Movies Watched -- A Quiet Passion (2017)

Added on February 28, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

126 minute running time so at least 26 to 36 minutes too long. A W.D. By movie ... Terence Davies is gay, of course. The life and death of Emily Dickinson. Watched it at 2x because it's a period piece and talk talk talk. If you're interested in Dickinson, or poetry, or the lives of isolated, intelligent, upper class women in mid-19th C. New England (the "anguished artist"), then you might like it. Cynthia Nixon is well cast as the homely Dickinson, as is her attractive sister, Jennifer Ehle, who looks great for her age (my age).

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 70

Added on February 28, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

Episode 70 ... Jeff Davis (76:31)

Grew up in farm country two hours north of New York
[Sounds like a two pack a day smoker]
Didn't go to college
Worked for US postal service, in processing center, night shift
Voracious reader of magazines and newspapers at work
30 years old then [late 1990s?], married, had baby and mortgage
Wanted to be his own boss, attracted to day trading
$25,000 minimum to join an LLC trading firm
1999, Harbor Securities, firm blown up by one trader [not him]
Didn't matter since he'd pretty much lost all his money anyway
Saved more money, went to Bright Trading next
Passed series 7, sat on a desk in the city, surrounded by traders
Worked night shift at USPS, day traded during day, slept on train [wow]
Was breakeven at Bright
March 2000 he went full time [how about that timing?]
Learned how not to lose while at Bright
Learned how to short
At Bright, you picked one stock and specialized in it
Trade with the specialist, not against him
Most of his problems were mainly him
Made money in the morning, gave it back in the afternoon
Sep. 11, 2001 last day of trading at office at Bright (next to Towers)
Afterwards traded from home, lonely and hard but also good
Guys who focused made money, people who didn't adapt were gone
Got Lyme Disease, got sick, couldn't trade ... inspired him to automate
You can't fiddle along with trading, bad things happen in life so you have to seize opportunities
Exchanged his mentoring with a programmer who coded up a "tape reading tool"
In 2005, Russell re-balance provided a lot of opportunities, he saw this
His brother also a computer programmer, wrote a program to take advantage of index rebalancing
Found programmers who also traded, they understood what he wanted
Should have learned Fortran and Cobol in high school but didn't
In his early 50s now, wouldn't even think about learning how to program now
If you're in your 20s, definitely learn how to program, or find someone who can program for you
Avoid the rabbit holes
If you're searching for edge, you're definitely going to go down some rabbit holes (curve fitting, etc.)
Nobody has ever run a bad backtest
Trend following hard to do when you have a 30-40% win rate, people give up
Nothing out of the can is going to work for everybody [or anybody]
You have to work hardest on you .. your psychology
Your strategy has to fit your personality
He has now achieved "mature simplicity" ... it's not what you add, it's what you take away, less is more
Find something where you can get size on, where you're confident
You're in a risk business, you don't want to make a salaryman's wage
His algorithm is now trading the S&P futures
Mean reversion strategy -- most days are range days
Range prediction algorithm -- knows probability of daily range, will fade spikes
Yesterday's high or low is hit 88% of the time
VWAP is the target on most of his trades
When price gets away from VWAP, that's where he gets interested
Range is a well-kept secret (Cooper, Crabel, Raschke have done lots of work on it)
Be aware of "market regime" even though you're day trading
Everything he does is based on Average True Range
For example, a 22 handle move will revert at least 5 handles 70% of the time
People can't stick with their systems
Automated systems with tight stops don't work -- then you fiddle with the stops
Old traders just do the same thing in the same way every day
When you're trading right, it's boring, it's just execution
Throw away what the crowd is doing
So much trading wisdom from the past ("the trend is your friend") not relevant for day traders
Don't be a hamster on a wheel
You have to stick with your system, only possible if it fits your personality
"Averaging is groping for the top or bottom"
He doesn't scale, he just goes all in [scales out in two pieces however]
He never chases
If nothing sets up, don't push the button
Picture a pool filled with sharks, that's what you're jumping into to make money
Overtrading is the downfall of most failing traders
Many are operating on tilt, jumping from strategy from strategy
Always knows what he's risking, structured identically, dollar loss pre-determined
No slippage on his stops in SP futures
Traders always rode in last train car in case of derailment [always thinking about risk]
Good traders are not jacks of all trades, they specialize
Your strategy has to be about getting size on, otherwise there's no point
"Single digit midgets"
You get confidence from specializing
Two regimes: expansion and contraction
Tracks range of one minute SP to make sure his stop is "outside of the noise"
He went from having tight stops to having wide stops -- to protect him from himself
He knows the percentage of the time his wide stop will get hit -- he never fiddles with it
With tight stops, he'd be liable to fiddle with them
You need to be able to trade your system without feeling the urge to fiddle with it
Once comfortable with strategy, with your stops, your dollar losses, then you can build up your size
Exits in two pieces: first piece getting him 2.5 points on average, gets instant gratification, lets second piece take its time (averaging 7 points)
Two to one win rate on his mean reversion trades [1R losers, 4.75R winners]
He's out there to help people, esp. persistent guys who don't lose money but don't make big money
Day trading is not a hobby, not an action junkie thing, it's a business, take it seriously
Says some kind things to Aaron in parting
Twitter: @Shaq48_Trading

