Movies Watched -- Mudbound (2017)

135 minutes with seven minutes of end credits so it's still over 30 minutes too long. Depressing and a tear-jerker. You know something horrible is going to happen the whole time (1940s Mississippi, after all), you have a sense of doom, you know, oncoming tragedy. Female star is Carey Mulligan and her funny ventriloquist dummy face. She's talented and has gotten a *lot* of work in recent years. "Mike Ehrmantraut" plays the villain ... always makes a good bad guy.

The movie wasn't badly made, it's just overly long (Rex said it should be called Stuck-in-the-Mudbound). The atrocities committed by racist white men not that long ago shouldn't be forgotten ... but it isn't entertainment. They tried to end it on an upbeat note, but it's still painful to watch. Yellow rating.

Sharing a smoke.... little nod to Michelangelo (The Creation of Adam)

Movies Watched -- Wonder Woman (2017)

141 minutes with 10 minutes of end credits which means that it's only 30 to 40 minutes too long. The trouble is the backstory takes a good 30+ minutes, the whole Princess Diana of Themyscira, Daughter of Hippolyta thing. There are so many of these comic book superhero movies now because Gen-X has taken power from the dying Baby Boomers, and these are the movies Gen-X wants. The formula is to lighten the ultra-violence with some comedy (including a big dick joke), and it largely works here.

Gal Gadot, wow, talk about the ultimate Jewish Princess. She's amazing -- tall, beautiful, great bod, sexy non-native English speaker accent. I could just watch here alone on screen for 141 minutes. Evil Germans ... who tires of German villains? Dr. Maru's face mask was well done. Matt Damon-ish guy playing the American hero (the Americans are always heroes). Hollywood movie so they throw in an Injun, a Moroccan (with fez!), and a goofy Scotsman (with kilt!) for the Sesame Street PC thing. 

It wasn't terrible, but it was just so long, and filled with CGI bullshit that I hate (looks more like a videogame at times than a movie), and the formula is tired. I can't recommend this, other than just watching it for Gal Gadot, who definitely deserves your very close attention. Yellow rating at best.

Come hither

Movies Watched -- The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (2017)

112 minutes so at least 12 to 22 minutes too long. I hated this. Watched it on Netflix so I couldn't fast forward. Talk talk talk. Screwed-up family. Whining adult children ... Adam Sandler playing a "serious" role -- always a bad sign ... Ben Stiller, ditto ... and there's Adam Driver from Girls again, that guy gets roles non-stop even though he can't act.

What could have interested me here was an exploration of religion... were all of Dustin Hoffman's wives (incl. Emma Thompson, Candice Bergen) gentiles? Were all his kids half-Jewish? Did Judaism play any role in their upbringing? Sandler's beautiful daughter is obviously a WASP, did Sandler marry outside the faith? There was not a word about any of this. His daughter makes shocking artsy porn as a freshman at Bard -- isn't that cute?

Selfish Baby Boomer dad, now a doddering old guy, screwed-up kids, who cares? If Dustin were in the hospital for two months, who paid for it? Would his healthcare plan from Bard pay for all that? Some of it was sort of funny, but not really. I suspect I'd hate every movie that Noah Baumbach makes.

Full red, avoid this movie. 

Update: Meyerowitz lawyers contacted me to take down the screencap. This makes me hate Baumbach even more.

Token black boyfriend to boot!

Movies Watched -- The Salesman (2017)

In Persian. 125 minute running time so at least 25 minutes too long. This was depressing. It was made by the same guy who did About Elly, which was also depressing, and A Separation (which I really liked). Iranian society appears to be screwed up ... I guess it's mainly an Islamic Republic thing (the "clerics' clamp," as Tony Lane put it) ... sacred versus secular / traditional versus modern, etc. All the same themes the guy explores in all his movies (marriage, money, the State), but he's also interested in examining humiliation and revenge here.

What interested me was how poor Iran looked, it reminded me of 1990s China ... terrible construction quality, ugly fixtures, cheap everything -- just depressing. I'm not going to talk about the story at all, since it's a little complicated -- it's a sort-of thriller. The movie starred some stunning Iranian women of Instagram, same as About Elly (same lead actress). Beautiful women. Can't recommend it for a general audience, but my capital A.R.T. art readers will like it ... gets a yellow rating.

