Dirty Dozen, Long Only Portfolio, End of April 2017

Added on by C. Maoxian.

I introduced the Dirty Dozen portfolio earlier this month. I track a dozen popular stocks using a *monthly* trend following system. It might be interesting to know my take on these stocks if you hold any of them. I did settle on Chipotle as the twelfth stock, which readers overwhelmingly nominated. 

  1. Amazon
  2. Amgen
  3. Apple
  4. Chipotle
  5. Facebook
  6. Gilead
  7. Google
  8. Netflix
  9. NVIDIA
  10. Starbucks
  11. Tesla
  12. Twitter

There are no changes this month, but NVIDIA is at an interesting point ... it's the longest-held position and the biggest winner ... it will be telling when the monthly trend finally turns down.

ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- May 1, 2017

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Taking a quick, large loss in the XIV and reversing short (by getting long it) ... and scratching my Euro short and getting long (by selling it short).  I know it's confusing, I should change the terminology in the spreadsheet and will try to remember to do so next week.

Summary of Interview with Trader "AT09"

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Here's my bullet-point summary of this interview with a trader named Alex, "AT09"

  • 22 years old, trading for three years
  • Found penny stock chat room, doesn't say which, Sykes' probably?
  • Bought "breakouts" and got "dumped on," lost all his money
  • Sold his car rims to fund his second account, total $2,000
  • Avoided "Pattern Day Trader" rule with offshore account
  • Found new chat room via Twitter, "Investors Underground"
  • Discovered that you could sell short, "blew his mind"
  • Hooked on shorting after making gains in "VVGL" [since de-listed?]
  • "Intoxicated" by making money on the short side, started shorting indiscriminately, bad idea
  • Junk companies gapping 100% in summer 2015, "BIOC" "ITEK" "OGEN" "BLPH" "NVAX"
  • In the right place at the right time, shorting junk, summer 2015
  • Doubled share size from 500 to 1000 shares
  • "DRYS" ... company is "complete dogshit," and "toxic"
  • Made ~$66K shorting "DRYS," big size and patiently held "long term"
  • Account grew to around $10K when he "started finding success," wired excess out
  • Once you increase size, you can't go back, taste of large gains too intoxicating 
  • Made $100K+ in one day: Short "DCIX," "ESEA," "GSL," "SINO" (long and short)
  • Can't put size on in "shitty, no volume stocks" ... don't rush it
  • First chat room, people were "bullshitting around" [not unlike the poker table]
  • Hard to find people who are legit, actually making money [ain't that the truth, Teresa]
  • "IPCI" "MCUR" made multiple thousands trading these in a day ["MCUR" since de-listed?]
  • Value of watching people with different styles, day traders vs. swing traders
  • Seeing how people scale into a trade (on DVD they're selling) is invaluable
  • Made $66K on "CLTF" short, summer 2015 [since de-listed?]
  • "CraigTrader" taught him to sell/cover half, hold half
  • Flipped a house to gain real estate experience, made $30K, took six months, didn't enjoy it
  • Made $100K in July 2016 when "small caps came back," doing what he loved
  • More of a position trader now since helping with his Dad's small business
  • Not a day trader now, can't be in front of screen all day long
  • Making more money as swing trader than as a day trader
  • Doesn't want to be stressed making $1,000 a day, doesn't want to force things
  • Patiently waits for "niche" plays, takes large position, patiently holds
  • Wants to hold for weeks on end, save his mental energy, not spend it on day trades
  • Follow him on Twitter: AT09

Reviving the Daily Trading Idea

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Now that I'm in front of the screen full-time once again, I've decided to revive the Daily Trading Idea newsletter. Every night I send out a trade idea for the following weekday. You can sign up by emailing me at maoxian@gmail.com or filling out the contact form

The ideas are always simple and straightforward, taken from the daily chart. I'll keep a spreadsheet in Google Sheets that tracks their progress, which anyone can look at at any time. And I plan to share short videos of any day trades I make in the daily trading ideas. 

Here's the idea for Monday, April 24, 2017. Short $BIDU. The green line marks the entry area, red line marks the protective stop area, and purple line marks the target area. Sign up by email since I won't be posting these to the blog or Twitter ... it will be a strictly "members only" thing ... free for now, of course. 

Click to enlarge

Dirty Dozen, Long Only Portfolio, End of March 2017

Added on by C. Maoxian.

I'm going to apply the same trend-following system that I use for my ETF Trading Portfolio to these dozen popular stocks. Sharp readers will notice that there are currently only 11 stocks in the portfolio, so I'm looking for reader suggestions for the twelfth stock (Chipotle maybe?). These are the eleven I came up with so far:

  1. Alphabet (Google)
  2. Amazon
  3. Amgen
  4. Apple
  5. Facebook
  6. Gilead
  7. Netflix
  8. NVIDIA
  9. Starbucks
  10. Tesla
  11. Twitter

Unlike the ETF Trading Portfolio, this is a long-only portfolio ... when a stock flips short, I simply close the long position and go to cash. You can see that Facebook and Tesla are the most recent positions put on in April and February, respectively.  I plan to update this table at every month end.

