Cross currents as I take a net loss and now short the Q's and get long small caps ... recipe for losing money no doubt, but I follow the model without any independent thought.
Pitbull Channel
First 50 tracks generated by the Pandora algo:
- Pitbull -- Feel This Moment
- Enur -- Calabria 2008
- David Guetta -- Crank It Up
- Enrique Iglesias -- I Like It
- Pitbull -- Hey Baby (Drop It To The Floor)
- Flo Rida -- Whistle
- Nina Sky -- Move Ya Body
- Kat Deluna -- Whine Up
- Mark Ronson -- Uptown Funk (feat. Bruno Mars)
- Pitbull -- Bon, Bon
- Don Omar & Lucenzo -- Danza Kuduro
- DJ Snake & Lil Jon -- Turn Down For What
- Enrique Iglesias -- Bailanda (English Version)
- Pitbull -- Give Me Everything
- Sean Paul -- Temperature
- Jennifer Lopez -- Dance Again
- Usher -- Scream
- Robin Thicke -- Blurred Lines
- will.i.am -- Scream & Shout
- Black Eyed Peas -- The Time (Dirty Bit)
- Flo Rida -- Low
- Havana Brown -- We Run The Night
- Jason DeRulo -- Talk Dirty
- Usher -- DJ Got Us Fallin' In Love
- Far East Movement -- Like A G6
- Prince Royce -- Back It Up (feat. Pitbull)
- Flo Rida -- Wild Ones
- Sean Paul -- (When You Gonna) Give It Up To Me
- David Guetta -- Sexy Chick
- Usher -- More
- LMFAO -- Party Rock Anthem
- Flo Rida -- Right Round
- Enrique Iglesias -- Bailando (Spansih version)
- Enur -- Calabria 2007 (MIMS Remix)
- Jennifer Lopez -- Live It Up
- David Guetta -- Titanium
- Usher -- Yeah!
- Sean Paul -- We Be Burnin'
- Enrique Iglesias -- Tonight (I'm Fornicating With You) [SUBTLE!]
- LMFAO -- Sexy And I Know It
- Macklemore & Ryan Lewis -- Thrift Shop
- Sean Paul -- Get Busy
- Pitbull -- I Know You Want Me (Calle Ocho)
- David Guetta -- Where Them Girls At
- Jeremih -- Tonight Belongs to U! (feat. Flo Rida)
- Rihanna -- We Found Love
- Pitbull -- Shake Senora
- Nelly -- Just A Dream
- Jeremih -- Down On Me
- Ying Yang Twins -- Shake
TrueCar Transaction Revenue
From the latest 10-K:
"During 2014, we generated revenues of $206.6 million and recorded a net loss of $48.4 million. Of the $206.6 million in revenues, 92% consisted of transaction revenues with the remaining 8% derived primarily from the sale of data and consulting services to the automotive and financial services industries.
Autodata estimates that in 2014, OEMs spent $46 billion in incentives to induce consumers to purchase their vehicles. This is an increase of nearly 15% over 2013. Incentive spending now represents approximately 9% of industry transaction revenues.
Revenues consist of fees paid by dealers participating in the Company’s dealer network with which the Company has an agreement (“TrueCar Certified Dealers” or “Dealers”). TrueCar Certified Dealers pay the Company fees either on a per-vehicle basis for sales to Auto Buying Program users or in the form of a subscription arrangement.
The Company recognizes revenue for fee arrangements based on a per-vehicle basis when the vehicle sale has occurred between the Auto Buying Program user and the Dealer. Under the contractual terms and conditions of arrangements with its network of participating TrueCar Certified Dealers, the dealer is required to pay the Company upon the sale of a vehicle to an Auto Buying Program user that has been provided to the dealer by the Company. Recognition of revenue from the sale is not contingent upon verification or acceptance of the transaction by the dealer.
Upon a user deciding to proceed with the user’s vehicle purchase through the Company, the user provides his or her name, address, e-mail, and a phone number during the process of obtaining a Guaranteed Savings Certificate, which gives the Company the identity and source of a TrueCar introduction provided to a specific dealer prior to an actual sale occurring. After a sale occurs, the Company receives information regarding the sale, including the identity of the purchaser, via the Dealer Management System used by the dealer that made the sale. The Company also receives information regarding vehicle sales from a variety of data sources, including third party car sales aggregators, car dealer networks, and other publicly available sources (collectively, “sales data”) and uses this sales data to further verify that a sale has occurred between an Auto Buying Program user and a TrueCar Certified Dealer, as well as a means to invoice the Dealer shortly after the completion of the sales transaction. Actual vehicle sales data is reported on a daily basis shortly following the date of sale.
