Monday, June 20
Chat Transcript for Sunday, June 19, 2005
Due to Trader Mike's kind plug, we came very close to hitting the 200 chatter mark ;-) Here's the complete transcript:
Posted on June 20, 2005 at 8:00, GMT
| CMaoxian | hi oneway |
| onewaystox | howdy |
| CMaoxian | you're the early bird |
| CMaoxian | hi thug |
| CMaoxian | hi joe dayve and yinwu |
| CMaoxian | are you guys coming via tradermike? |
| dayve | hello |
| RedEyes | Hi folks |
| dayve | i believe so |
| CMaoxian | hi red |
| RedEyes | Hi CM |
| 6thworld | good evening all |
| 6thworld | 6 ppl here, only 194 to go |
| nvdog | we are cookin 6th! |
| RedEyes | Happy Fathers Day to all |
| CMaoxian | i'll wait till about 8:05, make sure all 200 get here |
| YinWu | what do you guys think about GOOG? |
| 6thworld | yes HFD all |
| dayve | about fairly valued |
| 6thworld | GOOG = trada's paradise |
| CMaoxian | are you an owner yinwu, or a prospective owner? |
| YinWu | holding 500 shares at 240 |
| YinWu | not sure whether to sell |
| CMaoxian | did you buy it for a trade or as an investment? |
| dayve | take a little off the table |
| 6thworld | yeah i would take a little off the table YinWU |
| YinWu | ic |
| YinWu | what about ELN? |
| YinWu | ive been holding that for months now |
| 6thworld | dinner bell, BBIAB |
| CMaoxian | hi budd |
| Budd_Foxx | hello |
| CMaoxian | i'm going to focus on a couple of restaurant stocks tonight |
| Budd_Foxx | ok |
| CMaoxian | the first one is Panera Bread, PNRA |
| Budd_Foxx | like DAVE |
| Budd_Foxx | ok |
| CMaoxian |  |
| RedEyes | nice chart |
| CMaoxian | PNRA is going to open another 150 stores this year i think |
| CMaoxian | they have no debt which is nice |
| Budd_Foxx | they have a good product |
| YinWu | what do they make? |
| RedEyes | only only had one 2:1 split back in 2002 |
| CMaoxian | average annual earnings growth the last five years has been north of 100% |
| CMaoxian | they make "artisan bread", yinwu ;-) |
| Budd_Foxx | mostly a morning place for breakfast foods |
| CMaoxian | when we lived in chicago i noticed a lot of worker ants carrying panera bags, so i think they do a good lunch and coffee biz too, budd |
| joe | can someone take a look at a stock for me? |
| CMaoxian | sure joe |
| joe | TUG |
| YinWu | is $66 for PNRA too high of an entry point? |
| CMaoxian | PNRA will prolly earn $2 a share next year |
| joe | what do you do with a stock making new highs? how to get in? |
| CMaoxian | you mean for a trade or as an investment? |
| ks | Anyone else see the H&S pattern forming in the S & P 500 |
| joe | well..swing trade |
| YinWu | H&S? |
| CMaoxian | TUG is a super small cap, very thinly traded |
| ks | head and shoulders |
| YinWu | oo ok |
| joe | i see..but it had a nice breakout on high volume |
| CMaoxian | yes, i see that joe |
| CMaoxian | it would be nice if it came in a bit, then you could use the Dummy techniques to get long: a buy stop above a "down" or "inside" bar |
| CMaoxian | but TUG is so thinly traded... i'm very wary dealing with those kind of stocks while trading |
| CMaoxian | hi jill |
| jill | Hi! Just lurking |
| CMaoxian | lurk away! |
| CMaoxian | the second stock i want to mention after Panera is Darden Restaurants |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | DRI is Red Lobster and Olive Garden |
| james | look at the door slam on a 5 min of friday |
| james | its still at the bottom of near support |
| CMaoxian | apparently Red Lobster is doing very well but i haven't been to one since 1978 |
| CMaoxian | i went to the Olive Garden once... any of you guys Olive Garden fans? |
| YinWu | olive garden kinda sucks |
| CMaoxian | anyway, DRI may earn $1.90 next year |
| YinWu | red lobster is great though |
| CMaoxian | hi karin |
| RedEyes | I love it, but the wife is not a fan of italian |
| karin | hi there |
| karin | sorry |
| karin | hi members |
| james | well - does anyone cook anymore? its kinda like a long term retiree play |
| jill | I've been to one in NJ. Can never get a seat! |
| karin | mike sent me |
| CMaoxian | Ave annual earnings growth at Darden around 25% the last five years |
| nvdog | Olive Garden in Reno does a good business |
