Linda Bradford Raschke probably has a name for this one ... needs to be high percentage because the risk reward ain't great. Not for the aged.
The Great Carly Simon Nipple-itis Record Cover
You're so vain, indeed. (Sadly, later had a mastectomy.)
Summer Scooter Selection
I plan to buy a scooter next summer to zip around the countryside on ... there are two 49cc choices offered by the Japanese for tough guys like me: the Yamaha Vino and the Honda Metropolitan.
From an aesthetic viewpoint, I prefer the Vino: two-tone paint and sharper wheels. Not sure how much they differ in price. Would be nice to take the kids to school on a scooter instead of firing up the CR-Vibrator for a five minute trip twice a day. Wonder how well a 49cc machine can handle the hills of Ithaca, especially while hauling my Falstaffian bulk.
Yamaha Vino in Rosewood Brown
Honda Metropolitan in Red
GoPro Downtrend in Place Since Last Summer
Here's the complete record of how my trend-following system has handled GoPro since it IPO'd back in the summer of 2014. Some losses, a gain, but most important: disaster avoided. Again, any institution that has a frayed-shirtcuff chartist on the payroll has to be glad.
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Avoiding Disaster in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)
Again, applying my trend-following system to a single stock, this time Valeant Pharmaceuticals. Mr. Ackman clearly doesn't have a frayed-shirtcuff chartist on his staff who can identify trend reversals. For what it's worth, the system got long VRX again in early December; probably will wipe out the gain from earlier, but only time will tell.
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Now We Just Eat Nuts And Berries
No good live versions so I'm forced to link to this:
Movies Watched -- Sicario
More or less finished with the 2014 movies, so I've started on 2015.
Sicario ... didn't like this one. It's a variation on War Porn. Instead of battling A-rabs, the enemy is a Mexican drug lord. The movie is two hours long (meaning at least 20 to 30 minutes too long), and for the first hour you have no idea what's going on. The lead actress, a fashion model who has somehow become an FBI agent, also has no idea what's going on so you're as frustrated as she is.
There's a ridiculous and unnecessary road trip into Mexico to bring back "Guillermo," a brother? of the head honcho. Why not fly him over the border? The only purpose it serves is to stage this gun battle in stop-and-go traffic where a bunch of heavily tattoo'd Mexicans are blown away by Delta Force, or some Special Ops unit (just back from Afghanistan, of course ... I told you it was War Porn). Cut that whole section out and the movie would be shorter and no worse than it already is.
Anyway, the awful thing about this movie (like all War Porn) is that it doesn't just condone extra-legal means to an end, it glorifies them ... invasion, kidnapping, torture, assassination. It's morally reprehensible and rubs your face in it.
(A few logical quibbles for those who have seen it (spoilers): How does Benicio know which tunnel to go up? How does he know the corrupt cop will be delivering a load then? How does he know the little jefe will be traveling on a road near the tunnel at exactly the time he commandeers the cop car? Why does he kill a minor character like the crooked cop? Why does the big jefe only have five bodyguards around the house? And no dogs? How is Benicio able to shoot that accurately that consistently? Why are all CIA agents in the movies flip-flop wearing smartasses? And what's with the final scene? The violence continues, nothing has changed ... is that the point?)
Another viewer agrees ... "I left the film sickened and scrambled..." A.O. Scott also not thrilled: "... less an exploration than an exploitation of the moral ambiguities of the drug war."
Twitter Unfriendly to Trend Followers in 2015
Here's my trend-following system applied to Twitter in 2015 ... fairly disastrous, but if it's one of 100 positions, then it doesn't matter. Two bad whipsaws in September and October, but at least out in mid-November and no damage since.
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Avoiding Disaster in SunEdison (SUNE)
I don't usually apply my trend-following system to individual stocks since they're so volatile, but I was curious to see where the exit would have been in SunEdison (SUNE). The answer is July 27, 2015 at $25.61. The downtrend that started then has yet to reverse.
I guess the big shareholders of SUNE don't put any stock (ha!) in trend-following systems, but they would have avoided a lot of pain if they did.
(I plan to look at Chipotle, Twitter, and Valeant next, so look out for those posts.)
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ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- January 11, 2016
One change this week as QID reverses. Please read this post to understand the new portfolio.