MaoXian.com -- Archive > December 28, 2004

Pervasive Biases Cloud Investors' Thinking

Some interesting bits in this article... it sounds like Sauter and Dickson have come up with a model very much like Value Line's.

The Other Side of Vanguard, by Ira Carnahan: (PDF)

"When would you have gone short stocks with the bubble run-up? Okay, you got it right in 2000. But by any historical measure, you would have gone short in 1997 and 1998 and 1999. And you would have gotten killed."

One of my long-running jokes is that Robert Shiller's genius is largely the result of his dawdling: he published "Irrational Exuberance" in 2000, but he undoubtedly started writing it, and planned to publish it, in 1997.

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 18:15, GMT

Stocks to Watch -- Tuesday, December 28

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 14:15, GMT

Chat Room Open from 8AM-9AM, Eastern Time

Since our Southeast Asian holiday destination was washed away, I will be around for the pre-open chat this morning. Hope to see you then!

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 8:15, GMT

The Daily Zinger -- Taylor Devices

Taylor Devices soars after Asian quake

Day traders made a bundle in this little stock yesterday. The important points here are that TAYD has a 3 million share float and that it did 500 times normal volume. Any scanner looking for an "Unusual Suspect" picked it up from the get-go. As every Dummy knows, once you have your suspect it's just a matter of finding a relatively low-risk spot to get long. Thankfully TAYD gave several off the 15-minute chart as I've pointed out below.

TAYD, 15-min. Chart

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 7:55, GMT

Suddenly Everyone's a Publisher and Everyone's a Critic

Why There's No Escaping the Blog, by David Kirkpatrick:

"Unlike earlier promises of self-publishing revolutions, the blog movement seems to be the real thing. A big reason for that is a tiny innovation called the permalink: a unique web address for each posting on every blog. Instead of linking to web pages, which can change, bloggers link to one another's posts, which typically remain accessible indefinitely. This style of linking also gives blogs a viral quality, so a pertinent post can gain broad attention amazingly fast - and reputations can get taken down just as quickly."

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 7:45, GMT

Phuket Tsunami Pictures

Some amazing pictures of the tsunami snapped from a balcony at a resort hotel in Phuket. "Tsunami" is the Japanese way of saying "HaiXiao," which in Chinese literally means "Ocean Roar."

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 7:35, GMT

Note the Juxtaposition

Amazon sets sales record | Modest holidays for stores

We did all of our holiday shopping online.

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 7:25, GMT

Not a Goldbug, but an Antidollar Bug

A Word From A Dollar Bear, by Robert Lenzner:

"[Buffett's] bet against the dollar, reported at $12 billion in his last annual report (for Dec. 31, 2003), has gotten all the bigger. Now his Berkshire Hathaway has a $20 billion bet in favor of the euro, the pound and six other foreign currencies ... Buffett said that he began buying foreign currency forward contracts when the euro was worth 86 U.S. cents, and kept buying until the price reached $1.20. It's now worth $1.33. Buffett said he is not adding new positions now but has been rolling over contracts as they mature. Berkshire lost $205 million on currency speculations in the first half of 2004, but more than made that back with a $412 million gain in the third quarter. It's likely that the December quarter report will show another huge gain."

Posted on December 28, 2004 at 7:15, GMT

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