| Smithe | Olive Garden is to one place we can bring the kids to enoy pasta without being embarassed in the afternoon! |
| CMaoxian | james, this is the thing: these restaurant stocks are demographic plays |
| james | tall style - and have been positive for a long time |
| james | oil is the only thing stoppin em |
| james | the only "headwind" |
| CMaoxian | both PNRA and DRI should be on your radar screens |
| joe | where do you think this could go? its approaching 35 |
| james | one thing though - volume is really light these days |
| CMaoxian | remember what the great leon levy said: "... the factors that create opportunity are emotions such as fear, which can drive prices far below fair value, and changes that create unknowns, which can flummox those players trying to outfox the market." |
| CMaoxian | the change here is that no one cooks anymore |
| YinWu | speaking of restaurants |
| YinWu | maoxian, what do u think about BWLD? |
| YinWu | they were pumped by motley fools awhile ago |
| YinWu | and they really are a great restaurant |
| karin | hey....I cook |
| nvdog | whats for dinner Karin? |
| CMaoxian | you're in the minority, karin |
| karin | cowboy steak |
| nvdog | yahoooo! |
| karin | mushroom medley |
| karin | and baked potatoes |
| karin | homemade blueberry ice cream |
| CMaoxian | i don't know that Buffalo Wing place, yinwu, it's so small-cap it's off the radar |
| karin | Whole Foods in Austin, Texas, has a great new concept store |
| CMaoxian | Darden has two new restaurants called Bahama Breeze and Smokey Bones, has anyone ever been to one of these places? |
| karin | with small food stations where a chef prepares everything fresh right on the spot |
| CMaoxian | WFMI is a winner, karin |
| karin | yep |
| james | no doubt |
| karin | you eat great food, drink a glass of wine and then go shop |
| CMaoxian | spending recklessly they hope |
| scoot | hi guys |
| CMaoxian | hey scoot |
| karin | they even have an Italian ice cream counter |
| nvdog | hey Scoot |
| karin | Parking is underneath, so your car stays cool |
| Sam-nite | is that the main store downtown? I used to live in austin |
| karin | very important here in Texas |
| karin | yes |
| karin | totally renewed and remodeled |
| CMaoxian | i parked on the roof at whole foods in evanston |
| karin | a dream |
| karin | for foodies |
| CMaoxian | why don't you just move in? |
| karin | I live in Houston |
| james | karin, how much ya carryin on margin? |
| james | lol |
| Sam-nite | our newest whole foods in DC has both roof top and basement parking. |
| karin | too hot here |
| CMaoxian | here's a chart of Domino's which went public last year |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | i'm not wild about the pizza biz (saturation) |
| CMaoxian | you've got pizza hut, dominos, papa john's, little caesar's, and a gazillion ma and pa shops |
| nvdog | little caesars is NOT pizza |
| karin | yeah, people want gourmet pizzas |
| CMaoxian | that's why the pizza biz net margins are usually below 5% |
| karin | Wolfgang Puck type |
| CMaoxian | right karin, so here's a chart of California Pizza Kitchen |
| CMaoxian |  |
| Sam-nite | right. retail food is too mundane. competitive that cuts into margins. any interest in tech? |
| CMaoxian | i thought little caesar's did pizza? |
| nvdog | they call it pizza |
| CMaoxian | Sam-nite, these restaurant charts all look like bubble tech to me ;-) |
| CMaoxian | Average check at CPKI is over $12 so their margins are a little better |
| CMaoxian | here's the chart of Yum! Brands (ya know, Pizza Hut, KFC, and Taco Bell) |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | that chart doesn't look mundane, sam-nite! |
| YinWu | is anyone betting on KKD? |
| YinWu | i really thought KKD would succeed |
| CMaoxian | KKD broke many hearts |
| nvdog | the carb thing didn't help kkd |
| YinWu | i love their donuts |
| CMaoxian | Atkins Schmatkins |
| karin | cooking books either |
| YinWu | omg i might go get some donuts right now |
| karin | be strong |
| nvdog | if all people were like yinwu and me KKD would be at 100 |
| CMaoxian | drink a glass of water, yinwu! |
| YinWu | hahah |
| YinWu | seriously though |
| YinWu | look around in america |
| YinWu | the middle class loves junk food |
