17.25).