Stock Du Jour, Tue. Apr. 28, 2020, CREX

Creative Realities Inc (CREX) was a latecomer HTB which eventually qualified as the stock du jour, doing 218,000 trades and $259MM in volume … originally IBIO was the stock du jour doing 116,000 trades and NAT also did 262,000 trades, though neither of those was HTB and I played them at IB.

I got a lovely short entry in CREX after paying 3.73 cents per share for the borrow ($373 per 10,000) … I’ve been practicing holding all day, but couldn’t bear the profits and covered a small piece when I was up around 20% and kept my original stop … shortly afterwards, right at 3PM it exploded higher and I was stopped out for a scratch more or less, after significant slippage … this was a squeeze for the ages and I’ll have to think more about how to manage my original stop in these situations, though things happened fast here and I might not have been able to tighten it quick enough even if I had the presence of mind to do so.

Frankly I’m pleased with how well I handled it … people who get stubborn and add to “work their way out” of a bad position bust out and disappear … CREX hit a high of $5.15 after hours so you can imagine someone with my entry and modest size would be down $30,000 there, unrealized. Scary.

The tape starts right around 11AM when I first noticed CREX on the scanner. I had been busy with NAT and IBIO at IB as well as TROV at the bookie. Slow down the tape at 3PM and watch the rocket ship take off.

Stock Du Jour, Mon. Apr. 27, 2020, YTEN

Yield10 Bioscience Inc (YTEN) was the stock du jour, more specifically the hard-to-borrow (HTB) du jour, doing 140,000 trades and $241MM in volume … the bookie didn’t have borrow at first but I got some eventually at 8.73 cents per share ($873 per 10,000). They waited till right at the close to break it and I was there and caught it, but foolishly covered into the closing bell only to watch it fall to $6.68 low after hours (ugh).

AYTU also active with 185,000 trades and IB had some shares so I played that one there. INO did over 300,000 trades and I played it terribly, again with an IB borrow … had a wonderful entry at the open, but got faked out (inexplicably) and got pissed off and my re-entry was bottom tick, but thankfully they took it all the way down to $13 so it wasn’t a total disaster for me (14.55 to 13.30 ave all out).

I also got a good play on NAKD (114 to 83.9 ave all out), borrow was 4.17. Lastly I played AVDL, 12.59 to 11.78, but I screwed up my sizing and made about a third of what I should have there, borrow was 3.69. The usual day of mistakes and missed opportunities, but I’m new at this game, you know, only been trading 25 years now.

End of Empire

See what the Sports Illustrated swimsuit model looks like in ‘murka today?

“When you see circus sideshow people now, you don’t bat an eye.”

Beached whale pose

Spotify Global Top 50 Selections -- April 23, 2020

1. THE SCOTTS — THE SCOTTS, 2:45, hip hop, skipped

2. Blinding Lights — The Weeknd, 3:20, sounds sort of Brit poppy, not terrible but skipped

3. Toosie Slide — Drake, 4:07, auto-tune garbage hip hop, skipped

4. Roses - Inmanbek Remix — SAINt JHN, 2:56, club music, not terrible but skipped

5. Don’t Start Now — Dua Lipa, 3:03, club music, love the bass line and her voice, RECOMMENDED

6. death bed (coffee for your head) — Powfu, beabadoobee, 2:53, white rap, skipped

