MaoXian.com -- Archive > December 7, 2004

Update on Crude Position

A picture of letting one's profits run: 705 cents and counting.

Light Sweet Crude, 30-minute Chart

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 21:15, GMT

Stocks to Watch -- Tuesday, December 7

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 14:15, GMT

Off-the-Cuff Ramblings in Cyberspace

The Business Of Blogging, by Lauren Gard:

"Marqui, a communications-software maker in Vancouver, recently began paying a dozen established bloggers $800 a month to talk about its products."

I should disclose that the Association for Genital Integrity is paying me $800 a month to bash circumcision on this site.

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 12:25, GMT

Chat Room Open from 8AM-9AM, Eastern Time

I promise not to talk about circumcision again in the morning chat, and you can be assured that I will devote at least five minutes of the hour to stock trading ideas.

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 7:55, GMT

Chart of the Day -- Hershey, Monthly Chart

Hershey Foods Corporation is engaged in the manufacture, distribution and sale of confectionery and grocery products. It manufactures confectionery products in a variety of packaged forms and markets them under more than 50 brands.

HSY hit a new all-time high yesterday. I'm not a fan of Hershey's Kisses (bad memories of stale ones found under sofa cushions... and eaten), but I will never say no to Twizzlers, Reese's Peanut Butter Cups, or Kit Kats (especially the Big Kat).

Don't forget about the dividends when looking at the price chart. Hershey also has a nice little "Investment Calculator" at their website (I wish every public company had one of these). $1000 invested in HSY on January 2, 1970 is now worth $51,859.50. If you had invested $1,000 on October 4, 1974 (the low of that terrible bear market) you would have $145,466.67 today. Sweet!

HSY, Monthly Chart

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 7:45, GMT

Best and Worst Performing Mid-Cap Stocks (last 52 weeks)

Best:

American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEOS)
Up ~174% {clothing retailer}
Cree Inc (CREE)
Up ~137% {semiconductor materials and devices}
Boyd Gaming Corp (BYD)
Up ~134% {gambling / casinos}
Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)
Up ~131% {specialty retail}
McAfee Inc (MFE)
Up ~118% {computer security solutions}

Worst:

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc (KKD)
Down ~73% {specialty retailer of doughnuts}
LTX Corp (LTXX)
Down ~48% {semiconductor test solutions}
Synopsys Inc (SNPS)
Down ~47% {electronic design automation (EDA) software}
Cypress Semiconductor Corp (CY)
Down ~47% {digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits}
3Com Corp (COMS)
Down ~46% {data and voice networking products and solutions}

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 7:35, GMT

Weighed Down by Cash Anchors

Prominent Funds Feel Bite from Big Cash Stakes, by Russ Kinnell:

"Its [sic] worth remembering that these managers aren't trying to time the market; they're just making sure they get a good value when they invest."

What's the difference? This statement, by a director of research no less, shows a fundamental lack of understanding about what "timing" the market means. Of course these fund managers are trying to "time" the market in the sense that they're waiting for a time when bargains exist.

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 7:25, GMT

Details of China Aviation Oil's Losses

There's still not a lot of information about the transactions CAO entered into. As this Singapore Exchange press release says: the audit "could take some weeks." Here are bits gleaned from various news articles:

"The company ... amassed the losses by placing larger and larger bets on falls in the oil price just as it was hitting all-time highs." --FT

"Analysts said Chen's absence frustrated investigations into how one of Singapore's best-performing Chinese state-backed companies... could mask nearly a year of deepening trading losses ... the Singapore company made its first report of its derivative transactions to its Beijing parent Oct. 10, when oil prices were rising and its losses were mounting." -- Reuters

"When the company initially sought protection from its creditors early last week, its legal filing mentioned that it had received letters from creditors demanding a total of $247.5 million, including $15.4 million sought by a unit of Goldman Sachs and $143.6 million sought by Mitsui & Company Energy Risk Management. But a Goldman official said on Monday that the firm received payment for much of the debt in late November and had turned the rest into a $7.6 million loan, due in February. Platts Commodity News cited a Mitsui spokesman on Monday saying that China Aviation Oil Singapore had already repaid all but a few million dollars of its debt; a Mitsui official in Singapore referred questions to Tokyo, where no official could be reached for comment late Monday." -- NYTimes

"CAOS' situation lends credence to Standard and Poor's previously expressed view that complex corporate structures and unreliable accounting practices make it difficult to perform substantive analysis on some China-related companies ... On the accounting side, the problem of limited disclosure is compounded with problems of compliance." -- Taipei Times

Posted on December 7, 2004 at 7:15, GMT

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