The Company also recognizes revenue from dealers under subscription agreements. Subscription fee arrangements are short-term in nature with terms ranging from one to three months and are cancellable by the dealer or the Company at any time.
Subscription arrangements fall into three types: flat rate subscriptions, subscriptions subject to downward adjustment based on a minimum number of vehicle sales (“guaranteed sales”), and subscriptions subject to downward adjustment based on a minimum number of introductions (“guaranteed introductions”).
Under flat rate subscription arrangements, fees are charged at a monthly flat rate regardless of the number of sales made to users of the Company’s platform by the dealer. For flat rate subscription arrangements, the Company recognizes the fees as revenue over the subscription period on a straight line basis which corresponds to the period that the Company is providing the dealer access to the Auto Buying Program.
Under guaranteed sales subscription arrangements, fees are charged based on the number of guaranteed sales multiplied by a fixed amount per vehicle. To the extent that the actual number of vehicles sold by the dealers to users of the Company’s platform is less than the number of guaranteed sales, the Company provides a credit to the dealer. To the extent that the actual number of vehicles sold exceeds the number of guaranteed sales, the Company is not entitled to any additional fees.
Under guaranteed introductions subscription arrangements, fees are charged based on a periodically-updated formula that considers, among other things, the introductions anticipated to be provided to the dealer. To the extent that the number of actual introductions is less than the number of guaranteed introductions, the Company provides a credit to the dealer. To the extent that the actual number of introductions provided exceeds the number guaranteed, the Company is not entitled to any additional fees.
For guaranteed sales and guaranteed introductions subscription arrangements, the Company recognizes revenue based on the lesser of (i) the actual number of sales generated or introductions delivered through the Auto Buying Program during the subscription period multiplied by the contracted price-per-sale/introduction or (ii) the straight-line of the subscription fee over the period over which the services are delivered."
Would like to see a revenue breakdown on the per-vehicle auto buying program versus subscriptions, and a further revenue breakdown among the three types of subscriptions.
Costolo Quits, Rasputin Returns
I've been looking for Twitter to get under $35 for awhile now ... shorting into the Costolo Quits news would have been a good play (he says with the benefit of hindsight).
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- June 8, 2015
Taking yet another loss in the gold ... should post chart of all my wrong moves in this since it topped back in 2011.
Beijing Restaurants -- Ippudo
Ippudo is a chain noodle restaurant out of Japan, I guess. I think there are two branches in Beijing, one in the Kerry Center and one in Oriental Plaza, I visited the latter. There are lots of chain noodle restaurants around (Mian Ai Mian, Ajisen, Kang Shifu, etc.) but Ippudo is a little more upscale than those.
Masters of redundancy
They pull out your chair for you and give you a glass of water immediately. I went a little after the end of the lunch hour, so it was fairly empty and service was quick and friendly. Seats feel a bit low to me but I'm larger than the average Japanese. I got the "Special Sapporo Miso" (RMB58, US$9.35), a small serving of extra noodles (Kae-dama) (RMB3, US$0.48), a small mug of Asahi draft beer (RMB30, US$4.84), and caramel pudding for dessert (RMB16, US$2.58) (a bit of sweetie at the end of every meal is the law).
Chicken broth was garlicky (which I liked), but way way too salty. Could be a plot to make people order more mugs of beer (I resisted). Noodles were al dente, the way they should be. Caramel pudding was cold and came in a cute little jar that was tough to clean out (a barbarian might employ the digit usually reserved for nose picking to do this). I could hear an exhaust fan somewhere and they had some frantic jazzish music going, maybe to encourage diners not to linger.
Paying nine bucks for a bowl of chain store ramen means you're a sucker. But it's well lit and appears to be clean and gives you that homogenized, globalized, mall-based corporate blah restaurant feel that induces the anomie (am I in Santa Monica or Beijing?) which we all love. And it was better than the other places I mentioned above; of course it should be for the price bump.
You pay on the way out. No service charge, they take credit cards and were quick with shousi fapiao. Grand total, RMB107 (US$17.25).
Special Sapporo Miso -- two types of pork, bamboo shoots, soft boiled egg half, seaweed
48 cents for 84 grams of extra noodles -- good idea for when you run out of noodles but still have broth
cold pudding, cute tiny portion
Movies Watched -- Ex Machina
Saw this one awhile back, foggy memory ... Llewyn Davis grew a giant beard and shaved his head and plays a Zuckerbergian character ("Bluebook" founder, not to be confused with Facebook) who is building stunning cyber ladies in the wilds of Norway ... for some very good reason he has given his robot ladies great tits and asses, except for the main lovely, played by hapa beauty Sonoya Mizuno who is flat chested and can't dance (apparently she's a ballerina in real life but she can't tear up a dance floor like little Llewyn Davis). Programmer genius hard liquor drinker weight lifter (he's complicated, see?) ... wire rim glasses give him solid geek cred.