SPOILERS: (I don't think any kind of sexual assault happened ... he stroked her hair, thinking she was Ahoo, and when she turned, they both freaked out and she fell and cracked her head open. He panicked and left. There was no rape. Any real "violation" never occurred ... it's just in her husband's mind.)

You lookin' at me?

No Better To Be Safe Than Sorry

Lovely cover of the seminal A-ha song from my youth by the great Rachel Price and her band of hipsters: 

There are few songs more quintessentially '80s than Norwegian band A-ha's "Take On Me." It's a synth-heavy power ballad accompanied by a high-concept music video, checking all the boxes that defined the pop music of the decade.

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 158

Episode 158 ... Phil Goedeker (62:01)

• During earnings season, small caps don't run
• Wanted to make big money before his 30s, didn't want to do a lot of schooling
• Only two routes: real estate and the stock market
• Opened first brokerage account as sophomore in college with $3,000, lost it all
• Studied everything he could, but couldn't find any consistency
• Next summer's earnings of $3,000, lost it all during junior year
• Didn't have patience to buy and hold
• Finally discovered short selling as a senior in college
• CAFE ("Host America") went from $5 to $15
• He shorted as much as he could
• CAFE was halted for a month, he was scared to death
• CAFE opened at $5 from $15 and he made $15,000 [CAFE delisted in 2005]
• Started shorting overhyped stocks exclusively during senior year
• Turned $5,000 into $1,000,000 between August (2005?) and May (2006?)
• He went all-in on every position he took, no rules, would just hope for the best
• Graduated with an accounting degree, but knew he'd never be an accountant
• Lost $500,000 by August (2006?) ... was "clueless"
• Got scared, took $400,000 out, put it in the bank, kept $100,000 for his trading bankroll -- 22 years old
• "Well hell"
• Every month, whatever he made from the $100,000 trading stake, he'd put in the bank
• Went next three to four years making half a million dollars a year -- 25 to 26 years old
• Studied all the big winning stocks on a yearly, monthly, weekly basis -- till he was "blue in the face"
• Drove a Hummer H2
• He went through everything, every mistake, every high, every low
• Never had another job other than day trading since sophomore year in college -- 13 or 14 years now
• Wanted to make $30,000-$40,000 a month with his $100,000
• Had one losing year in his late twenties when he strayed from his old style
• Went back to his old style (shorting small caps) and went back to making big money
• "Well hell"
• Tried his best to eliminate his big losing trades, "cut his losses faster"
• Increased position size on his golden setups and cut losses faster -- had even better years
• Late 2017 had some golden setups: HMNY from $2 to $37; RIOT from sub-$10 to $46 -- "hype bubbles" [charts below]
• Only plays from the short side
• Momentum names are manipulated, low float (less than five million shares), press releases to pump them up
• Cryptocurrencies are the same -- low float plus hype
• Halt risk a major concern on these plays -- need to be cautious on the long side
• Timing the shorts is difficult -- shorted 100,000 shares HMNY from $8.50, got out in high $9s -- took the loss
• Starter size (5,000-10,000 shares) in positions -- goes against him, he takes the loss; goes with him, he adds
• Never starts a short and looks to add higher ... never adds to a losing position
• Day three of a parabolic move should be a winning entry, but who knows, it often isn't
• He gets extremely aggravated entering the positon -- takes a lot of small losses
• Pays a lot of attention to volume -- only looks at price, volume, and VWAP
• Big drops on heavy volume is one of the main things he looks for
• Bases his stops off the chart ... tries to find support and resistance levels on chart
• Find your niche as a trader ... find out what you're good at
• Parabolic set-ups are what he's good at ... puts all his money behind those trades
• Timing the crash of these parabolics is the difficult part
• So excited when he sees a parabolic set-up, he can't sleep at night
• 75-80% of his trading income comes from shorting the parabolic moves
• Multi-day versus multi-week versus multi-month runners
• The higher it goes, the more conviction he has, the larger his position size
• Gotten lazy because he has two kids now
• Every year, prints out charts of all the stocks that are the year's biggest low float winners, all "pockets of air"
• Every single one of them has crashed
• Adds to his winners as they collapse, "slamming that bid"
• He might hold a winner for weeks on end
• Only overnight risk he has is a Press Release
• Mentions ETRM from 2016? [now delisted]
• Mentions KBIO ... stock went from $2 to $10 or $12 then went to $40 [now OTC]
• Seen a lot of traders blow up holding low float shorts overnight
• Wait for the backside of the move, "backside" is after it has exhausted itself [no clear definition of "backside" given]
• Slams the bid over and over and over again... he definitely moves the stock by doing this
• 95% of traders fail because they lose money [Ummm] ... they don't have their niche [OK]
• Find out what you're good at and perfect it
• Take it slow, take it in stages as you increase your position size
• Has seven or eight brokers now, essential if you're short-biased
• If you're long-biased, only need one broker
• In order to short the stuff he's shorting, the broker has to have shares available [tell me about it]
• Low float stocks -- most brokers don't have shares available
• If one broker has the shares as easy to borrow, no need to look to his other brokers
• Getting the locate is everything, without multiple brokers, you won't be able to play the low float parabolic game
• Locate fees and fees for holding overnight vary from broker to broker
• Locate fees and overnight fees are extremely high -- will take at least 10-15% of your gross profits
• He was long GBTC, didn't realize it wasn't marginable, when it dropped he got a large margin call
• He has traded beside other good traders who have blown up ... 5-, 10-, 15-year veterans who made one or two mistakes and they're gone
• "You get stubborn and you're done"
• Make sure you have a backup plan ... his is buying farmland in Missouri, then rents it to farmers
• If he blew up tomorrow, he couldn't get a job because day trading is all he has ever done
• He has owned a lot of rental properties and it's a "big pain in the butt," "nightmare tenants"
• "Well hell"
• Hired property managers to deal with tenants, then he had to manage the property managers (another nightmare)
• Farmland, he can't touch the money, and it doesn't take away from his market focus
• Farmland: zero stress, zero time, zero maintenance
• "Thank you, sir."
• Twitter: @Ozarktrades