| Sam-nite | are you betting on yum going much higher? really? |
| CMaoxian | so do the lower and upper classes |
| RedEyes | correction, all classes |
| YinWu | looking around in places like walmart, i see that about 70% of the people are overweight |
| james | look everywhere - we all love junk food |
| ssmkim | What are you thoughs on VDSI & NEM? |
| CMaoxian | it's pretty rich, i agree sam-nite |
| RedEyes | so what is your take on the restraurant biz, CM? |
| CMaoxian | WMT population may skew a bit on the fat side |
| Sam-nite | vdsi overvalued but watch nem for a move up with gold |
| TheBlackMamba | All that junk food causes cancer. |
| RedEyes | they look like solid companies, just need to look for a good entry |
| CMaoxian | well red, i like darden and panera best |
| YinWu | cmao |
| YinWu | when are u going to buy panera? |
| YinWu | it sounds like an interesting growth stock |
| YinWu | but as a value investor, i'm not experienced with entering high priced stocks |
| RedEyes | speaking of restraurants, I have to leave - the kids are taking me out to dinner you folks have a great fathers day |
| Sam-nite | vdsi popped over 11 this week left entry point back at 6. great move from 2 and half within past year |
| RedEyes | thanks for the chat session and the great charts CM |
| CMaoxian | i try to time my entries by judging the popular sentiment |
| RedEyes | later |
| CMaoxian | thx for coming by, red |
| YinWu | maoxian are u currently holding panera/ |
| CMaoxian | no yinwu |
| james | anyone got any ideas about the odds of a certain world traveling spec being short KBH on friday/ |
| james | 3:5? |
| CMaoxian | he's in pain, james |
| CMaoxian | PNRA is not exactly a stock for "value" investors |
| CMaoxian | i think all the stocks that we featured in the last chat have done OK since then |
| CMaoxian | redeyes didn't tell us where he was going to dinner... red lobster perhaps. |
| YinWu | i love their cheddarbread |
| karin | you really must be hungry! |
| scoot | they are too expensive |
| CMaoxian | Anyone have any notable day trades we can review? |
| TheBlackMamba | I sure could o for some BBQribs. Big Daddy's always eat meat. |
| YinWu | i traded IIJI last week |
| YinWu | that was a rollercoaster |
| karin | oo |
| CMaoxian | scoot the average check at RedLob is $14.94 |
| TheBlackMamba | that was a doozy, you mean |
| nvdog | the IIJI story is whacky |
| YinWu | yeah |
| CMaoxian | i saw that TraderMike mentioned it, lemme look at the intraday chart |
| scoot | that seems low. i haven't been there in awhile. |
| YinWu | yeah red lob is pretty cheap |
| YinWu | lunch for 2 usually comes out to less than $25 |
| CMaoxian | oh my, it looks like a lot of folks got trapped and killed there |
| scoot | i figure i can buy some nice seafood and make it better |
| CMaoxian | you can scoot, but then you'd miss out on that wonderful plastic decor |
| TheBlackMamba | I think i can blow a fifty at RL. |
| YinWu | yeah |
| karin | i traded ECST up and down |
| YinWu | IIJI was pumped/shorted by 100% traders |
| CMaoxian | how many stones do you weigh, mamba? |
| ssmkim | IPII |
| TheBlackMamba | Emerald or topaz? |
| CMaoxian | did IIJI have shares available to short? |
| CMaoxian | (a stone is 14 lbs i think, mamba) |
| james | i tried sometime last week - just to see - could only get 450 |
| nvdog | not according to Trader mike |
| CMaoxian | thx nvdog |
| TheBlackMamba | 230lbs with shoes, so sometimes 2 plates hit the spot. |
| CMaoxian | i was once 220 lbs, mamba, but i started to wheeze and cut back my portion size |
| CMaoxian | after that break in IIJI late tuesday, i don't see any reason why folks would be looking long |
| YinWu | IIJI was a scam from the beginning |
| YinWu | i dont even know wtf the company does |
| CMaoxian | boy, i can feel the pain emanating from this chart: |
| CMaoxian |  |
| TheBlackMamba | Your right, I'm on a certain path to health problems. I've begn my decent to swiftness. No cents in givin XOMA all my money. |
| YinWu | hey |
| YinWu | whats the story with ABLE and GEOI? |
| YinWu | im not familiar with energy / oil |
| CMaoxian | karin can you walk us through your ECST trade |
| YinWu | but why have they been popping up on traderblogs so frequently? |
