Imagine Having a National Leader Like This Gentleman

Intelligent, articulate, informed, civilized … shed a tear for what Murka has become.

J.D. Vance Should Have Been the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2024

Fighting for the white working class, anti-Wall Street, anti-global capitalist class. Two interesting old interviews:

November 2016. Peter Robinson seems smug and interrupts him constantly…

March 2018. I’ve always loved the Tiger Mom and knew she had taken J.D. under her wing at Yale.

Which Party Will Win the Electoral College in 2020?

I took a look at PredictIt’s Electoral College map (below) and put the numbers into a spreadsheet.

The election will be decided by a handful of swing states. Assuming the incumbent wins all the swing states which are tilting his way (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, etc.), he only needs to win Pennsylvania and some combination of either Arizona or Michigan or Wisconsin to be re-elected, which seems to be a pretty low bar. Of course in 2016 he won all four of those states, which was no surprise to me. This election is a harder call than the last one, but I think the incumbent has a very good chance to win.

A Collection of I Told Ya So's

Please note the time stamps:

@PlanMaestro The Donald is a protest vote (like Perot was back in the day) ... I am hopeful that he forces the Establishment's hand.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) September 15, 2015

@dscoughlin The great swing state of Ohio ... if The Donald can secure Ohio he really has a shot.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) September 18, 2015

@imagethief @niubi Garage man cave can double as survivalist hideout after The Donald gets elected (buy a diesel generator).

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) September 18, 2015

@pointsnfigures Why discount The Donald?

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) October 1, 2015

Broad realization that The Donald is going to crush HillBilly in November really goosing the gold market.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) March 4, 2016

@AriCostello Looks like the GOP would rather have Cruz lose to HillBilly than Trump beat her. Face saving? Odd how the Establishment works.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) March 9, 2016

@thinkertonthunk Of course … it’s not about Trump (or Sanders), it’s about expressing disgust with the status quo, “crony capitalism.”

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) March 13, 2016

@vshih2 That's what the national map is going to look like in the general election.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) March 16, 2016

The bad news for Bill Buckley is that the first 2,000 names in the Boston telephone directory are all Trump voters.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) April 12, 2016

The Donald only needs to win the swing states of either Ohio or Florida to win the general election: https://t.co/FDo5H99fvI

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 5, 2016

@joshchin Yes, but many also said Trump would never win the nomination … might be a lot of wishful thinking in the MSM.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 5, 2016

@StoryInTheTape I’m assuming he wins PA and NC … mainstream media not acknowledging the good possibility he wins the general election.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 5, 2016

MT @trey_menefee 44% of W Virginians who voted for Sanders plan 2 vote for Trump over HRC https://t.co/zWnXC21wyX | The Donald has good shot

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 11, 2016

@stinson It ends when The Donald wins the general election in November.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 12, 2016

@munilass Yes, the MSM is in denial about this, and every “attack” they make on The Donald only strengthens him.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 16, 2016

What tiny fraction of the people who *never* vote have to come out and vote for Trump in order for him to win? Any analysis done on this?

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 20, 2016

@ObsoleteDogma And after he's elected in November?

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 21, 2016

MT @ianbremmer For the first time, Trump ahead of Clinton in national poll. pic.twitter.com/PBC2ysAaQV | Only needs OH or FL and may win both.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 22, 2016

@MkZhao You should psychologically prepare yourself for The Donald winning the general election.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) May 23, 2016

The Donald is an independent Presidential candidate who hijacked an existing party structure — a brilliant move.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) June 3, 2016

@fishjourner They're getting more alarmed for sure.... dawning on them that 'murikans going to elect this guy.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) June 4, 2016

MT @eosnos Every time someone in DC says they’ve never met a Trump fan, I shudder https://t.co/J3fSW4oCmf | The Donald only needs FL OH 2win

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) June 24, 2016

@AlexRubalcava Another reason Trump will win.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) July 1, 2016

Great bifurcated America chart via @JoshZumbrun: pic.twitter.com/jzWOQusl0i | The Donald should be able to win in key swing states given this.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) July 2, 2016

You have to assume The Donald will win FL PA OH, then work down from there: https://t.co/WtbfyBgpFH | via @Nate_Cohn

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) July 20, 2016

Just had annual car inspection, mechanic told me he's voting for Trump. Still can't find a white, working-class guy who isn't a Trump voter.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) August 2, 2016

@3747S_14458E All down to PA OH FL and NC, the swing states, all of which The Donald will win.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) August 18, 2016

"... in all corners of PA, I’ve found that Trump’s support ... remains strong" https://t.co/8SsarxryTQ | Also true in OH, upstate NY.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) August 23, 2016

@The_Real_Fly The Donald will take OH PA FL easily, no idea where this "dead heat" is happening.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) September 17, 2016

@chandavkl He was dismissive of Trump getting the nomination! Not sure he's going to do any better with the general election....

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) September 28, 2016

@chandavkl A coin flip ... if you drive through rural OH and PA, it feels like The Donald is going to win in a landslide.

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) September 28, 2016

Mainstream media continues to preach to the choir by revealing Trump's transgressions ... they don't matter a whit to his fans (voters).

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) October 3, 2016

@BarbarianCap Yep, Brexit was the tell … when The Donald takes OH PA FL what will they say?

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) October 30, 2016

@UselessTree @ananthkrishnan My people (small sample) in VA think Trump will win that state. Driving thru rural OH PA feels like T landslide

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) November 4, 2016

@UselessTree @ananthkrishnan We'll see if Katz and Silver get it right ... drive 20 miles out of Williamstown, it's wall-to-wall Trump signs

— C. Maoxian (@maoxian) November 4, 2016

Island of Blue

Odd spot in Northern Appalachia.... 

510 Ways To Win

This tweet amused me:

If Clinton wins Florida, Trump basically has just one way to win https://t.co/ecQB4SmGHb pic.twitter.com/vvpjbXEll4

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) July 19, 2016

People (and by people, I mean the coastal elites) are fooling themselves into thinking that The Donald will not win key swing states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Not only will he win all three of them, he'll do so decisively. Use this handy-dandy tool to see how easily he'll win the general election in November.