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Monday, June 6





Chat Transcript for Sunday, June 5, 2005

Here's the transcript of last night's chat for those who couldn't make it.

Posted on June 6, 2005 at 7:00, GMT
6thworld how CS
6thworld howdy rather
CMaoxian hi 6th
6thworld hows it goin?
6thworld thanks for the reply
6thworld via gmail
CMaoxian we're all slowly recovering from our colds
6thworld yeah S got wiped out last week
6thworld but its her fault, she didnt listen to me
CMaoxian not sure if our coughs will ever go away given the environment here
6thworld what's it called when i'm able to use a trading platform but different brokers to execute, API compatabilty?
6thworld bleech, too bad.
CMaoxian no idea, compatability breaks the no four syllable + word rule
CMaoxian hi chud
6thworld hi chud
chud hey guys
CMaoxian hey roger
roger Hello
6thworld hiya
CMaoxian i've got about half a dozen charts or so to post
CMaoxian did you guys have any notable charts you wanted to look at in the past week?
roger hello C
roger start with one of yours C
CMaoxian hi scoot
6thworld hi rog and scoot
CMaoxian ok let's look at Boeing first
scoot hi cm. hi guys.
CMaoxian yo james
james hey
6thworld hey james
james how about the rookie fed gov?
james that shit cracked me up
chud boeing ticker?
scoot diff chat platform
james fiat monetary systems - what are ya gonna do
admin BA chud
6thworld ok what time frame for BA?
chud thanks
6thworld Daily?
CMaoxian thanks admin
CMaoxian here's the BA chart
CMaoxian
CMaoxian monthly 6th
6thworld k
6thworld looks like a double top
CMaoxian yes scoot, these chats are now being recorded for posterity so admin removed smiley ability
scoot ;)
6thworld :P
CMaoxian or he thought he did anyway ;-)
CMaoxian hi rr
james its kind of wild that airplane makers are a great company - its just most of their customers arent - although gov't contracts help out a little i'm sure
rr ÄãºÃ
rr hi peeps
6thworld hi rr
CMaoxian yes james, it helps that we're fighting a permanent and unnecessary war
6thworld so $65 is the make or break line
CMaoxian anyway you can see that BA is approaching that old high and has had a lovely run
CMaoxian yes 6th, that's a spot to watch
james it'll buts that old high - but not without creating drama
james bust*
CMaoxian did any of you think at the time of 9/11, hey this is a great time to buy Boeing?
james under 60 would be nice
james i dont think it goes under 55
6thworld well if i had the cash i would've bought some blue chips
6thworld when people are scared, you gotta be greedy
james hell yeah
james i've never heard that - i like it
scoot unless of course they are scared for a good reason
roger what chart were you looking at?
CMaoxian see above, rog
roger thx
CMaoxian this next chart should warm the hearts of many chicagoans
james i know
james CME
roger chucky chesse pizza?
CMaoxian
CMaoxian you guessed it, james
james i saw it break out last week
CMaoxian and anyone who pays for a CME data feed has no excuse for not buying this one
6thworld looks like futures is the place to be
james my capital had already been committed when it happened though
james especially in this bond bull market
james thats what it is
CMaoxian yes, their eurodollar biz is booming
james i know the CBOT has the bonds - but they have the eurodolla
james exactly
roger cn you short it?
james and spx
roger can
CMaoxian sure rog, if you're out of your mind ;-)
chud that volume wasn't too impressive for a breakout was it?
roger who is ane anyway?
CMaoxian breakout shmeakout, all i know is that it's at a new high
roger sane
james i dont think so - it good just be going flat
roger buy the pullback?
roger when it makes one?
rr why is BA doing soo good ? selling so much airplanes, then i guess oil demand will go up also
CMaoxian they make missiles too rr
CMaoxian did i spell that right?
CMaoxian mistletoe?
rr ok
scoot i think missile is correct
chud what kind of stop loss do you use on these longer term plays chairman?
6thworld brb, screamin baby
CMaoxian none chud, that's why i got killed when the bubble deflated
CMaoxian speaking of the internet bubble....
