Idiot Wave Frustrations in Tesla

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Tesla (TSLA) looks like a long to me now, from an Idiot Wave perspective. Seeing the current chart reminded me of the last time I thought Tesla looked like a long: December 19, 2014. That trade resulted in a ~$30 loss. Then on January 23, 2015, I thought it set up again. That trade also resulted in a ~$30 loss. Finally on March 31, 2015, I thought it set up again. That trade (entered in early April) resulted in an ~$80 gain, for a net gain over the three trades of ~$20 (less commissions, taxes, and my sanity).

See why I call it the Idiot Wave? 

Click to enlarge, get a bigger monitor, dummy

No Limit Hold'em Poker Tournaments Near Me

Added on by C. Maoxian.

del Lago Poker Room -- Tyre, NY (less than an hour drive, totally acceptable)

  • 10 table poker room coming next February, they say

Tioga Downs Poker Room -- Nichols, NY (1 hour drive, acceptable)

  • 12 table poker room opened December 2, 2016

Turning Stone Poker Room -- Verona, NY (1½ hour drive, semi-acceptable)

Mohegan Sun Pocono Poker Room -- Plains Township, PA (2¼ hour drive, borderline crazy)

Seneca Salamanca Poker Room -- Salamanca, NY (near Bradford, PA) (2½ hour drive, crazy)

Seneca Niagara Poker Room -- Niagara Falls, NY (3 hour drive, really crazy)

Parx Casino Poker Room -- Bensalem, PA (4 hour drive, totally crazy)

  • Looks like they have only one no limit hold'em tournament daily (different stakes every day), that's it.  

Movies Watched -- About Elly

Added on by C. Maoxian.

In Persian. 119 minutes so at least 20 to 30 minutes too long. Streamed on Netflix so no possibility to fast forward. I think a lot of it gets lost in translation. For an ignorant American like me, I don't know anything about Iran or Persian culture, but the basic conflict here is between modernity and traditional values and the secular world and the sacred. It was interesting to me to see the level of development in Iran, it looked poor, like China did 15 years ago. 

A group of educated professionals from Tehran go to the seaside (the Caspian sea) for a weekend. Three couples plus one of their old classmates (Ahmad), recently divorced and living in Germany, and a pretty teacher acquaintance (Elly) whom they are trying to hook up with Ahmad. Elly disappears and they don't know if she has drowned or run away. The writer/director (yes, a W.D. By movie) is interested in group dynamics and human nature and how small lies can build up and things (relationships) can fall apart fast when strained (think Lord of the Flies).

Anyway, there are also class issues here (the slack-jawed bumpkins they rent a house from represent rural, unsophisticated, religious society, I guess) that the director explored a lot more thoroughly in another movie of his ("A Separation," which I really liked). It turns out that Sepideh, this stunningly beautiful woman, knew that Elly was engaged to another man before she tried to hook her up with Ahmad, and this is a major no-no in religious Iran (apparently religious fundamentalists are in power there, and they have rules about how engaged women should behave). Elly shouldn't even have gone with them in the first place, and they resent the pickle she's placed them in (even more than they mourn her death).

If you're interested in Persian culture, and this sacred/secular, modern/traditional divide, then you should see it. It gets a yellow rating from me (not green, not red).

Here's my master list of all the movies from 2015 that I've watched.

Radiant Sepideh, still lying

Radiant Sepideh, still lying

Movies Watched -- Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter

Added on by C. Maoxian.

In Japanese and English. 105 minutes, but felt longer, probably because I streamed it via Amazon Prime (no fast forwarding). This a W.D. By movie, two brothers named Zellner (not Coen), obviously fans of David Lynch. A bizarre movie, not mainstream, the average Joe would hate this, but I didn't mind it, gets a yellow at least. It's about a mentally ill Japanese woman with great cheekbones and lips. She sees the funny scene in Fargo where Buscemi buries the money in the snow (with the long look in both directions, the classic Coen Brothers' joke), and sets out to find it, arriving in snowy Minnesota dressed like Little Red Riding Hood (or the  matchstick girl). 

There are many little set pieces that are funny, but the underlying feeling here is tragedy, this is bleak stuff, really really grim, so you have to be in the mood for it, which I strangely was. Rinko Kukuchi is a good actress.  The reason it doesn't get a green is captured by this reviewer's closing line: "Kumiko feels like a collection of amusing and/or depressing riffs stitched together within a context that barely matters."

Here's my master list of all the movies from 2015 that I've watched.

In search of untold riches ... but mental health is no joke. 

In search of untold riches ... but mental health is no joke. 

India (INP) To Fall Another 15% From Here

Added on by C. Maoxian.

When I wrote about the VWO last July, my Twitter buddy @kaushikgala mentioned that the set-up looked like it might apply to the Indian stock market as well. I only follow the INP, so I looked at it, and sure enough, it was more or less the same thing ... I thought it might run as high as $72-$74 before reversing.

The target for INP is around $51 which is a little more than 15% down from here (around 27% from a perfectly timed short entry in September). It has been going down in a straight line recently, but I'd expect it to back and fill its way down to $51 over many months ... it takes time to reach targets taken from the weekly charts.

Click to enlarge

Movies Watched -- Amy

Added on by C. Maoxian.