| karin | I was in GEOI too |
| karin | now GEOI is actually a pretty good company |
| karin | the are making mud products for drilling projects |
| karin | very much in demand |
| YinWu | drilling projects for oil? |
| karin | yes |
| YinWu | when the price of crude goes up, how does that affect GEOI? |
| karin | now it goes up too |
| YinWu | ic |
| karin | most oil service companies do |
| karin | very much in demand |
| CMaoxian | ok i have a chart of ECST in front of me, karin what was the trade? |
| karin | let me check my records |
| CMaoxian | thx |
| CMaoxian | i have GEOI too, if anyone wants to share their precise entry and exit |
| nvdog | what time frame you lookin at cmao |
| CMaoxian | i look at the 15 min and 30 min on the intraday, nvdog |
| 6thworld | gots to go all |
| karin | GEOI bought June 14 at 15.97 |
| 6thworld | have a great weekdat |
| CMaoxian | thx for coming by, 6th |
| nvdog | seeya 6th |
| karin | at end of day (almost) |
| karin | sold next day 17.50 |
| karin | nice work if you can get it |
| CMaoxian | did you buy it pre-open? |
| karin | no end of day |
| karin | sold around 10 AM |
| CMaoxian | oh right, sorry, i'm looking at the 15th |
| karin | felt very confident |
| CMaoxian | why did you buy it there? |
| karin | had my alert on it |
| YinWu | what alert |
| karin | to buy under 16 |
| joe | what about oil...its killing me not to take advantage of this run... |
| karin | look at XTO |
| james | what the hell |
| CMaoxian | joe, if you don't trade crude you can always play it indirectly via the XLE or OIH |
| james | all night long i've been waitin to hear the oil storys |
| james | heres mine |
| james | SU |
| james | all week long |
| james | it's a sale here |
| CMaoxian | karin the 17.50 exit was nice, can you share why you exited there? |
| TheBlackMamba | You know, there may be some sense in an investment with XOMA. could you comment on that CMaoxian? |
| karin | yeah....profit |
| CMaoxian | one sec, mamba |
| karin | hit and run |
| TheBlackMamba | xto... todays market trend is to go above the high there, |
| CMaoxian | did you have an eye on the high from the 10th, karin? |
| karin | yes |
| karin | watching it intensely every day |
| karin | first saw the stock on Mike's site |
| karin | and heck, I know the company |
| joe | buy it on a close about 35? |
| CMaoxian | what was the logic on buying below $16? |
| karin | mud is very important |
| joe | above |
| karin | good question ....don't remember |
| CMaoxian | ;-) |
| karin | but my emotions very good |
| karin | like I said, I was confident the whole way |
| CMaoxian | my emotions aren't |
| karin | I go by them |
| CMaoxian | the buyers of IIJI were also confident the whole way |
| karin | if I get nervous, I run |
| CMaoxian | a stop-loss is the best way to calm the nerves |
| karin | true |
| karin | very true |
| karin | got me out of ABLE the other day |
| CMaoxian | mamba, xoma is $1.86 and the last time i looked at it it was in the teens |
| nvdog | you are fortunate karin, if my emotions rule, my trading gets very bad |
| karin | the latest Active Trader Magazine has an excellent article on how to use them |
| TheBlackMamba | It's not magic. |
| CMaoxian | when i feel very confident, i stop and reassess things, lol |
| nvdog | exactly cmao |
| CMaoxian | but to each her own.... |
| nvdog | whatever works is best! |
| karin | well, not betting on it either |
| james | oh hey mao - got a DVD recomendation |
| Spock | anyone cares to make prediction on crude oil next week? |
| karin | up |
| CMaoxian | no spock, just follow the trend |
| james | newsradio finally came out on dvd - seasons 1&2 |
| CMaoxian | which is up at the moment |
| scoot | up |
| nvdog | slick |
| CMaoxian | newsradio? dunno it |
| james | phil hartman, stephen root, and the 14 yr old lookin guy from kids in the hall |
| CMaoxian | i'll make a note |
| CMaoxian | lemme post my crude chart |
| james | it's gonna get nuts |
| CMaoxian |  |
| james | where's fuzzy been - pyramiding? |
| CMaoxian | a thing of beauty, the channel |
| karin | each hurrican will raise it more |
| james | check the parabolic spike in the refiners |
| karin | valero comes to mind |
| CMaoxian | fuzzy is obviously long, has been since the 9th at $54.40 |