CMaoxian
james lord
scoot yeah sigh
james lol
james i heard THAT
6thworld just wait
6thworld she;ll come down
CMaoxian i thought it was overvalued at $85 but clearly i was wrong
james although - you know that when they annonce the spx inclusion thats a SALE
james so thats what i'm waiting for
james and i will short it
CMaoxian prolly true, james
james not much
james but some
james i knew it with martha
rr yes
james and didnt do it
james and watched 14 points tick off in 10 days
CMaoxian well if there are 5 million blogs and they each make a buck a day from adsense, then GOOG is making at least 5 million a day, lol
6thworld not on my blog
CMaoxian i make about a buck a day, which is why i moved to china ;-)
CMaoxian you can live on that here
rr but the food is good there :)
CMaoxian yes, no MSG
james latin america sounds like more fun, and cleaner
CMaoxian hi ks
ks hello
6thworld hi ks
james i've got to reiterate my sentiments earlier - what the hell is it with federal reserve board governors?
james why cant they leave us alone?
CMaoxian hi brich
brich hello
CMaoxian GOOG may earn $6.70 in 2006
6thworld hi brich
james i mean the yahooligans moan about MM manipulating them, but what about the fed? they create so much risk its almost laughable
james i'm done - i've said my peace
roger the fed guys are old their prostrates are bigger than thier brains..they can't help it
CMaoxian prostates
james the simplest answer is probably the right one
roger prostrate!!!!
roger they got big ones..
CMaoxian if you're really worried james you should convert all your dollars into renminbi
roger hahaaaaa
james for what?
james more dollars?
james possibly
CMaoxian here's a quick GOOG story
CMaoxian we were in the US and spaced the fact that baby and i both needed visas for china
CMaoxian we're used to traveling around with the gold card (US passport) and forgot the chinese still want a visa
CMaoxian so i googled "visa service china" or something
CMaoxian clicked on a sponsored ad
CMaoxian nice clean website for a visa service
CMaoxian sent em our passports and $300 and voila we had visas
CMaoxian the point is that for that service the google ad paid off big
rr us $ ?
CMaoxian yes rr
james so thats why the economy is doing well
CMaoxian it was a rush job
rr sounds expensive
CMaoxian it is rr, but i'm rich ;-)
rr :)
james beaucratic hassles impeed a lot, thats a cool story MAO
rr i am not :(
rr i get my china Visa in HongKong
ks Try to google this "what is the answer to life, the universe and everything?"
CMaoxian that's the way to do it rr
roger tequila
CMaoxian do you eat the worm, rog?
roger is the answer
roger that's mesqual
roger ?sp?
6thworld not tequilla, i think its crushing your enemy
scoot 42
roger with tequila you are invisible and can crush your enemy
rr how do people like that silicon-free solar panel play ?
CMaoxian i thought there was a worm in tequila
CMaoxian here's another chart to consider:
roger only if you put in there C
CMaoxian
CMaoxian mine wouldn't fit through the hole, rog
roger hahaaaaaaa
CMaoxian KBH should be considered together with this one:
CMaoxian
james KBH - what's that movie with nicole kidman and tom cruise where its American circa 19th century?
roger wonder what kbh will say at earnings call
CMaoxian come again, james?
chud born on 4th of july?
james tom cruise gets a chunk of land on one of the land grabs where they put up part of the lousianna purchase up for frontier settlers for free?
roger housing mkt strong..they're only bringing inventory on line as needed not an over suplly this time
CMaoxian i try to avoid tom cruise movies
james and tom cruise grabs the stake with the flag on it - meaning he beat everyone else to the land, so its now his
james thats they they way i think of alan greenspan and the homebuilders - i want to say the movie is "far and away" or some crap like that
roger i wonder how toll brothers are doing
james and the land grab AINT NO WHERE NEAR DONE
james not in the south
james they're grabbing everything
CMaoxian i posted a chart of TOL the other day rog
roger cool
james my cousin is married to a commercial realtor - hes bankin, and land sales are skyrockting - some doubling in less than five years
james and nothing is stopping it
roger who is grabbing everything?