Movies Watched -- Your Name (Kimi No Na Wa) (2017)

Added on February 26, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

106 minutes so close to the sacred 100 minute mark, but I still watched it at 1.5x because I've generally had bad luck with anime -- it creeps me out ("Spirited Away" disturbed me so much that I nearly vomited) ... this one was a little better in the sense that it didn't *completely* give me the heebie-jeebies ... but still, it's strange and sort of awful when you really think about it.

The animation is amazing, it's incredibly dense and complex -- and the main story is kind of interesting (the kids switching places in time-space), but there's something about animation from Japan ("anime") that just seems off ... the mysticism, the dreaminess, the hyper-reality ... I just have a nagging feeling that there are some real sickos behind it.

You'll love it if you love anime ... could give it a shot if you've never seen one before ... but it's a red for the general audience.

Rasta No Fool

Added on February 25, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

Big hit when I was six years old... I remember it well.

ALBUM: COOL RASTA LABEL: TROJAN RECORD DATE: 1976

Movies Watched -- Raw (2017)

Added on February 23, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

In French. 98 minutes so within the sacred 100 minute mark, but I still watched it at 1.5x because I'm not into horror generally, esp. horror from France.

A vet school is a good place to stage a horror movie though. Made in France, so attractive young women wander around in their underwear at length (see below). The lead girl was cute as was her butchy sister, when they weren't cannabilizing anyway. Not for the squeamish!

SPOILERS: Pair of sisters, both in vet school, discover they have a taste for human flesh, thanks a lot, Mom. It's not badly made, it's just gross and I wasn't thrilled.

If you're into horror movies, you might like it. There were some funny bits to lighten up the vats of blood being thrown around. Yellow rating for horror fans, red for a general audience.

A funny review by Jeffrey Bloomer.

Movies Watched -- My Life As A Zucchini (2017)

Added on February 22, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

66 minute running time ... I still had to fast forward from 20 minutes in. Animation from France. Not for kids. Supposed to be heartwarming and uplifting, I suppose, but I just found it depressing -- orphans, abused children ... dark stuff, you know. Hideous claymation characters (see below). Just awful, and no child should ever see this. Red rating.

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 20

Added on February 21, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

Episode 20 ... Kunal Desai (65:15)