There's some other nerdy white kid involved, doesn't wear glasses but he's able to reprogram sophisticated home security systems on the fly. "Did you profile my porn searches?" Can AI achieve consciousness blah blah blah, damn boyz, see-through Ava has a perfectly shaped chest and lookit dat ass! Fly away young Ava, fly away. A solid entry for the slick but dumb file.
Beautiful, but wouldn't last ten seconds on Soul Train
Ernestine Anderson Channel
First 50 tracks generated by Pandora's algo:
- Ernestine Anderson -- As Long As I Live
- Barbara Morrison -- I'm Just A Lucky So And So
- Ella Fitzgerald -- Bewitched
- Nancy Wilson -- Someone To Watch Over Me
- Ernestine Anderson -- Just One More Chance
- Julie London -- Ev'ry Time We Say Goodbye
- Sarah Vaughan -- Misty [her version is best of all]
- Nancy Wilson -- As Time Goes By
- Ella Fitzgerald -- I Ain't Got Nothin' But The Blues
- Anita O'Day -- We'll Be Together Again
- Ernestine Anderson -- Poor Butterfly [love her voice and style]
- Charlie Haden -- Ill Wind [sounds like Norah Jones? Haden on saxophone]
- Nancy Wilson -- On Green Dolphin Street
- Sarah Vaughan -- Honeysuckle Rose (Live)
- Ernestine Anderson -- Mad About The Boy
- Heather Rigdon -- Young And Naive [another young blonde I've never heard of]
- Ella Fitzgerald -- They Can't Take That Away From Me
- Blossom Dearie -- Manhattan [love this version, tempo is key]
- Ernestine Anderson -- Day Dream
- Lorez Alexandria -- It Might As Well Be Spring [never heard of her, but solid]
- Barbara Morrison -- Save Your Love For Me [like her]
- Joe Sample & Lalah Hathaway -- For All We Know [not thrilled, heavy orchestration]
- Sarah Vaughan -- I Didn't Know What Time It It Was
- Randy Crawford & Joe Sample -- Every Day I Have The Blues
- Ernestine Anderson -- Old Folks
- Ernestine Anderson -- Wrap Your Troubles In Dreams
- Ella Fitzgerald -- Isn't It A Pity
- Billie Holiday -- Come Rain Or Come Shine
- Maxine Sullivan -- I Didn't Know About You
- Shirley Horn -- Foolin' Myself
- Ernestine Anderson -- Never Make Your Move Too Soon
- Nancy Wilson -- When Sunny Gets Blue
- Sarah Vaughan -- Say It Isn't So
- Sherry Petta -- Wouldn't It Be Lovely
- Laura Fygi -- It's Crazy
- Michelle Zangara -- Under A Blanket Of Blue
- Louis Armstrong & Oscar Peterson -- I Was Doing All Right
- Kevin Mahogany -- You Better Know It
- Ernestine Anderson -- Ill Wind
- Count Basie -- Lonesome Blues (Live)
- Sarah Vaughan -- That Old Black Magic
- Rebecca Kilgore -- Tulip Or Turnip
- Carmen McRae -- I'm Glad There Is You
- Ella Fitzgerald -- Get Out Of Town
- Ernestine Anderson -- Heat Wave
- Sarah Gazarek -- Give Me That Smile (Live)
- Champian Fulton -- I Can't Face The Music
- Tommy Flanagan Trio -- Medley: Some Other Spring / Easy Living
- Jimmy Scott -- The Talk Of The Town
- Veronica Nunn -- Where Or When
Southwest Airlines Pop, 1 Minute View
All the airlines (AAL, DAL, etc.) popped at the same time Monday afternoon ... assume scanner would have chirped in time ... great risk reward into the close assuming you were a fast boy and got in within that minute ... look at the tick chart to see realistic entry and stop placement, can't see this on the one minute. Seat capacity quote must have appeared on Bloomberg terminal first; there's a reason people pay $1,800 a month for it. $9.99 data feed guys the sucker fish who just latch on.
“LUV CEO Kelly said, ‘We don’t want to grow 8%, we’re not going to grow 8% and we can easily trim the schedule to stick to 7%.’”
StockTwits stream at the time ... no one with access to a Bloomberg terminal, it appears? Umm, holy cow, huh, whoa, what happened?
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- June 1, 2015
Several reversals this week, the most notable of which is China, a long-held long. Will my exit prove brilliant in hindsight or just another shakeout, time will tell.