CMaoxian the median household income of TOL house buyers is 150K so they ain't the kind of folks who are gonna back out of anything
roger why back out?
james individuals mainly, but NC is building alot of residential complexes - all to be retail site
james mainly
CMaoxian oh if rates go up big, rog
james wal-marts - targets - and all kinds of suburbanite applebees complexes are growing like weeds
james shit, and the beach - that shit is on fire
CMaoxian TOL has a backlog of contracts up the wazoo
roger I think the smart money is taking some $ anbd profits out of the real estate mkt
james bobby dubal went to topsail island recently and is building a house for "investment purposes" said the realtor
CMaoxian KBH will prolly earn $9 a share next year
james its unreal
roger we need a few more cover stories about the bubble and greeny to open his mouth about it a few more times
CMaoxian a lot more cover stories rog ;-)
james and what happened with rates last week - will give us another two years of really cheap money
6thworld after the playboy bunny wanted to become a real estate investor instead of a model i know its over johnny
chud what kind of homes does KB build?
james but the fed will fuck up something
roger i think a lot of people are going to out on the real estate limg..
roger limb
CMaoxian i think KBH's order backlog is even higher than TOL's
CMaoxian nice ones, chud
roger people are dying to get out there right now...
james yeah - more cover stories will make it even worse, and because of liquidity - it may prolong both the boom, and the bust
james its too bad you dont get the simpsons in beijing MAO
roger there is a lot of creative financing that has been brought out to to " here let me help ypu buy"
james we get a full hour tonight
CMaoxian chud, they build "entry-level" homes but have started to build some high end ones too
chud thanks chairman
roger a lot of assholes have piucked up arms and interet only loans
roger interest
james and they've been the smartest roger
CMaoxian they're doing the high end ones mainly in vegas and CA
james if you've had an arm the last 2 years
roger the dumest
CMaoxian welcome karmik
james you have a crystal ball
roger dumbest
CMaoxian we do get the simpsons here, james
james no way
karmik Hi chairman
karmik and everybody else
CMaoxian yes, on Star World
james they are speculating roger - i'm not denying that, but rates havent move against them
james and with cap appreciation
karmik Here in PA, its the boom is not as bad (not that many arms and interste only morts)
roger right and if you look back to 2000 30 yr fixed were over 6% and we were having record home sales
roger rates aren't going to hurt for awhile
roger carry costs are still low
james bonds have been in a bull market for 20+ years
scoot hey karmik i'm in pa too
james so, each year practically has meant cheaper money
james on a relative basis
karmik hi scoot
scoot hi
roger right but most real estate speculators are over extended on margin
james which is why 6% will seem sky high whenever we get there
karmik whaddya think
6thworld hey CM, anythoughts on dummying ECIL
karmik I know lots of people are buying somewhat beaten up homes, fixing them
6thworld on the dailys
karmik and turning thm over for a handsome profit
CMaoxian 6th lemme post a couple more charts before we go intraday
roger true k
karmik scoot, philly or the burgh ?
6thworld karmik start lookin for foreclosures
james on the whole though - it is probably the soundest speculation there is - your exchanging fiat currency for hard real estate
karmik I'm not turning any
scoot i see lots of very expensive homes being built around here
karmik homes, but do feel I missed out
6thworld people are blowing themselves up
scoot state college
james no doubt 6th
6thworld james: fiat, isnt that a car?
6thworld lol
james thats what my dollar feels like
CMaoxian my question is how are first-time buyers handling these prices?
james like i'm driving a fiat
roger with cheap loans C
6thworld CM: they cant handle it
CMaoxian can't be that cheap, rog
james they're bringing in their parents to help finance
roger lol
karmik I know state college, scoot
karmik Penn State
scoot nice and quiet. yep.
james so a family has their home - a beach home, and is also helping finance their children's home
CMaoxian lemme finish up the long view charts with a couple of retailers
karmik me in monroeville
scoot the burgh
ks I spoke to a first time buyer, one of my friends-friends. He borrowed 103% of the loan to cover the mortgage and downpayment, but he complained about mortgage insurance
karmik yup
CMaoxian
roger a lot of greedy people goning to get hurt..
karmik Jim Rogers said yesterday on fox that he's shorting homebuilders
karmik and suffering lossess
james another land grab mao
karmik but is going to continue shorting the hell out of them
6thworld i planning my vulture capitalist move
james vornado realty trust loaded up on shld when it was KMRT and below 70
scoot what's that sixth?
CMaoxian yes james, i know a lot of "value" investors bought a lot of KMRT when it was low
karmik I'm curious too; what is a vulture capitalist ?
6thworld i'm waiting for the foreclosure market to really get going, this way i can snap up properties
6thworld i'm ciricling the dead houses
6thworld lol
roger better question how do vultures feed their young?
karmik Ok the firesale buyer
6thworld vultures have young?
roger it is just a good mental picutre..vultures reguratating stinky road kill to their young
james ok boys - i'm out
6thworld later james
CMaoxian so SHLD will maybe earn $6.75 a share next year
scoot did rog gross you out?
karmik so sixth, do you have a guesstimate of when its gonna happen ?