A Method to His Madness

Added on by C. Maoxian.

I have been following this day trader on Twitter for a couple of weeks now. He reveals quite a bit about how he operates and has several dozen videos on YouTube which I found instructive. Let me walk you through his stock selection routine (as I understand it).

He tweets his watch list every morning before the open:

All of these tickers are drawn from the Up Gappers screen using Trade Ideas (an invaluable tool I highly recommend).

GNCMA was a buyout, but I'm not sure why he skipped over GBR. In any event, he put the next six tickers on his watch list. They're all low-float, mostly single-digit priced stocks. 

At the open he narrows down the list further by watching what is on the move just after the market opens. Again he uses Trade Ideas for this. Watch his Trade Ideas setup videos (one and two) to understand the filter criteria he uses: 

Then at the end of the day he always posts his P&L (which I think is a little nuts since it gives one "performance pressure," but maybe he thrives on it):

So we can see that he did in fact trade BNTC (long), CYCC (long), and DFFN (short). He doesn't generally reveal how much size he's doing and *never* reveals his exact entries and exits (for obvious reasons). Nevertheless it's worth studying his stock selection routine and I recommend you follow him on Twitter if you are a fellow (or aspiring) day trader.

Gilberto Santa Rosa Medley

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Nice to see that Gilberto in his mid-fifties, double-chinned, mustache-less and wearing glasses, is still able to belt out all the old hits and do a little soft-shoe shuffle. Backup singers, "20 feet away," shown to advantage.... 

Suicide or Local Dope

Added on by C. Maoxian.

This Dutch guy reminds me of Nick Cave ... have your young son watch the video to see how attractive young women respond to hideous old guys *who are making music.* It might inspire him to take up an instrument (even a ukulele will do). 

Weight Watchers Progress -- Month Two

Added on by C. Maoxian.

(Please first read my Weight Watchers Progress -- Month One post for background, how I did not actually *join* Weight Watchers, and my original tips for success.)

First Things First

I weighed in at the end of December 2016 at 206.5 pounds and weighed in at the end of January 2017 at 198 pounds for a loss of 8.5 pounds on the month. Oddly I was disappointed by this excellent result. I did have quite a few days in the month where I "blew out" the point range, consuming two or even three times the recommended amount, but I quickly got back on the bandwagon after those special occasions.

It makes sense that the rate of weight loss would begin to decline, but I was "anchored" on the ten pounds a month idea, which is a little crazy. To have lost ~20 pounds in two months is great and I'm feeling good.

New Daily Point Range

As I explained in my month one post, I could only consume 26.5 points of food a day while in the 200 to 224 pound range. Once you go under 200 pounds and enter the 175 to 199 pound range, you have to reduce your food allowance to 24.5 points. I am unwilling to do this. Also, I would like to reintroduce beer into my diet (one bottle is 3 points and I limit it to one bottle a day). So, I'm not expecting to lose any weight in month three, or maybe a little bit... stablizing around the 195 pound mark would be nice.

Exercise

I still row religiously (Concept2), 30 minutes a day as I've done for 20 years, through fit and fat, and it doesn't make a huge difference when it comes to weight loss, I don't think. Of course it's better to do it than not do it, but you could take a 30 minute walk or do some similarly modest exercise and get the same benefit no doubt.

Cheating Your Sweet Tooth

One of my key tips for success from month one was sucking on Ricola Honey Herb drops whenever you have a hankering for sweets, which for me is about once an hour. Nobody has a sweeter sweet tooth than me, but these little drops sate me when I'm jonesing for sugar.

Honig-Krauter, baby.

Honig-Krauter, baby.

Cheating Your Salty/Savory Tooth

My new key tip for success from month two is Seaweed Snacks. Just as I have a hankering for sugar every hour, I also have a hankering for salt every hour, and the way to deal with it is to eat a package of roasted, salted seaweed. My kids grew up in China, so they naturally like this snack, but it's a foreign taste for a redneck like me who grew up in Appalachia, an acquired taste. I've learned to like it though.

Two problems with these snacks: the packaging is very wasteful (bad for Mother (Earth)), and they're expensive ... maybe 40 to 90 cents a package, I don't know the exact number. But it's worth it if it's keeping you from snacking on other stuff and getting fat. Wegmans has a family pack for $6, but I can find less expensive, better quality ones in my local Chinese grocery. (I'll post a picture of that brand once I buy another bag.)

12 pack is $6

12 pack is $6

Going Forward

I will write a post at the end of month three, but don't expect any additional progress, just stabilization. I can say unequivocally that the Weight Watchers program is a good one ... a smart, safe, sensible and effective method for weight loss. Go to eBay and buy a PointsFinder card and you'll be on your way!