MaoXian.com -- Archive > October 27, 2005

Catching Up on Interesting Articles and Other Miscellany

Are You Weird Enough to See Profit in Katrina?, by Michael Lewis. (via Controlled Greed)

"Most people aren't contrarians, in their lives or their investment decisions. They have no gift for leaning against prevailing sentiment.... The speculator not only understands this, he exploits it; other people's emotions are his raw material. He isn't self- conscious about his reaction to the suffering of others. If he has to think, consciously, 'Everyone is frightened, but as I'm supposed to be one of those contrarians, I'll now be brave,' he'll never make his move. No, the mere sight of a herd stampeding in one direction causes him to leap in the other. The consensus that New Orleans is a place to get out of inspires in him a genuine desire to get into it."

Yes, I am weird enough.

Energy, health care, technology, and other sure things, by John J. Brennan.

"A dollar invested in the natural resources sector at the end of 1980 was worth 70 cents in 1983 ... By the end of 1994, the annualized return of health/biotechnology funds had tumbled to -0.4%, 7 percentage points per year below the market return over the same period. Investors in health care funds raced for the exits ... A dollar invested in the tech sector at the bubble's peak was worth barely 50 cents three years later."

Brennan inevitably sings the praises of diversification, but what I take away from his article is: "you gotta buy 'em when they ain't."

Google unfortunately has started reporting pro forma earnings, but their Chief Accountant (hurray for an honest job title!) writes a post explaining GAAP versus non-GAAP EPS, with typical Google cute-siness: "Warning: Financial reporting minutiae below. Proceed with caution."

Bloomberg Lives by Statistics and Gives Aides a Free Hand, by Jim Rutenberg.

"[Bloomberg] reshaped the way the mayor's office runs New York, applying a results-based approach to almost every area of city government, and largely appointing his commissioners based on expertise and giving them nearly free rein to determine policy regardless of political consequences."

"... by paying for campaigns with his own money, he can operate without the usual pressures that afflict politicians...."

"The mayor-elect said he would create a huge workspace that would be just like the open-air trading room in which he worked at Salomon Brothers and later recreated at his private company, Bloomberg L.P. He would put his desk in the middle of the room and seat his top deputies and staff members around him, he said. Dozens of other aides would sit at cubicles placed side by side, ensuring the access of lower-ranking managers to the mayor's inner circle and bringing with it more accountability."

"Mr. Bloomberg exercises control over the city much like Mel Karmazin, the former Viacom chief, famously did at his company: by closely monitoring the numbers produced by a team of star department heads who are free to run their agencies as they see fit so long as they meet strict production targets. It is a strategy grounded in his experience in the business world."

"Data analysis is religion for Mr. Bloomberg, and numbers are the lifeblood of his administration. They drive policy rather than just track progress."

Despite all this, Sharon Stone still won't sleep with him.

'Mao': The Real Mao, by Nick Kristof.

"Based on a decade of meticulous interviews and archival research, [Jung Chang's] magnificent biography methodically demolishes every pillar of Mao's claim to sympathy or legitimacy."

"Mao comes across as such a villain that he never really becomes three-dimensional. As readers, we recoil from him but don't really understand him. He is presented as such a bumbling psychopath that it's hard to comprehend how he bested all his rivals to lead China and emerge as one of the most worshipped figures of the last century."

The book is 814 pages long so I'll probably give it a miss. Yes, I'm both physically and intellectually lazy.

China Builds Its Dreams, and Some Fear a Bubble, by David Barboza.

"Prices are soaring. Luxury apartments in Shanghai and Beijing... now sell for prices comparable to some high-end properties in New York. Rising prices have created a circus-like atmosphere in parts of China. Real estate fairs are mobbed, land speculation is rampant ... prices have risen so fast over the last few years and the pace of building has been so furious here and in other large cities that the government and some leading economists have been warning about a huge property bubble in China."

"China's housing rush is being fueled by mortgage rates around 5 percent and huge inflows of foreign capital. But the boom is also driven by landmark government housing reforms from the 1990's that for the first time since the Communist revolution of the late 1940's allowed Chinese to acquire their own homes rather than live in government housing."

The boom is also driven by the lack of investment alternatives... and yes, the real estate market here is still on fire as far as I can tell. We take delivery of our new apartment at the end of this month.

Classes in Chinese Grow as the Language Rides a Wave of Popularity, by Gretchen Ruethling.

