Stocks to Watch -- Thursday, December 16

Update on Crude Position

Yesterday I finally closed the short established back on December 1st with over 600 cents in profit. You'll recall that I wrote on Tuesday that there was an obvious ABC buy set-up in crude. I thought about monkeying with the stop and bringing it down to 41.70 since I expected buyers would step in there, but in the end I deferred to Fuzzy and held off. The system's exit wasn't terrible, but it was about 70 cents worse than my "discretionary" exit.

Nevertheless, when you have a good trend-following system it doesn't pay (in the long run) to try to game entries and exits. I only saw the ABC buy set-up because I know a thing or two about Elliott Waves, and even "obvious" patterns sometimes become illusions. The bottom line is: Don't mess with a good thing; stick to your system.

Light Sweet Crude, 30-minute Chart

Chat Room Open from 8AM-9AM, Eastern Time

Yesterday TraderMike was kind enough to direct some of his gargantuan traffic over to the pre-open chat, which taxed my server terribly (this is an inside joke). He even graced the chat with his presence for a fleeting moment.

I've received hundreds of requests (OK, two requests) for a chat transcript since many people can't make it between 8 and 9 AM. First, the cheapy chat applet I use doesn't allow me to archive transcripts, and second, the chat mainly consists of ticker symbols interspersed with ass jokes. But rest assured that I have taken the matter of providing chat transcripts under consideration.

Chart of the Day -- Carnival Corporation, Monthly Chart

CCL hit a new all-time high yesterday. Another good example of "You Gotta Buy 'Em When They Ain't." CCL was a great buy during the terrible recession back in 1990. More recently, after the September 11 attack CCL plunged, making it a bargain.

CCL, Monthly Chart

Best and Worst Performing ETFs (last 12 weeks)

Best:

• Internet Infrastructure HOLDRs Trust (IIH) - Up ~47%
• B2B Internet HOLDRs Trust (BHH) - Up ~35%
• iShares MSCI Austria Index (EWO) - Up ~29%
• iShares Goldman Sachs Software Index (IGV) - Up ~27%
• iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP) - Up ~24%

Worst:

• Pharmaceutical HOLDRs Trust (PPH) - Down ~3%
• iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Treasury (SHY) - Flat
• iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) - Flat
• iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG) - Flat
• iShares GS $ InvestTop Corp Bond (LQD) - Up ~1%

The Era of Medical Cost Containment is at Hand

Open Bar for Health Costs, by Gary Shilling:

Roundup of China Aviation Oil News VII

CAO plot thickens -- article based on an excellent AWSJ report

CAO debt issues to be solved in line with int'l practice -- Xinhua