7. Dance Money — Tones and I, 3:29, skipped

8. SICKO MODE — Travis Scott, 5:12, hip hop, skipped

9. The Box — Roddy Ricch, 3:16, hip hop, skipped

10. Say So — Doja Cat, 3:57, club music, boring, skipped

11. Righteous — Juice WRLD, 4:03, white rap-ish, skipped

12. Blueberry Faygo — Lil Mosey, 2:42, hip hop, skipped

13. goosebumps — Travis Scott, 4:03, auto-tune garbage, rap, skipped

14. Break My Heart — Dua Lipa, 3:41, love her voice but the chorus doesn’t work for me, skipped

15. Supalonely — BENEE, Gus Dapperon, 3:43, white girl, skipped

16. HIGHEST IN THE ROOM — Travis Scott, 2:55, auto-tune garbage rap, skipped

17. ROCKSTAR — DaBaby, Roddy Ricch, 3:01, hip hop, skipped

18. Intentions (feat. Quavo) — Justin Bieber, Quavo, 3:32, not terrible but skipped

19. Sunday Best — Surfaces, 2:38, skipped

20. Falling — Trevor Daniel, 2:39, white boy? skipped

21. Savage — Megan Thee Stallion, 2:35, black girl foul rap, skipped

22. Yo Perreo Sola — Bad Bunny, 2:52, Spanish girl rap, skipped

23. Safaera — Bad Bunny, Jowell & Randy, Nengo Flow, 4:55, Spanish auto-tune rap, skipped

24. Tusa — Karol G, Nicki Minaj, 3:20, Spanish, nice voice, I liked this, RECOMMENDED

25. Someone You Loved — Lewis Capaldi, 3:02 Gordon Lightfoot-ish, weird to hear after all the hip hop but still skipped it

26. Boss Bitch — Doja Cat, 2:14, club music, less boring than “Say So” but still skipped

27. ROXANNE — Arizona Zervas, 2:43, auto-tune, skipped

28. Circles — Post Malone, 3:35, white boy, I didn’t hate this, oddly, RECOMMENDED

29. Physical — Dua Lipa, 3:13, not thrilled, looks like only one good track on new album, skipped

30. ily (i love you baby) — Surf Mesa, Emilee, 2:56, cover of Can't Take My Eyes Off You, skipped

31. In Your Eyes — The Weeknd, 3:57, white boy imitating 80s Brit pop?, skipped

32. WHATS POPPIN — Jack Harlow, 2:19, white boy rap, I like this, RECOMMENDED

33. Adore You — Harry Styles, 3:27, white boy, skipped

34. Live Is Good — Future, Drake, 3:57, hip hop, skipped

35. Favorito — Camilo, 3:29, Spanish, skipped

36. bad guy — Billie Eilish, 3:14, catchy, I like this, RECOMMENDED

37. Rojo — J Balvin, 2:30, Spanish, skipped

38. Memories — Maroon 5, 3:09, white boy, catchy tune, RECOMMENDED

39. Sasuke — Lil Uzi Vert, 4:11, hip hop, skipped

40. I’m Ready (with Demi Lovato) — Sam Smith, Demi Lovato, 3:20, gay white boy love song, skipped

41. Senorita — Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello, 3:10, very catchy, probably a billion streamer, RECOMMENDED

42. Before You Go — Lewis Capaldi, 3:35, Gordon Lightfootish again, skipped

43. STARGAZING — Travis Scott, 4:30, this guy again?!?, auto-tune, skipped

44. If the World Was Ending - feat. Julia Michaels — JP Saxe, Julia Michaels, 3:28, skipped

45. BUTTERFLY EFFECT — Travis Scott, 3:10, not again, auto-tune, hip hop, skipped

46. everything I wanted — Billie Eilish, 4:05, she has unique schtick but not sure I’d want to listen for too long, not terrible but skipped

47. Skechers —DripReport, 1:46, South Asian vibe, sounds like a gag song, might be funny but skipped for now

48. Godzilla — Eminem, Juice WRLD, 3:30, white boy rap, how old is Eminem now? still doing same schtick, it’s not terrible but skipped

49. Tattoo — Rauw Alejandro, Spanish, skipped

50. Ride It — Regard, 2:37, club music, not terrible but skipped for now

Movies Watched -- The Heiress (1949)

115 minute running time … I liked this one a lot, which is unusual since it’s a period piece, and I don’t usually have much patience for those. The story is good, well written, and the acting is good as well. It’s a little overly long, but I don’t see how I could cut any of it out without ruining it. This is a green-go, Top 500 movie for sure. Thanks to John Farr for recommending it.

Yes, I can be very cruel. I have been taught by masters.

Stock Du Jour, Fri. Apr. 24, 2020, MESO

Mesoblast limited (MESO) was the HTB (hard-to-borrow) du jour, doing 118,000 trades and $458MM in volume … I paid between 4.33 and 29.2 (!) per share for the borrow (a weighted average of nearly 19 cents or $1,900 per 10,000 shares) … I did something really stupid and shorted it around 7:30 AM at an “experimental” entry with too big a position and it ran to $20.57 at the open, nearly $10 above my initial entry … so I had dug myself another “unrealized” hole again — a stupid, unforced error. I wasn’t feeling tilted at all though, thank god, and was able to minimize the damage by end of day, but you’ll see in the summary that I still took a decent loss. Fortunately I had some other profitable trades to make it sort of a breakeven day, NOT including borrow fees.