6thworld didnt gross me out
karmik the foreclosure apocalypse ?
6thworld karmik, its happening now
6thworld over 1600 new foreclosures every month in essex co, nj
scoot i'm glad i'm not in debt
roger isn't sears picking up a large restructing fee with kmart?
karmik but its clarly not nationwide yet, right ?
CMaoxian SHLD seems richly priced to me, but whadda i know
chud Every Kmart i've been in in the last year has been a ghost town
6thworld karmik: well depends on where you are of course
6thworld some areas arent as bad as other
CMaoxian ditto for every Sears i've visited, chud
karmik I thibk people have unrelaistically high expectations about "fast eddie"
6thworld but look for the hot markets and you'll find foreclosures
CMaoxian yes karmik, and i like that term, where'd you get it? ;-)
roger 6th...1600 foreclousres a month....the bubble is bursting
karmik id deosnt look that bad in PA, atleast not yet
chud Sears gets a few more shoppers out here
karmik on stephen vita's blog
karmik tader alchemy
karmik I read that a lot
6thworld roger i get a monthly mag that has 40 pages of foreclosures each mo
roger cool 6th
CMaoxian hey that bastard stole my "fast eddie" ;-)
karmik sorry, didnt know that
roger fast eddie the pool hustler?
6thworld i was thinking "crazy eddie"
CMaoxian last long term chart to consider:
CMaoxian
6thworld ug dinner is not agreeing with me
chud i got long on URBN last week on a dummy off the daily chart
CMaoxian i don't like specialty retail cuz i don't understand it, and the t-shirt i'm wearing is 15 years old
karmik trends change very quickly
CMaoxian above $53.50, chud?
chud the kids love that stuff. spend lots of parents money
6thworld not my kid
scoot only the polyester is left
6thworld she'll be wearing a potatoe sack
chud yep chairman
karmik I do know from my less nerdy friends that retailer "express" is real hot
6thworld and not allowed to leave the house :)
karmik among people my age and a little younger 18-26
CMaoxian a buck and a quarter initial risk, eh chud?
chud yep chairman. working out so far. got stopped out of a couple other similar plays friday.
CMaoxian did you move the stop to B/E?
chud yea
chud would you have?
chud moved it under Thursday's long up bar
CMaoxian i don't like playing off the daily chud, but yes
CMaoxian yes, that's a good spot
chud i remember you saying those long up bars are good places to move stops
brich how soon is it wise to move the stop up?
CMaoxian yes chud
brich I normally do an adjustment after 1pm during the trading day
CMaoxian well brich once you cover your initial risk you should think about moving the initial stop
CMaoxian anyone have any intraday charts they want to review
brich how far up?
CMaoxian i have IIJI here and that's it
brich not sure if there is a trading methodology for moving stops
chud let's look at GOOG for Tue and Wed
CMaoxian the most conservative go to B/E, brich
6thworld B/E??/
brich I didn't trade last week and was out of it, so I'm not sure of anything that rocked in a good dummy play
jaloti wazzup
scoot hey jaloti
jaloti hey
chud b/e=breakeven
brich I have a dummy question: B/E stands for what?
brich gotcha
brich thx chud
6thworld hy jaloti
jaloti hey 6th
6thworld thanks
6thworld rr: thats a horrible link
6thworld hows it going jalotiu
rr i love it
jaloti ok
CMaoxian hi jaloti
jaloti waddup cm
CMaoxian you didn't pimp this chat so we're slightly under 200 chatters
brich lol
jaloti doh!
CMaoxian this new chat app is only good for 50 chatters anyway
jaloti that's what I'm missing--i need to do more pimpin
brich new chat app? does this allow for logging?
chud pimpin aint easy
CMaoxian oh, and i'm gonna put up a donation button so you bastards can chip in $5 to help pay for it
jaloti I need that "Joseph Smith--big pimpin'" shirt
CMaoxian yes brich this will all be posted to the site
brich depends how well I do trading for the previous week
roger have a good week..cya
CMaoxian patting my ass is nice but doesn't pay the bills
brich I'll pass on patting your ass
brich interesting shirt
rr 3 in the morning here, i better go to bed, bye
jaloti once again, my son points these things out to me
CMaoxian thx for coming by rr
jaloti My LDS friend was not amused
CMaoxian here's a look at IIJI, a good one for understanding the moving stop
CMaoxian
chud i need one of those for next time those mormons come knockin on my door
brich do they have a 'Brigham Young is my homeboy' t-shirt?
jaloti kicked the bear in the face? that's martial arts?
brich sorry CM, I forgot we are going for a more serious chat format
CMaoxian np brich
CMaoxian but you misspelled brigham
6thworld ok folks, i'm outta here
6thworld have a good week
jaloti iiji looks like win some, lose some eh?
brich I did?
