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Wednesday, February 2


Stocks to Watch -- Wednesday, February 2

early

Use the Unusual Suspects and Notable New Highs & Lows lists to make up your rolling Watch List; that's what I do.

Posted on February 2, 2005 at 14:15, GMT

Chat Room Open between 8:30 and 9:30 AM, Eastern Time

In yesterday's chat I got a lot of unsolicited and contradictory advice on fatherhood. All childless chatters are welcome!

Posted on February 2, 2005 at 7:55, GMT

Chart of the Day -- Gold and GLD, Daily Chart

It's amusing that the streetTRACKS Gold ETF launched just nine days before gold's recent peak of $458 and change. It reminds me of my Perfect Timing post of several years ago.

(Barclay's Gold ETF - iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) - began trading on January 28th.)

GOLD and GLD
Gold futures and streetTRACKS Gold Shares (GLD), Daily Chart

Posted on February 2, 2005 at 7:45, GMT

Safe and Cheap

The Fortress That Marty Built, by Steven Goldberg:

"When buying stocks, Whitman's mantra is 'safe and cheap.' Whitman was an expert in bankruptcy investing before entering the fund business, and he favors companies that have the strength to pay off their debts ... Whitman and crew won't buy a stock unless it trades at a steep discount to the worth of the company's underlying assets. They tend to hold a stock for long periods ... 'Unless there are strong and compelling reasons, we don't sell.'"

You should read all of Whitman's Shareholder Letters if you haven't already.

Posted on February 2, 2005 at 7:35, GMT

ROC²

Interview with Robert Rodriguez, by John Waggoner:

"We're entering a period of time where the easy part of earnings growth is over, and so earnings growth is most likely to approximate nominal GDP growth. We assumed nominal gross domestic product would grow 6%. Add 2% in dividends, and you get an average annual gain for stocks of 8%. We're assuming average P-Es will contract from 18 times earnings to 15 times earnings over this period. That's about 3% to 4% a year. You get a return of 5% or less a year from stocks for the next five years, after a reduction of 3% to 4% a year from P-E contraction."

"We have always used periods of distress and chaos to deploy capital. We don't see a lot of that in the marketplace now."

"In bonds, you have inflation risk. At 4% government bond yields, I don't think I'm being compensated for that risk. The inflation numbers are massively under-reported. We think the fundamental inflation level is 2.5% to 3%. If we want to earn 3% after inflation, we don't think much value comes into government bonds until we hit the 5.5% level."
Posted on February 2, 2005 at 7:25, GMT



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