HMNY, Daily

RIOT, Daily

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 10

Episode 10 ... Tim Grittani (52:48)

• Finance major at Marquette

• Learned that he didn't like finance

• Was into poker and sports betting in high school

• Opened account with ShareBuilder(?)

• Started randomly buying and selling 30 cent stocks

• Lost half his account within a couple of weeks

• Joined Tim Sykes' "Silver Package"

• Blindly followed trade alerts from "gurus"

• Had emotional trouble once money was on the line

• Hiding his P&L helped him become less emotional

• Went full time after six months of struggle, $1,300 in the hole

• November 2011 (?) back to breakeven

• Made a new mistake, learned something new every day for six months

• Learned to focus on a couple main set-ups

1. OTC Pump and Dumps

2. Buying multi-week or 52-week breakouts

• Frustrated with listed stocks because too many factors affecting stocks

• OTC stocks trade in a world of their own

• Learned to understand promotions run on OTC market

• Promoters have email lists with thousands of people on them

• Understood all the connected promoter websites, subscribed to all of them

• Would try to act on emails he received as fast as possible, beat the crowd on the spike up

• Would also buy breaks of daily highs on the pumped stock

• Fine line with fraud regarding stock promotions

• Learned liquidity all important

• Began short selling promotions instead of buying them

• OTC promotions would get halted and would re-open weeks later down dramatically

• OTC market dead until marijuana stocks ran in 2014

• Began short selling listed stocks in the same way he shorted OTC promotions

• When he sees patterns forming, he knows what to do

• His edge is his experience

• Spends 15 minutes every night putting together the next day's watchlist

• Lost $290,000 on a single trade, LAKE, 9.90 entry, October 2014 (chart below)

• Refused to cut his losses when mis-timed his entries, would always look to add higher

• Before LAKE, trades would always work out for him in the end, developed a bad habit

• LAKE experience taught him to cut losses

• You need the right broker for your trading strategy

• SpeedTrader best to buy OTC promotions back then

• Only trade liquid, volatile stocks

• Identify and focus on your niche

• Traded only two OTC set-ups (new promotions, breakouts), nothing else

• Trade charts and price action only (not hype)

• Everyone knows OTC stocks are garbage, but just as many listed stocks are also garbage