| james | SU - CNQ - HOC |
| james | let 'em rest - and pile in |
| james | lots of drama - beware |
| YinWu | mao how come i cant open links in here |
| YinWu | i click but nothing happens |
| karin | same here |
| CMaoxian | meanwhile in SUV land |
| CMaoxian | hmm lemme check, yinwu |
| CMaoxian | it works for me |
| scoot | SUV's will soon be a thing of the past |
| CMaoxian | anyone else have trouble opening the charts? |
| karin | here |
| scoot | yes trouble with opening |
| CMaoxian | weird, hrm, any techies here know why they wouldn't be opening |
| james | not me |
| CMaoxian | bummer, well you can scroll the thru the transcript once i post it to view the charts |
| Spock | press on ctrl & click the link |
| Spock | sector-wise health care & energy break out, dunno if this mini market rally has much fuel left... |
| karin | yay |
| karin | it works |
| CMaoxian | thx spock, you're a technical genius |
| scoot | it works! you rule spock. |
| karin | genius |
| Spock | i just hit on any keys i have |
| nvdog | cmao, on sunday june 5th chat Roger asked how people felt about the silicon free solar play - DSTI - boy was he on target |
| CMaoxian | i think it might have fuel left spock, cuz my sentiment indicator registered a low on the week ending May 20th |
| karin | DSTI was a beauty to trade |
| CMaoxian | what price was it when roger mentioned it? |
| nvdog | 6 |
| nvdog | 7 |
| nvdog | somewhere in there |
| CMaoxian | yowza |
| CMaoxian | i wonder how he knew it would explode... coincidence perhaps? |
| nvdog | dunno, none of us responded to his question |
| james | that's the maoxian effect |
| TheBlackMamba | he was in a good mood ;) |
| karin | on that note, dinner time! |
| karin | thanks for the chat |
| karin | see you next week |
| scoot | bye |
| CMaoxian | DSTI is a good unusual suspect... explosive volume |
| YinWu | what does DSTI do? |
| YinWu | i really need to learn about energy sector |
| YinWu | this stuff looks so profitable |
| nvdog | silicon free photovoltaics |
| YinWu | does it reduce the price of solar cells? |
| nvdog | yes |
| YinWu | the chief problem with solar energy right now is that solar panels are really expensive |
| CMaoxian | knowing what they do is unnecessary while day trading |
| james | did anyone see that fx propaganda piece oil storm? |
| CMaoxian | nice shorthand for DSTI is DipSTIck |
| CMaoxian | no james |
| YinWu | DTSI looks interesting |
| YinWu | im gonna do some research on their products |
| nvdog | if they are successful they could get huge market share because of cost advantages |
| YinWu | if its mostly wall street hype, it could be a good short candidate |
| CMaoxian | roger hasn't joined us because he retired to his carribean island |
| nvdog | that is the question yinwu |
| Sam-nite | anyone looked at DESC? |
| nvdog | off the grid no doubt, cmao |
| joe | very nice on desc |
| CMaoxian | another microcap energy stock, where do you guys find these things? |
| Spock | you'll get all of them by searching for %gainer last week, LOL |
| CMaoxian | ;-) spock |
| TheBlackMamba | ya you will |
| CMaoxian | i guess the scanners are picking them up as they explode, a la BOOM |
| CMaoxian | and then folks dogpile in |
| CMaoxian | action begets action, the old musical chairs game |
| james | thats all its ever been |
| CMaoxian | here's the BOOM chart i posted the other day |
| Sam-nite | hope the same happens to MKTY |
| Sam-nite | boom! |
| YinWu | is anyone following ELN tysabri news? |
| CMaoxian |  |
| CMaoxian | no yinwu |
| CMaoxian | i guess we'll wrap it up here, any parting comments observations, etc? |
| CMaoxian | remember i'll post the transcript later |
| nvdog | good show cmao! |
| scoot | ok have good week |
| CMaoxian | thx dog, slightly under 200 chatters but approaching the goal ;-) |
| TheBlackMamba | mkty, xoma pork ribs rule |
| Spock | nice chat, thx mao |
| CMaoxian | thx for coming by, spock |
| Sam-nite | ya thanx. my first time. enjoyed |
| Dublin | thx |
| CMaoxian | OK, thanks for coming by everyone, and thanks to Trader Mike for plugging the chat to his many readers |
| TheBlackMamba | Thx Cmao |
| CMaoxian | see ya mamba |
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