MDGS was the other obvious HTB du jour (116,000 trades, $58.4MM dollar volume) and I wanted to play it, but the bookie had no shares when I needed them … needless to say that it broke perfectly and faded all day, which would have been a huge win, but I wasn’t in it. See how it works in the real world?

MBOT was a latecomer and IB did have some shares, but it “reclaimed,” “flagged,” and ran in the afternoon, jamming me out for a 1R loss. That wasn’t an unforced error like MESO, so I don’t mind taking that loss. Of course I shoulda reversed and gotten long, but no, I’m incapable of doing that.

I always hate ending the week on a loss, or even breakeven, but that’s the way it works in reality … I’m not #twading here.

Movies Watched -- Shoot to Kill (1988)

109 minute running time but I went to fast forward after 15 minutes … low budget, bad music, dumb story, bad acting, horrible late 80s vibe, just crap … a Twitterer from Germany recommended this because he said he imagined that’s what it looks like where I live, but I don’t live in British Columbia. Sidney Poitier must have been really hard up for money to have agreed to do this. Black city slicker in the wilds still played for laughs in 1988? Terrible.

I ain't taking no tenderfoot trails.

Stock Du Jour, Thu. Apr. 23, 2020, CPAH

CounterPath Corp (CPAH) was the HTB (hard-to-borrow) du jour, doing 61,800 trades and $53.6MM in volume. The borrow was somewhat erratic, but I was eventually able to borrow what I wanted at 5.33 cents per share ($533 per 10,000). It gave me a good spot and this was an “all day fader” with near constant selling as you’ll see in the video below.

Whiting Petroleum Corp (WLL) is also hard-to-borrow now (in the old days, IB had unlimited shares of this one) and the borrow cost was 1.99 cents per share, about as cheap as it gets. It did 423,000 trades and I did trade it with mixed results (this means I lost money, but not much, lol).

Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (INO) is easy-to-borrow (ETB) and is a major pain in the ass as a result. I dug myself an enormous hole in the morning as I got it repeatedly wrong, shorting the low tick and covering the top tick, over and over (look at the wicks above 13.35, that’s ALL me buying there). Fortunately I didn’t go completely on tilt, and when it finally broke I was able to catch it with enough size to undo all the morning mess. When something is coiling and you’re just out of sync with it, losses can add up really fast.

There’s a reason you’re only as good as your last trade … you can easily go out of control with a single trade and lose everything and then some: wife and kids, pickup truck, dog, Zippo collection, you name it.

Stock Du Jour, Wed. Apr. 22, 2020, SAEX

SAExploration Holdings Inc (SAEX) was the stock du jour, doing 88,200 trades and $58MM in volume … it was very hard to borrow and I only got a partial fill at the bargain (!) price of 15.05 cents per share. I got a good fill on entry though and was a pretty good boy about not covering anything prematurely, but I still did of course, though very litte… still working on solving this problem.

The same difficulty and expense of borrowing was true of the other HTB du jour, PECK, which did 41,500 trades ($52.9MM in volume) … I paid 11.88 cents per share for that one and ended up getting jammed out shortly after it ran above $6 at end of day (5.748 in, 5.914 out + fairly massive borrow expense, argh) … of course it went to $5.25 after hours and I would have made decent money there, but I was feeling a bit tilted, always happens after a cynical stop run. Shoulda re-entered, story of my life. Trading is simple, but it ain’t easy, as any service seller will tell you.

Taking a Closer Look

Kris Velma, whom I wrote about earlier, continues to reveal a lot about his day trades on Twitter. I was interested in this play in BRQS … let’s take a closer look. He shorted 6,546 shares at a $4.984 average (position size: $32,625.26) and covered 6,546 shares at a $4.495 average, which gives a gross gain of $3,201.87. I don’t know what his borrow fees were exactly, but let’s say they were $200-$300.

As you can see from the chart below, the maximum unrealized loss he sat through was $18,760.84, so he was risking at least five times his eventual reward. Is this a trading style you want to emulate? I’m not sure what his strategy is for stopping out of positions, but “maximum adverse excursion” is one stat you should pay attention to.

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