"'Chinese is strategic in a way that a lot of other languages aren't,' because of China's growth as an economic and military force, Mr. McGinnis said. 'Whatever tensions lie between us, there is a historical longstanding mutual fascination with each other,' he said. 'Planning to be ready to engage with them rather than only thinking of them in terms of a challenge or a competitor is the smart thing to do.'"

"The Foreign Service Institute, which trains American diplomats, ranks Chinese as one of the four most time-intensive languages to learn. An average English speaker takes 1,320 hours to become proficient in Chinese, compared with 480 hours in French, Spanish or Italian, the institute says."

I'm more than proficient in Chinese, but I think it took me slightly longer than 1,320 hours. (God knows how they come up with a number like that.) A quick aside: on the plane from Beijing to San Francisco there was a guy from Google sitting near us. He was a tall, patrician-looking white guy who spoke very fast and completely tone-less Chinese (Chinese is a tonal language). I cringed listening to him talk with his Chinese seatmate because the importance of respecting tones was hammered into me in every one of my classes.

At Newspapers, Some Clipping, by Katharine Seelye.

"Advertisers like the Ford Motor Company are already seeing how [broadband adoption] affects buying patterns. Ford says that 80 percent of its customers now shop online, doing everything from their initial research to setting up test drives and getting quotes from dealers. So the company has decided to move 30 percent of its estimated ad budget of $1 billion a year to nontraditional media, with 15 percent going to online."

NYT closed at $27.25 yesterday, what more do you need to know?

Dan Gross suggests that instead of shrinking the page size from 15 inches to 12, the best way the Wall Street Journal can save on newsprint costs is to eliminate its editorial page entirely. Because of posts like this, Gross makes my A-List of bloggers.

Fellow cheapskates mark your calendars: The Wall Street Journal Online will be free from November 7th till November 12th. (via PaidContent)

Alfred Hitchcock: The Masterpiece Collection, a set of 14 DVDs is out. John Powers talks about Hitchcock.

