Which Party Will Win the Electoral College in 2020?

I took a look at PredictIt’s Electoral College map (below) and put the numbers into a spreadsheet.

The election will be decided by a handful of swing states. Assuming the incumbent wins all the swing states which are tilting his way (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, etc.), he only needs to win Pennsylvania and some combination of either Arizona or Michigan or Wisconsin to be re-elected, which seems to be a pretty low bar. Of course in 2016 he won all four of those states, which was no surprise to me. This election is a harder call than the last one, but I think the incumbent has a very good chance to win.

V45 Hits on September 24, 2020

Rare day where I got lucky number eight stocks hitting on my V45 scan … all about banking sick coin, my bros.

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The Simpsons S01 E03

“Looks like there's a little leftover nuclear waste. No problem. I'll just put it where nobody'll find it for a million years. So, now you know the whole true story of nuclear energy, our no longer misunderstood friend. So, keep on smilin'.”

The Simpsons S01 E02

“If you ask me, humankind has freedom... a freedom fraught with paradoxes. Freud shows how childhood shapes our subconscious mind... but this helps us to think for ourselves.”

The Simpsons S01 E01

“I wish that you wouldn’t [trash my father]. Because, aside from the fact that he has the same frailties as all human beings, he’s the only father I have. Therefore, he is my model of manhood, and my estimation of him will govern the prospects of my adult relationships. So I hope you bear in mind that any knock at him is a knock at me. And I am far too young to defend myself against such onslaughts.“

Movies Watched -- Beanpole (2020)

139 minute running time so at least 40 minutes too long … not a feel-good story, Russian women living with the traumas of war … first-time actresses and the kid who directed it is 28 years old, impressive … I didn’t hate it, but I also can’t recommend it, unless you’re a glutton for Russian punishment. I liked that the Party official and his beautiful, ice-cold wife lived in a mansion and had a Mercedes.

Dick Brody wasn’t thrilled: “… showy performances and photogenic moments. But the characters don’t seem to exist outside the stilted drama of their individual scenes.“

You wouldn’t rate a bread crust…

Movies Watched -- Distant (2002)

105 minute running time… I like all of Ceylan’s movies, but this is arthouse stuff, a mainstream audience couldn’t make it 10 minutes in … life in Turkey reminds me a lot of life in China, the poverty, the urban/rural, secular/sacred divide, ancient empires, etc. I laughed when I watched the trailer for this because how can you make a trailer for these cerebral movies about nonevents and people’s inner lives and what it means to be alone?

I’m not going to give it a green-go and instead direct everybody to see Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, which I think is Ceylan’s masterpiece.

Miraculously the Washington Post movie review links from ~15 years ago still work, and I always appreciated Stephen Hunter’s take on things before the internet killed his job. “That's what I think. And that's a Western secularist's view, unexpanded by any spiritual meaning.“ He was funny.

So what are your plans?

Movies Watched -- The Thin Man (1934)

90 minute running time but I wasn’t in the mood for a “witty repartee” movie from the early 30s… the mystery wasn’t interesting … I don’t know why it was a hit, must have been an escapist thing following the Depression, but it doesn’t hold up well 90 years later, it’s just annoying.

My wife's on a bender. I'm trying to sober her up.

Chief White Person

From Nicholas Lemann’s interview on Booknotes:

“I think clearly Lyndon Johnson did the most for people in the great migration, or for black America in general. It's easier to point to what he did for George Hicks than it is to point to what he did for Mrs. Haynes, although he did things for both.

Mrs. Haynes' grandchildren are all in Head Start, a program that Lyndon Johnson started. Her, you know, basic benefit on--on—on Social Security is higher, thanks to Lyndon Johnson and succeeding presidents. If she gets sick, she's taken care of through Medicare and Medicaid, a Lyndon Johnson program. Some of her grandchildren, I think, are going to end up going to college. The grants they get will probably be grants that were instituted by Lyndon Johnson. The reason that she can go into any place in Clarksdale--if she gets sick she can go to Clarksdale hospital. The reason she doesn't have to ride on the back of the bus anymore and the reason she can vote is because of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, passed by LBJ; Voting Rights Act of 1965, passed by LBJ.

To some extent, you can argue that George Hicks lives where he lives today because of the Fair Housing Act of '68 passed by LBJ. I think there is no question--there isn't anyone close; there isn't any second place--that LBJ did the most of--for black America in the panoply of white American politicians.”

Movies Watched -- Three Monkeys (2008)

109 minute running time … yes, I’m on a Nuri Bilge Ceylan kick since I loved Once Upon a Time in Anatolia and really liked The Wild Pear Tree. Three Monkeys was less successful and doesn’t get a green-go rating. The story just wasn’t that interesting … loyalty, adultery, cycles of violence or exploitation, family tragedies which poison things forever (a.k.a, ghosts), class, money, power, etc. It wasn’t bad, the acting is first rate, it was just a little drawn out, and as I said, the story itself didn’t really hold me, but you can see that Ceylan was on the road to his later greatness at this stage.

As if it’s the first time she’s lied.