Cutting losses in gold and emerging markets and getting short 'em. Short crude gains bailing out lots of little losses ... that's the idea with trend following.
Salix Pop, 1 Minute View
Salix Pharma (yes, another biotech stock) popped on a $175 buyout offer ... the scanner of course would pick this up at 12:40 PM and assuming you weren't at lunch (or fast asleep in China), you would have gotten in early enough to make a few bucks.
Nanex posted a millisecond chart of SLXP on Twitter ... this is a slightly better look than my $9.99 a month datafeed can give.
Acadia Pop, 1 Minute View
Rare bit of up on a very down day ... Acadia Pharma (yes, another biotech stock) moving up from the open, quietly though, not sure I would have noticed ... but at lunchtime it got unusually active and I probably wouldn't have missed it (no scanner report from last night available, but I can guess).
By the time this news appeared, the top was in of course:
Acadia Surges as Canceled Events Lead to Deal Speculation 2:36 PM EDT March 10, 2015
House of Cards -- Season Three
Finished it today, what, ten days after it was released? So not exactly a binge. The show hasn't jumped the shark quite yet, but maybe soon? The homoerotic stuff makes me uncomfortable. Kevin Spacey has never struck me as a tough guy ... he might be a ruthless sociopath, but the softness (and pudginess) I see in him messes up the image for me.
Stamper works better as an evil guy because he's so lean (even more gaunt after his recovery). The same is true of Putin, er, Petrov.
Robin Wright reminds me of Rachel in Blade Runner ... the perfect posture, the poise, the diction, the clothes, the bleached teeth (and hair), the Stepford Wife / Ice Queen thing. Season three takes a twist on her sociopath story, not sure if it makes sense.
Again (like Bosch), this show probably appeals to late Boomers and Gen X. Not sure if the kids (Gen Y and Millennials) care for it. I can still recommend it to members of the liberal coastal elite; the show won't fly in flyover country. My selected screenshots below.
Cast: Kevin Spacey (b. 1959); Robin Wright (b. 1966); Michael Kelly (b. 1969); Mahershala Ali (b. 1974); Molly Parker (b. 1972); Elizabeth Marvel (b. 1969); Jayne Atkinson (b. 1959)
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- March 9, 2015
Important change as the TBT reverses ... I've been long the TLT (short interest rates) this way since September 2013 (!), but will now switch sides. When the ^TYX went briefly below 2.25% on 1/30/2015 (see bottom chart), that may have marked some kind of generational low ... time will tell (and I'm always happy to reverse position when prices dictate).
Long view of the long bond:
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- March 2, 2015
No changes this week..
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- February 23, 2015
XIV reverses following last week's move in VXX ... silver plunge means time to short.
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- February 16, 2015
More quick losses from positions put on in Jan. and Feb.
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- February 9, 2015
Whipsawed in three positions within one week ... has to be some kind of record.
David Shambaugh's Wishful Thinking
David Shambaugh, the academic and think tanker, posted a piece in the Wall Street Journal titled "The Coming Chinese Crackup." I didn't find his argument that "China’s system and society ... [is now] closer to a breaking point" persuasive in the least. Just for reference, Shambaugh got his BA in 1977, which means he was probably born in 1955, making him a "Middle Boomer" who will turn 60 this year. Here are his five points:
- "China’s economic elites have one foot out the door" -- not new, and not entirely true
- "greatly intensified the political repression" -- has waxed and waned for 30 years now
- "propaganda has lost its power" -- actually they're savvier on this front than ever before
- "corruption riddles party-state, military, Chinese society" -- has for "5000 years"
- "economy is stuck in a series of systemic traps" -- they're well aware of the issues
The truth is guys like Shambaugh can't stand the idea that an authoritarian, one-party state can be successful and long-lived. The Chinese are practical above all else, and survivors. His idea of political reform is anchored in liberal western ideals, not Chinese reality. What he should be concentrating on instead is how the West will become more Chinese: the rise of crony capitalism, regulatory capture, Washington-Wall St. client patron relationships, sham elections ("re-districting"), the rise of the surveillance state, etc.
The Chinese aren't going to become more like us, we're going to become more like them.