A Few Random Notes from Our Recent Trip to America

We flew in first-class, business-class, and steerage-class on our various flights to and around and back from the US. Actually Baby T and his mother never flew in steerage class, but I did because of "liberal guilt" and a desire to avoid other fat, balding white guys. There is no difference in the service you receive among the classes -- the only difference is the amount of space you get. The stewardesses are almost all hard-asses -- the older they are, the more rigid. Of course we were flying United everywhere, and employee morale there is predictably dismal.

I was hit by a wave of anomie ("a state of being characterized by disorientation, anxiety and isolation") while in the Beijing airport. It's a weird sensation where you don't know quite where you are or what you're doing -- I bet a lot of people feel it in international airports.

At the Hyatt in San Francisco I noticed a sign by the fridge that said there would be a $20 charge if the contents were "disturbed," i.e. you take out some beer cans to chill bottles of breast-milk. Crazy.

We rented a Ford Freestyle and later a Ford Escape. They were both OK to drive, but guzzled a lot of gas. I experienced a bit of road rage on both coasts -- granted, I was at fault in both instances. I don't drive much these days and I'm also a firm believer in the "law of prevailing mass," but folks seemed more forgiving on the road when gas was $0.99 a gallon.

While in Sonoma County I learned that they have such an over-supply of grapes now that many farmers are turning their crops into fuel, which is nutty considering the quality of the grapes. I also looked into the real estate market a little bit while there -- a tract house I looked at in Santa Rosa was selling for $600K; I asked what it last sold for: $365K only three years ago.

The bums on the west coast are rarely aggressive, in the midwest they're occasionally aggressive, and on the east coast they're frequently aggressive.

I learned while reading this year's issue of the Forbes 400 that both Bill Gross and Ken Fisher are billionaires, which stunned me.

If you're a true hotel snob, you only stay at places where they give you a real key, not a key card.

I caught a couple of episodes of Jim Cramer's Mad Money finally. I was underwhelmed and even felt a little bit embarrassed for him. It is not a show I'd go out of my way to watch.

I also watched some episodes of the World Series of Poker (loved those Milwaukee's Best ads!), and realized that the only thing more pathetic than entering a poker tournament with 5,619 entrants is watching said tournament on TV.

Market Sentiment Remarkably Complacent - Stand Aside

When the VIX spikes up as it has the last few weeks, I normally get excited about putting some money to work. But I like to see my proprietary sentiment index confirm the VIX, and this month it remains remarkably low (I like to see it get above 2.0). I'm not putting a dime into this market yet. Folks appear to be in la-la land (read the "Big Money Poll" in last week's Barron's to get a good grasp of the level of contented self-satisfaction), and I suggest you stand aside until the sentiment gets truly bearish -- be patient, keep building up your cash.

Energy SPDR (XLE), Weekly Chart