Movies Watched -- Prevenge (2017)

Added on by C. Maoxian.

98 minute running time … low-budget horror/comedy from England … it wasn’t terrible, but it also wasn’t any good. It’s a Written by, Directed by, Starring the same person deal. You can give it a miss.

Simon Abrams gets it right when he says, “The mix of tones and sensibilities in ‘Prevenge’ is meant to be aggressively absurd. But it's a fine line between goading you into relating with a mentally unstable heroine and daring viewers to check out.“

You know, they've just like got no banter, have they?

You know, they've just like got no banter, have they?

Who Pays for Robinhood Order Flow?

Added on by C. Maoxian.

We can see from the Robinhood Securities - Held NMS Stocks and Options Order Routing Public Report (PDF) that there are five firms that pay for all of Robinhood’s order flow:

  1. Citadel — 131 South Dearborn Street, Chicago, IL 60603

  2. Virtu — 165 Broadway, New York, NY 10006

  3. G1 — 175 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 1700, Chicago, IL 60604

  4. Two Sigma — 100 Avenue of the Americas, 16th Floor, New York, NY 10013

  5. Wolverine — 175 West Jackson Boulevard, 2nd floor, Chicago, IL 60604

Notes for Chat with Traders, Episode 204

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Episode 204 ... Brian Lee (70:05)

  • Lives in California

  • Pro gamer for 10 years, "FLUFFNSTUFF" (Dota 2)

  • Dropped out of college to become pro gamer

  • Traveled a lot as a pro gamer

  • Similar to being a rock star [but did he get laid?]

  • Trading another competitive "sport"

  • Pro gamers making multimillions now, but wasn't the case in his day (made thousands then)

  • Fulfilled his dream of competing at The International (2013)

  • Paper trading will warp you, no liquidity concerns, no emotions

  • A lot of trader education is scammy

  • Shorts microcap hard-to-borrows exclusively now, using a "mean reversion" strategy

  • There's an edge to taking the other side of newbie long trades

  • Size up your risk in a systematic way

  • Started with around $30,000 (his gaming winnings)

  • Refunded a couple times to stay over PDT (Pattern Day Trader minimum $25,000)

  • Changed colors of bars in ThinkOrSwim to try to control his fomo, didn't work

  • Built systematic entry method to defeat his fomo which has worked, no details given of course

  • Took him a year to become consistent, learning the rules of the game

  • Lost 50% of his gains when pot sector was in runaway mode

  • Would revenge trade tickers and would average losers

  • End of year two he lost all his profits, blew up his account which had grown to around $100,000

  • Broker bought him in at the top when he lost it all, froze when he got margin calls

  • Pro gamers used to taking a loss and being able to re-focus

  • Fiancee told him after he blew up to get a job

  • Without a college degree, he could only drive for Uber or work at Starbucks

  • Father died later that year, left some life insurance money

  • Mom let him re-fund account to bare minimum

  • Started to take things super seriously as a result

  • Implemented max loss rule, that's the thing that truly saved him

  • Equity curve is now parabolic

  • Wires out money regularly, treats it like a real job, hasn't sized up since reaching dream size

  • Doesn't want to be a superstar

  • Focused on small caps, screenshot 1 min and 5 min charts of all runners to find patterns

  • Noted patterns and figured out where to enter, stop and target to come up with at least 3 to 1 reward to risk

  • Connected with traders on Twitter who traded similar niche, met together on Discord after hours, collaborated

  • Always pick someone slighlty better than you and someone slightly worse than you to maximize learning

  • Loves trading trash stocks with heavy dilution, companies that need capital badly

  • Companies release bogus public relation announcements, create supply demand imbalance

  • Scales into front side of moves, then adds once supply comes in

  • Plays reversion to a mean, exits there (examples of "means": VWAP, moving averages, some daily level, etc.)