Likes Costa Rica, it's like "Jurassic Park"
Dad is an engineer, always dabbled in the stock market, "the worst trader in the world"
Graduated high school during the dot com boom, everyone was a day trader
Opened first account with "buyandholdtrading.com"
Looked for ideas at MSN Money, Jim Jubak
Lost all his money in less than a week during dot com bust
Lost all his money again in Global Crossing, Nortel Networks, Lucent Technologies bust
Had years of this kind of up and down disappointment
These losses taught him how to be resilient
Met Paul Singh online
Indian people love to get free stuff from other Indian people
Desai had knowledge but no trading methodology
Had to corral what he knew and make a cookbook, systematize his knowledge
Build routines to build a trader
How do you size your position? You have to have a method
People freeze when they have a loss, deer in headlights, can't get out
A-ha moments come from competence and then repetition, practice time
Competence plus screen time, you begin seeing things clearly
People give up or blow up before they get requisite screen time
Takes thousands of repetitions, simulated or live or trade reviews, to reach a-ha moment
Took Desai *years* to get profitable
Paul Singh, veteran trader, passed down his knowledge to him
Took another year before he said, yes, I can do this forever
How long do doctors and lawyers go to school before they make a buck? Years! Trading no different
Desai trades momentum stocks, a trend trader, both long and short
Read William O'Neil, made sense to him, better matched his personality than Buffett buy and hold
Earnings breakouts the most powerful thing he has seen in trading
Good daily chart an absolute necessity
Earnings surpises are the best, people rush in
High relative volume makes patterns very clean
Being a generalist will not make you money
Master one or two things, better than knowledge of 20 or 30 things
Mastery takes the thinking out of a trade
Once a stock gets in play, you trade it both long and short, keep it on your radar
Must understand your own personality, what you're comfortable with, what fits you
If you're uncomfortable, you're not going to trade well
Find something that you "vibe" with
He can't tame himself, he's a wild, aggressive man and accepts that
He has max loss on his trading account, $2,000 a day is his max ... stops trading at -$2,000 mark
Live to fight another day
When you see the market well, push it
Give back rule: if you give back half your gains, cut yourself off
He experiences FOMO a lot, worse for him than taking losses
"You chase, you die" -- condition yourself to know this
Market gives you endless opportunities, "on to the next one"
"Skills are cheap, passion is priceless" ... don't get into trading for the money
People without passion give up at the first sign of trouble
Long, rocky road to trading success ... need passion to get through it
It takes years and years and years before you make any money
You can't date, you miss weddings, birthday parties, etc.
You have to work like a dog, long hours, huge cost
Desai had desk job while he was learning how to trade, he was obsessed with trading though
His successful students all have incredible resilience
"Oh shit, this is going to be hard." People quit.
People get frustrated and give up, even with the simulator
Once people start live trading, their money is on the line, they go to dark places, the resilient make it
Lots of talented people just give up once they get knocked down
You are not trading chart patterns, you are trading your hopes and dreams
Can't learn how to trade when you need the money from trading
Every good trader is in good shape, no fatties, "get your pump on"
He needs to trade with a beach view, helps him maintain his perspective
Whoever you are, it will come out in your trading, get to the root of it
Everbody knows the patterns, everybody knows what to do, but only 1% can actually do it
bullsonwallstreet.com (est. 2008)
You need a mentor, a community, to learn how to trade
"My man!"
Twitter: kunal00

Movies Watched -- Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer (2017)

Added on February 19, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

118 minute running time so at least 18 to 28 minutes too long. A weird one, I fast forwarded from 20 minutes in. Casting a gentile like Richard Gere (a Methodist who converted to Buddhism no less) to play someone named Norman Oppenheimer is nearly as mysterious as casting Steve Buscemi as a rabbi. Anyway, that aside, it is a sad story, the tragic end is not an understatement.

The Jewish macher as someone lovable ... (macher from maker, a person who gets things done, but it does have the negative connotation of "fixer") ... he's not shady so much as he is a cipher ... a nobody desperately trying to be somebody ... these are sad ideas. Maybe if it had been 90 minutes long, I could have watched it at normal speed and enjoyed it, but no, it's overly long. Yellow rating.