• Never hold and hope

• Cut losses intelligently, not necessarily quickly

• Base stops on chart, not some preconceived dollar or percentage amount

• Figure your size from your risk level ... dollar risk is constant

• "Trade the ticker, not the company" -- a Nate Michaud saying

• Couldn't live without a market scanner -- how he finds his plays

• Top percent gainers with dollar volume requirements is his main scan

• Hasn't read any trading books, but interested in trading psychology books most

• Don't waste your time following trade alerts or mimicking trades

• Just make your own trades, win or lose, figure things out on your own

• Be mindful about volume and liquidity -- avoid thin stocks

• Blog: tradetheticker.blogspot.com

• Twitter: @KroyRunner89

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 69

Episode 69 ... John Carter (66:34)

Sounds like a down to earth guy, clearly another old pro. 

• Loves the short side
• Starts the year with a $180,000 account with goal to turn into a million 
• Very aggressive trader
• Been actively trading for 25 years
• With experience comes patience
• Difference between successful and unsuccessful traders is patience
• Patience to wait for the set-up, patience to hold winners
• If you get emotional and chase, you mess up your mindset
• Opportunity cost of chasing is huge
• 18-year old working at mall in cookie store, making $4 an hour
• Saved up $1,000 over the course of a summer, bought call options on Intel
• Made $800 in a week from those call options, he was hooked [what if he lost?]
• Dad read Investor's Business Daily
• Wired as a risk taker
• Three times where he built up 10K to 100K with crazy position sizes
• Then lost it all by trying to go from 100K to 1,000K
• Mark Douglas' books helped a lot
• Stopped trying to make a million dollars
• Appetite for too much risk vesus too much fear
• If you're too fearful, you can't make a living as a trader
• Made 100K a year in the corporate world, figured he had to make the same if he traded full time
• People who are too fearful wait for confirmation and that's the exact time you should be taking profits
• Became friends with Mark Douglas
• Douglas' insights into the markets and human mind were key
• You should think probabilistically while you're in a trade -- anything can happen, no emotional attachments
• Most people try trading for two years then give up
• He used early trading profits to buy rental property
• Later sold rental property to have bigger trading stake
• Took him eight years of frustration to learn how to trade
• Average trader with right tools, it should take two years to learn how to trade
• How do you react when you have money on the line? Calmly take action or deer in headlights?
• People need to find their sweet spot
• Types of trading: day trading, swing trading, investing  
• Nearly impossible to overcome commissions when day trading
• Impossible to know what's going to happen three months out
• Two days to two weeks is his sweet spot
• Looks at 30 minute charts, that's the lowest time frame he'll look at, NEVER looks at five minute charts
• Markets pop then consolidate
• Cut his teeth on stock index futures
• Big options trader on individual stocks
• Old traders have "three set-ups and four markets" and care about nothing else
• You don't do the same trades all the time -- depends if the market is bullish or bearish
• You can be long, short, or flat
• Flat is one of the best positions -- mind is neutral
• "Don't piss away your chips" -- be patient
• One or two days a month of focus are all you need with larger than normal position size
• People who trade to alleviate their boredom piss away their capital
• To become a good trader, you have to master exits (both stop losses and targets)
• Options are priced for "expected moves" -- exit at dollar move that's priced in by options
• Huge fan of Fibonacci extensions: 1.272 odds of getting there good (take bulk off), odds of getting to 1.618 much lower
• Options nice because you can define your risk easily, you can only lose what you put up
• Selling options is fun too
• Mistake that novice options traders make is looking for cheap options
• Out of the money options are designed to suck people in and expire worthless
• If you're bullish on something: buy an in the money call and sell a put credit spread (expires worthless)
• If you're bearish on something: buy an in the money put and sell a call credit spread (expires worthless)
• Greeks are a distraction to him, he never looks at them
• Favorite set-up: "Squeeze" -- Bollinger bands are inside of the Keltner channels
• Bollinger band contraction eventually leads to range expansion
• He never looks at a chart for more than a split second
• Best set-ups are obvious instantly ... don't stare at it and force things
• All set-ups should be simple enough to explain to a twelve year old
• Any more than three indicators on a chart is too many
• Wins and losses are randomly distributed ... you need a large sample size to come to correct conclusions
• Easy to get lost in indicators, price is the most  important thing
• January 2014, (14 15 16, he can't remember), big TSLA trade [it was Jan. 13]
• Likes to track short interest ... TSLA at 40%
• TSLA had been down ten, suddenly up five
• Bought 100 call options of TSLA at $6 (account was $1.5MM)
• Ended up adding and adding, built up to 1000 call options in TSLA [half the account?]
• Trade went against him a little, so he took a shower, trade stabilized
• Sold half into close, half into next morning's gap up -- made $1.4MM
• No more million dollar day trades since then for him
• Everything came together ... takes guts to hold on to those concentrated positions
• When things happen that shouldn't happen, people are on the wrong side, big things happen
• Get on the other side of other people's pain  [I like it]
• He likes three or four large positions to 18 small positions
• Don't shotgun, be patient and focus
• When he was young, he wanted to make that one big trade
• When you're older and more confident, you have your skills and you get patient
• Anyone who trades for a living has developed confidence despite constant uncertainty
• Get comfortable being uncomfortable
• www.simplertrading.com
• 1000 members in his gold-level chat room
• Twitter: @johnfcarter -- infrequent twitterer