128 minutes so at least 30 minutes too long. This was on my list of 80 "non-documentary" movies to watch from 2015 since it was mis-categorized at Rotten Tomatoes as "Art House," instead of "Documentary," so I've removed it from that list. Anyway, I like a few Amy Winehouse songs, and I did recognize her talent the *first* time I heard her (one of those stop-everything-who-is-*that*-singing moments), so I was interested in watching this.

She was troubled by some demons (depression, bulimia, etc.) which gave rise to her musical brilliance, and unfortunately she was never able to balance her crazy side with her creativity (often the case). She was responsible for her demise, but her idiot boyfriend and greedy father come off especially badly in this movie. She tried to keep the demons down with booze and pot, and later some really hard drugs, but then back to booze, which I think eventually did her in. If you're interested in her music, and creative geniuses in general, you'd enjoy watching this documentary (though overly long). I don't give documentaries the green, yellow, red treatment ... they're all targeted at niche audiences.

Rex's review: "...it’s difficult to summon much sympathy for the depravity that drove her to a form of generic suicide."

Just a kid ... dead at 27.

Just a kid ... dead at 27.

A Collection of I Told Ya So's

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Please note the time stamps:

Emerging Markets Should Fall To New Lows

Added on by C. Maoxian.

You'll recall my post from the end of July titled, Emerging Markets Run About Done ... the price of VWO was around $37 at that time and went as high as $38.87 in September, so "about done" wasn't a bad call then. Here's my updated chart ... the target remains below $27 and price would have to rally above $39 to get me out of my several short entries. 

Click to enlarge

Trump Victory Bearish for Twitter

Added on by C. Maoxian.

I've been avoiding Twitter like the plague ever since the election, and I assume I'm not alone in doing so. I used to open it religiously first thing in the morning, but now I can't bear to read through my various lists, let alone spend hours (?) scrolling back through hundreds of tweets in classic OCD fashion.

I anticipated The Donald's victory, but that doesn't mean I want to be reminded about the absurdity of it all. Turn off and tune out is the order of the day, I'd say. This may be the thing that finally cures my Twitter addiction, hurray!

Twitter's stock price, as you can see below, has created a very messy chart which has frustrated this simple "trend follower." Despite buying last June, I missed the exit at $25.25 where everyone on Twitter told me they sold, and in fact made only 42 cents from my entry in the end (before commissions and taxes). Now I'm short and losing money (so far). 

Click to enlarge

They Listen To The Weather

Added on by C. Maoxian.

24-year-old Björk here, she looks about 14, stunningly beautiful ...  watching this performance, it reminds me how much she influenced 王靖雯 (Faye Wong). 

Current Cars That Interest Me

Added on by C. Maoxian.

I was surfing around the various auto manufacturers' websites looking at cars ... they're all so boring now, but I did find a few that interest me. I left out the Bentleys, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, etc., which are all over-the-top.  (Click on the images to enlarge them.) 

Update: I've added a Bentley and a Porsche due to popular demand. I *do* prefer orange or yellow paint. 

Alfa Romeo 4C Coupe

New York license plate would ruin that lovely front end. From $55,900.

Different wheels here

Bentley Continental GT Speed

In Orange Flame with 21" Sports 5 Spoke Directional - Painted wheels. 633 horsepower. From $239,400.

BMW Z4 and BMW M4

Z4 is an expensive Miata? From $49,700.

M4 in a nice color. 425 horsepower. From $66,200.

Could be Japanese from this angle

Dodge Challenger

392 HEMI® Scat Pack SHAKER. 485 horsepower. From $43,795.

Fiat 124 Spider

Mazda copied this for their Miata? (A fellow Twitterer tells me this is made at Mazda's plant in Hiroshima) From $24,995.

Ford Mustang Shelby GT350R

I like it in this yellow with black roof and mirrors. 526 horsepower. From $61,000.

Hyundai Genesis and Hyundai Veloster

Looks like an old Toyota Celica maybe? From $34,645.

This thing is kind of ugly, but it appeals to me for some strange reason. From $23,950.

Infiniti Q60

400 horsepower and looks slick, yes boring, but slick ... chrome accents help. From $51,300.

Jaguar F Type

Not on a Ford Taurus frame, I hope ... hate that name badge on the side, a dealbreaker. From $61,400.

Lexus RC F

I do like that outrageous grille ... lovely blue paint ... 467 horsepower. From $64,165.

Over and under exhaust pipes nice, rest sort of dullsville

Little dull from the side, those wheels are nice though

Looks Beemerish in motion here ... love that orange

Mazda MX-5 Miata

This came out nearly 30 years ago, right? Timeless. Wiki P. says original release in May 1989. From $24,915.

Mercedes-Benz AMG GTS

Only Mercedes in the entire line that is interesting. 500 horsepower. Perfect for runs to the supermarket. From $111,200.

Nissan 370Z and Nissan GT-R

Oldie now, but still near perfect ... those wheels are slick and I love yellow paint. 350 horsepower. From $29,990.

Looks a bit funny from the side, but I like that paint color. 565 horsepower. From $109,990.

Porsche 911 Turbo S

In Lava Orange with 20" 911 Turbo S wheels. 580 horsepower. From $188,100.

Subaru BRZ / Toyota 86

Subaru makes them, also branded as "Toyota 86." From $25,495.

Ice Silver, Pure Red, WR Blue Pearl 

Tweets for November 7, 2016

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Tweets for November 6, 2016

Added on by C. Maoxian.