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 65

Added on February 19, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

Episode 65 ... Brett Steenbarger (59:20)

Read The Fountainhead by Ayn Rand as sophomore in college
Thought psychology could be used to make people do their best
University of Kansas grad school, late 1970s, political psychology degree
Trading his avocation, psychology his vocation -- parallel interest
The Psychology of Trading, his first book, written in 2000
Victor Niederhoffer, a friend and mentor, encouraged him to write a book
Teaching at Syracuse University medical school at that time
Chicago trading firm hired him away to work for them full time as trading coach
Market makers he was working with didn't use charts or fundamentals, just the book (DOM)
Pro athletes still work with coaches even after they've made it; same is true of pro traders
Markets change, traders need to evolve
Identify and build upon strengths
Now he works with several hedge funds and financial firms as a consultant
Market volatility expands and contracts, traders need to adapt to that
Separate logical from psychological errors -- correctly identify that first
People are more sensitive to losing money than making money
Become exquisitely aware of your habits -- build self-awareness
Observe yourself, then re-channel yourself
He has four cats
Revenge trading comes from frustration, you want to make it back
Be aware that you are about to revenge trade, step away from screens, calm down
You can't change something you're not aware of
Commonalities of successful traders:

Adapting to changing markets (trends, volatility, people participating all change)
Building on strengths (day traders are good at fast thinking skills and pattern recognition; investors are slower, deeper thinkers)
Cultivating creativity (seeing the world differently from others, seeing opportunities others don't see)
Developing best practices (and turning them into best processes)

Best practices: how you generate ideas, manage positions, manage risk and reward, review your results
Trading Psychology 2.0 is his second book
You don't have to motivate yourself to eat breakfast, it's just routine
All your best trading practices should also just be routine, no motivational sticky notes on monitor needed
Repeat what you do every day until it becomes a routine ... all about repetition
Make the most of your competencies
Work around your weaknesses
Steenbarger knows he can't make markets, cognitively and emotionally he's unable to make rapid decisions and process lots of information
Steenbarger himself suffers from cognitive overload easily, needs to be able to reflect
Steenbarger tried to trade full time and absolutely hated it because he wasn't working with people [I'm the opposite]
Uses guided imagery to have traders imagine hitting their stops, losing money ... but staying calm and controlled
Effective goal setting requires a specific plan, a day to day plan
A goal without a plan is a wish
Not a fan of monetary goals -- performance anxiety is real
P&L front and center (the outcome) will mess up your processes
Better to look at improvement ... month to month, not just P&L, but risk-adjusted P&L
Make friends with loss and failure ... your losing trades teach you things, what changed?
Embrace the mistakes you make, ultimately how we become better is by learning from mistakes
Don't think about your results in dollar terms, think in percentage terms
Hard to take risk and make good decisions when you think you must succeed
Make sure you have something in your life that's more important than trading
Trading shouldn't be the major part of your life ... you need to be balanced
Traders with longevity have some source of satisfaction separate from profits
A fascination with the markets themselves could be that source of satisfaction
Website: traderfeed.blogspot.com
Twitter: @steenbab

Movies Watched -- 20th Century Women (2017)

Added on February 18, 2018 by C. Maoxian.

118 minutes long so at least 18 to 28 minutes too long. Set in Santa Barbara in 1979. Annette Bening is a 55-year-old single mother with a 15-year-old son ... she's sort of a Bohemian Mom, doin' the best she can with a teenage boy, which isn't very good. She chain smokes which may explain why she looks older than 55 (Bening is in fact 59). She has a couple of boarders in her house, and they form a sort of weird "family." I fast forwarded from 20 minutes in.

There are some funny scenes... the "family" and some hippie friends watch Jimmy Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" speech, at the end of which someone says, "Wow, he is so screwed," which made me laugh. At the dinner afterward, the pretty punk tenant (Greta Gerwig?) leads the group in saying "menstruation" together, which I found amusing. But there's no way I could have sat through two hours of this at normal speed. Yellow rating for Boomers and very early Gen-Xers (say, pre-1965 Gen-X). Anyone under 40, or especially under 30, would hate this nostalgia piece.

Dick Brody wasn't thrilled and got out his thesaurus: "the banalization of its meditative, nearly collage-like sense of memory." Melissa Anderson nails it in this brief review: "a trip back in time in which era-specific talismans substitute for genuine thought. Though big feels glut 20th Century Women, even emotion seems ersatz."