TV Shows Watched -- Peaky Blinders

Watched season one and enjoyed it. 

Tommy Boy, leader of the pack

Esme, gypsy princess

Aunt Polly, tough broad

Ada, also a phocking Shelby

Double-dealing Grace, where does your affection lie?

Inspector Campbell, you have my word

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 32

Repeat guest ... first heard him on Episode 66, listened out of order. 

Episode 32 ... Dan Shapiro (68:43)

• Grew up in Brooklyn
• Lacked direction in life
• Generic Trading / Carlin Equities (1999-2006),  sold to RBC [in 2007]
• Borrowed money from neighborhood loan shark
• Ron Shear at Generic Trading hired him
• Met Mayer Hoffman, great prop trader (made hundreds of millions)
• Did well during dot com boom
• Would just buy the dips and did very well
• Dot com bust and 9/11 changed everything
• Didn't make any money for two years
• Incredibly depressed, would sob himself to sleep
• End of 2003 started making money again
• People trading off their iWatches while on vacation on social media (it ain't real)
• "Here's the deal"
• Grew up poor in Brighton Beach, mom a manicurist, dad a waiter
• Tasted success trading during dot com boom, had no Plan B
• If he didn't succeed at trading, he would have killed himself (he's serious about this)
• No highs, no lows to trading, it's just work
• Wife told him he'd have to get a real job
• Make $100 a day first, then go from there
• Stocks trade in intervals, like steps in a staircase
• Stocks go from supply to supply and demand to demand
• Most stocks are not trade-able
• Most traders have no patience and no bankroll and no education
• Looks at 60 minute pivots
• Figure out who the hell you are
• Where emotional buyers meet technical sellers: the supply zone
• The more hands you play, the quicker you'll figure things out
• He'll only be 6'2" if he puts on his wife's 4" heels -- be realistic
• Figure out what not to do
• How do you mentally stay afloat? Turn off your P&L
• The more emotional you are about a trade, the more you'll mess it up
• Don't walk away from the table when you're dealt pocket aces
• Trade the set-up, not your P&L
• Can't take trading to heart, you have to have a sense of humor
• The revenge trade does not work, ever
• You can't cry your money back to you
• A lot of traders can't accept defeat
• Lose the battle, not the war
• The market takes your money and your confidence
• You don't lose your confidence, it gets transferred to another trader
• Don't let things snowball, get a massage, go to a sauna, do something nice for yourself
• Listens to Sade to get depressed which makes him angry which makes him a better trader
• Makes his money as a swing trader in a trending market
• Dumb money trades in the morning and smart money trades in the afternoon
• Will keep a good runner overnight
• Treat trading like a business, it isn't fun
• You don't serve filet mignon on a paper plate
• Mayer Hoffman, Jason Lieber -- they'd tell you if you were trading like a putz
• Hoffman taught him there's no such thing as overbought
• "Whatever goes down, should go lower"
• Price action dictates everything, opinions don't matter
• Don't fight price action
• Turn off social media, read good blogs instead, old vets
• Every trader he knows has blown out, including Mayer
• He never sells dreams, only reality
• Don't think you're alone, keep your head up
• "The rich people don't live in Times Square"
• Twitter: @DanShep55