Posted on October 27, 2005 at 5:30, GMT


	Thursday, October 27 Catching Up on Interesting Articles and Other Miscellany Are You Weird Enough to See Profit in Katrina?, by Michael Lewis. (via Controlled Greed) "Most people aren't contrarians, in their lives or their investment decisions. They have no gift for leaning against prevailing sentiment.... The speculator not only understands this, he exploits it; other people's emotions are his raw material. He isn't self- conscious about his reaction to the suffering of others. If he has to think, consciously, 'Everyone is frightened, but as I'm supposed to be one of those contrarians, I'll now be brave,' he'll never make his move. No, the mere sight of a herd stampeding in one direction causes him to leap in the other. The consensus that New Orleans is a place to get out of inspires in him a genuine desire to get into it." Yes, I am weird enough. Energy, health care, technology, and other sure things, by John J. Brennan. "A dollar invested in the natural resources sector at the end of 1980 was worth 70 cents in 1983 ... By the end of 1994, the annualized return of health/biotechnology funds had tumbled to -0.4%, 7 percentage points per year below the market return over the same period. Investors in health care funds raced for the exits ... A dollar invested in the tech sector at the bubble's peak was worth barely 50 cents three years later." Brennan inevitably sings the praises of diversification, but what I take away from his article is: "you gotta buy 'em when they ain't." Google unfortunately has started reporting pro forma earnings, but their Chief Accountant (hurray for an honest job title!) writes a post explaining GAAP versus non-GAAP EPS, with typical Google cute-siness: "Warning: Financial reporting minutiae below. Proceed with caution." Bloomberg Lives by Statistics and Gives Aides a Free Hand, by Jim Rutenberg. "[Bloomberg] reshaped the way the mayor's office runs New York, applying a results-based approach to almost every area of city government, and largely appointing his commissioners based on expertise and giving them nearly free rein to determine policy regardless of political consequences." "... by paying for campaigns with his own money, he can operate without the usual pressures that afflict politicians...." "The mayor-elect said he would create a huge workspace that would be just like the open-air trading room in which he worked at Salomon Brothers and later recreated at his private company, Bloomberg L.P. He would put his desk in the middle of the room and seat his top deputies and staff members around him, he said. Dozens of other aides would sit at cubicles placed side by side, ensuring the access of lower-ranking managers to the mayor's inner circle and bringing with it more accountability." "Mr. Bloomberg exercises control over the city much like Mel Karmazin, the former Viacom chief, famously did at his company: by closely monitoring the numbers produced by a team of star department heads who are free to run their agencies as they see fit so long as they meet strict production targets. It is a strategy grounded in his experience in the business world." "Data analysis is religion for Mr. Bloomberg, and numbers are the lifeblood of his administration. They drive policy rather than just track progress." Despite all this, Sharon Stone still won't sleep with him. 'Mao': The Real Mao, by Nick Kristof. "Based on a decade of meticulous interviews and archival research, [Jung Chang's] magnificent biography methodically demolishes every pillar of Mao's claim to sympathy or legitimacy." "Mao comes across as such a villain that he never really becomes three-dimensional. As readers, we recoil from him but don't really understand him. He is presented as such a bumbling psychopath that it's hard to comprehend how he bested all his rivals to lead China and emerge as one of the most worshipped figures of the last century." The book is 814 pages long so I'll probably give it a miss. Yes, I'm both physically and intellectually lazy. China Builds Its Dreams, and Some Fear a Bubble, by David Barboza. "Prices are soaring. Luxury apartments in Shanghai and Beijing... now sell for prices comparable to some high-end properties in New York. Rising prices have created a circus-like atmosphere in parts of China. Real estate fairs are mobbed, land speculation is rampant ... prices have risen so fast over the last few years and the pace of building has been so furious here and in other large cities that the government and some leading economists have been warning about a huge property bubble in China." "China's housing rush is being fueled by mortgage rates around 5 percent and huge inflows of foreign capital. But the boom is also driven by landmark government housing reforms from the 1990's that for the first time since the Communist revolution of the late 1940's allowed Chinese to acquire their own homes rather than live in government housing." The boom is also driven by the lack of investment alternatives... and yes, the real estate market here is still on fire as far as I can tell. We take delivery of our new apartment at the end of this month. Classes in Chinese Grow as the Language Rides a Wave of Popularity, by Gretchen Ruethling. "'Chinese is strategic in a way that a lot of other languages aren't,' because of China's growth as an economic and military force, Mr. McGinnis said. 'Whatever tensions lie between us, there is a historical longstanding mutual fascination with each other,' he said. 'Planning to be ready to engage with them rather than only thinking of them in terms of a challenge or a competitor is the smart thing to do.'" "The Foreign Service Institute, which trains American diplomats, ranks Chinese as one of the four most time-intensive languages to learn. An average English speaker takes 1,320 hours to become proficient in Chinese, compared with 480 hours in French, Spanish or Italian, the institute says." I'm more than proficient in Chinese, but I think it took me slightly longer than 1,320 hours. (God knows how they come up with a number like that.) A quick aside: on the plane from Beijing to San Francisco there was a guy from Google sitting near us. He was a tall, patrician-looking white guy who spoke very fast and completely tone-less Chinese (Chinese is a tonal language). I cringed listening to him talk with his Chinese seatmate because the importance of respecting tones was hammered into me in every one of my classes. At Newspapers, Some Clipping, by Katharine Seelye. "Advertisers like the Ford Motor Company are already seeing how [broadband adoption] affects buying patterns. Ford says that 80 percent of its customers now shop online, doing everything from their initial research to setting up test drives and getting quotes from dealers. So the company has decided to move 30 percent of its estimated ad budget of $1 billion a year to nontraditional media, with 15 percent going to online." NYT closed at $27.25 yesterday, what more do you need to know? Dan Gross suggests that instead of shrinking the page size from 15 inches to 12, the best way the Wall Street Journal can save on newsprint costs is to eliminate its editorial page entirely. Because of posts like this, Gross makes my A-List of bloggers. Fellow cheapskates mark your calendars: The Wall Street Journal Online will be free from November 7th till November 12th. (via PaidContent) Alfred Hitchcock: The Masterpiece Collection, a set of 14 DVDs is out. John Powers talks about Hitchcock. Posted on October 27, 2005 at 5:30, GMT Generex Biotech GNBT popped up the day before this press release: Generex Biotechnology to Accelerate Development of Vaccine for Pandemic Avian Influenza, so I don't know what is going on. All I know is that this stock is showing up on both the Unusual Suspects and the Notable New Highs lists, so it deserves to be put on a Watch List. Combine a stock at a drill-bit price with a hot topic (bird flu), and you'll get a possible candidate for Dummies (yesterday's entry was above the 10:45 bar at $1.15, protective stop at $1.08). Always watch your unusual volume scanner for stuff at or near new highs! GNBT, Monthly Chart Posted on October 27, 2005 at 5:00, GMT Previous Entry >>> Arch Coal		Home Archive © 2000 - 2005 Chairman MaoXian

Catching Up on Interesting Articles and Other Miscellany

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