  • "Haymaker" ... running price up thousands of percent, make sure shorts get bought in

  • Most people who try what he does get blown out because they revenge trade, have no max loss

  • Best supply comes not just from dilution but also from bagholders (people stuck long the stock from higher prices)

  • Find companies that are toxic by nature ... same underwriters involved in all dilutions

  • Can identify style of play by underwriter involved, different tricks employed

  • Find broken charts that are full of spikes where all the gains are instantly given back

  • Uses calculator in Excel, inputs stop and target and generates optimal entry based on risk reward

  • Doesn't want to set stops too tight or too loose [Goldilocks principle]

  • Uses a couple different indicators to trigger him into the trade

  • Very patient, he maximizes moves ... average winner is six times his average loss

  • 26% win rate on per trade basis because he cuts a lot of starters

  • He's confident to put on a trade every time because he understand his average win to average loss ratio

  • Every trade is a drop in the bucket, doesn't think about trades individually

  • Won't reveal his custom indicators, but does say he takes what the average trader looks at and uses that against them

  • Does not look at level 2 when putting on a trade, he just enters and sets stop and target

  • Normalize your trade outcome by betting a consistent amount

  • Find a goal number where you are slightly uncomfortable and use that as your R

  • Scale risk down when you're losing, scale risk up when you're winning

  • You have to feel like you deserve your gains

  • Once you're really comfortable with the amount you are risking, then you can move up a level to slightly uncomfortable

  • Will double risk on trades that he's super confident on, the A+ setup, but....

  • Most of his trades are the same bet size

  • Trades you don't take full size on, if you win, you won't feel good about it; when you lose, you're tempted to add

  • Beginner traders vary bet sizes wildly day to day so their results make no sense

  • His starter position is very small, secondary signal says take full size, tertiary signal says add to winner

  • Doesn't get emotional when small starter goes against him, he's instantly able to cut it

  • Feels he has enough experience now to be a bit more discretionary about exits (targets and stops)

  • If it's pushing higher midday, it's likely that he's wrong ... time of day is key

  • With his starter, it could be a 0.5R loss, so he can make many many attempts with 6R average win

  • Built his own way of understanding average true range for small caps

  • Figure out how much range there is, how much "meat on bone" to target, can then set stop appropriately

  • Waits patiently for price to get to target, or "close enough," never takes partial profits

  • Doesn't want "decision fatigue" of exiting and re-entering over and over

  • Doesn't carry positions overnight ... fees too high, 7x overnight locate fees, interest, plus gap risk too great

  • Hit his dream risk amount in January 2020

  • Increased his R by one every month this year

  • If your risk is too tight, you're constantly going to stop out

  • Don't force the range, take advantage of it ... you can't do that with a short time horizon

  • He doesn't have tight initial risk, he has wide initial risk, then tightens stop as price goes in his favor

  • Three things you must have:

1) max loss, a failsafe that will keep you from fighting something into oblivion

2) systematize your entry and exit so you can measure how you are doing

3) normalize your risk, very small R in the beginning, give yourself time to make all the mistakes you need to make

  • Once you are consistent, you can start to scale up; money made later will be many times your early losses [assuming you find an edge]

Blog | YouTube

Twitter: @BrianLeeTrades

Fast Food Chains Ranked, by Revenue

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Freeing this paginated list, 2019 revenue in billions … I’ve never heard of most of these places:

  1. McDonald's $40.41 2350 N Triphammer, Ithaca, NY

  2. Starbucks $21.55 (In Tar-jay) 40 Catherwood Rd, Ithaca, NY

  3. Chick-fil-A $11.00 7916 Brewerton Rd, Cicero, NY

  4. Taco Bell $11.00 222 Elmira Road, Ithaca, NY

  5. Burger King $10.30 1010 Ellis Hollow Road, Ithaca NY

  6. Subway $10.00 15 Catherwood Rd, Ithaca, NY

  7. Wendy's $9.87 326 Elmira Rd, Ithaca, NY

  8. Dunkin' $9.22 32 Peruville Rd, Lansing, NY

  9. Domino's $7.10 311 E Green St, Ithaca, NY

  10. Panera Bread $5.93 748 South Meadow St, Ithaca, NY

  11. Chipotle $5.52 740 South Meadow St, Ithaca, NY

  12. Pizza Hut $5.38 2301 N. Triphammer Rd., Ithaca, NY

  13. KFC $4.82 3890 State Route 281, Cortland, NY

  14. Sonic Drive-In $4.69 1103 Upper Front St, Chenango, NY (near Bing’ton)

  15. Arby's $3.89 328 Elmira Rd, Ithaca, NY

  16. Little Caesars $3.85 324 Elmira Rd Suite 400, Ithaca, NY

  17. Panda Express $3.80 3080 Mall Walk, Yonkers, NY

  18. Dairy Queen $3.76 7984 Brewerton Rd, Cicero, NY

  19. Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen $3.75 3062 Erie Blvd E, Syracuse NY

  20. Jack in the Box $3.51 (none in New York state)

  21. Papa John's $2.66 435 Franklin Street, Ithaca NY

  22. Whataburger $2.56 (none in New York state)

  23. Jimmy John's $2.11 122 N Aurora St, Ithaca, NY

  24. Hardee's $2.07 (none in New York state)

  25. Zaxby's $1.84 (none in New York state)

  26. Culver's $1.73 (none in New York state)

  27. Five Guys $1.66 222 Elmira Rd, Ithaca, NY

  28. Raising Cane's $1.47 (none in New York state)

  29. Wingstop $1.40 (none in New York state)

  30. Carl's Jr. $1.39 (none in New York state)

  31. Jersey Mike's $1.34 3401 Erie Blvd, East DeWitt, NY

  32. Bojangles' $1.29 (none in New York state)

  33. In-N-Out Burger $1.00 (none in New York state)

  34. Steak 'n Shake $0.93 (none in New York state)

  35. El Pollo Loco $0.89 (none in New York state)

  36. QDOBA $0.85 2335 Richmond Ave, Staten Island,NY

  37. Checkers/Rally's $0.86 1969 Elmwood Ave, Buffalo, NY

  38. Firehouse Subs $0.86 740 South Meadow Dr. Suite 1100, Ithaca, NY

  39. Del Taco $0.85 (none in New York state)

  40. Tim Hortons $0.84 451 Hamilton St, Geneva, NY

  41. Moe's $0.79 324 Elmira Road, Ithaca, NY

  42. Papa Murphy's $0.75 (none in New York state)

  43. McAlister's Deli $0.72 (none in New York state)

  44. Jason's Deli $0.71 (none in New York state)

  45. Church's Chicken $0.70 (none in New York state)

  46. Shake Shack $0.63 Woodbury Common, NY 199 Niagara Lane, Central Valley, NY

  47. Marco's Pizza $0.63 (none in New York state)

  48. Baskin-Robbins $0.63 3317 Chambers Rd, Horseheads, NY

  49. Tropical Smoothie Café $0.58 (none in New York state)

  50. Auntie Anne's $0.56 40 Catherwood Road, Ithaca, NY

Which Party Will Win the Electoral College in 2020?

Added on by C. Maoxian.

I took a look at PredictIt’s Electoral College map (below) and put the numbers into a spreadsheet.

2020-09-25_8-41-1 predict.jpg

The election will be decided by a handful of swing states. Assuming the incumbent wins all the swing states which are tilting his way (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, etc.), he only needs to win Pennsylvania and some combination of either Arizona or Michigan or Wisconsin to be re-elected, which seems to be a pretty low bar. Of course in 2016 he won all four of those states, which was no surprise to me. This election is a harder call than the last one, but I think the incumbent has a very good chance to win.

2020-09-25_8-45-37 vites.jpg

V45 Hits on September 24, 2020

Added on by C. Maoxian.

Rare day where I got lucky number eight stocks hitting on my V45 scan … all about banking sick coin, my bros.

The Simpsons S01 E03

Added on by C. Maoxian.

“Looks like there's a little leftover nuclear waste. No problem. I'll just put it where nobody'll find it for a million years. So, now you know the whole true story of nuclear energy, our no longer misunderstood friend. So, keep on smilin'.”

2020-09-23_21-14-58 s03.jpg