CMaoxian yeah
jaloti see you later 6th
scoot bye 6th
CMaoxian maybe win some breakeven some, jaloti
CMaoxian depending on how well you managed the stop
chud looks like good evidence for not moving your stops
jaloti even better
jaloti got ya cm, now I understand that I look a little closer
CMaoxian where did you want to look at GOOG, chud
chud Tues & Wed
brich alright, the wife is bitching at me to get some house chores done... talk to you guys next week
chud seeya brich
CMaoxian see ya brich
jaloti later br
brich laters
chud you guys ever daytrade using targets?
chud i seem to be up my initial risk quite often only to come back and get stopped at b/e
jaloti GOOG makes me shake my head
jaloti stocks like that keep people listening to Cramer
jaloti I'm convinced more and more a lot of risk is about matching your risk/return to your timeframe.
jaloti not that I know how to do that
jaloti just that I know when I haven't done it right
CMaoxian have you bought more puts, jaloti?
jaloti not on GOOG, that's for sure <VBG>
chud i got long GOOG above that 11:45 bar on Tues.
CMaoxian what price chud?
CMaoxian here's the chart
chud $271.90
jaloti are you out?
chud yea. got stopped out wednesday at 285
CMaoxian
CMaoxian did you use a stop limit, chud?
chud i did on the entry.
jaloti 285 was the exit stop because?
chud i've been using limits for all my entries lately. seems to help a bit with scottrade
CMaoxian very nice, i'm waiting for your chat donation lol
chud i got stopped out in that wed. afternoon downturn
jaloti i mean you picked 285 because?
chud well. that was my one decent winner from the last 2 wks.
CMaoxian ;-)
chud my stop was under Wed's 11 low
chud about 285.30
CMaoxian i'm showing a 282 and change low
chud i probably should've moved it up a little more aggressively since price got to about 292
CMaoxian oh i see the swing you're talking about
CMaoxian nah, i think you prolly did about as good as one can do
jaloti or, one could argue for picking the gap up open price
jaloti at any rate, yes, excellent trade
chud i have been getting flat at close. but decided to hold this one and got lucky i guess.
jaloti should probably nitpick the losers, not the winners, huh?
chud was kind of a nervous night tho
CMaoxian yeah, forget about the winners altogether
chud goog seems to gap up quite often
CMaoxian hair loss, chud?
chud yea..... more hair loss
scoot see you guys next week
jaloti later scoot
CMaoxian have a baby sometime, then you'll really lose it
chud seeya scoot
chud haha
jaloti my kids have turned mine gray, but I still have plenty
CMaoxian ok, looks like we're down to the last 200 chatters
CMaoxian you're a lucky bastard, jaloti
jaloti that's true, actually . . .
CMaoxian thanks for coming by guys, i'll see if i can get this posted
chud i don't know if any'll be left by the time kids get here
jaloti my younger brother had to get hair plugs already
CMaoxian just stop washing your head, chud
CMaoxian you told us that jaloti
chud i'll try that chairman. thanks for the advice
jaloti i forgot--and i'm shocked that you remembered
chud i remember too
CMaoxian i remember everything, alas
chud plugs are disgusting
jaloti you guys must have minds like steel traps
CMaoxian so are dachsunds
jaloti half the time I can't remember where I put my beer . . .
CMaoxian it's balancing on your gut at the moment
chud i come from a long line of men taking balding like men . no headshaving, rugs, plugs, for them. guess i'll do the same
jaloti oh yeah! thanks!
CMaoxian admin is telling me to pull the.... plug
CMaoxian see ya next week
chud damn admin
jaloti alright -- c ya
chud seeya. hopefully will add to the paypal pot this week
jaloti I'll do some pimpin o the chat next week
admin great
chud i need the karma
CMaoxian admin is pleased!
CMaoxian buh-bye!



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