MaoXian.com -- Archive > December 6, 2004

Simple Systems

When things go up and up and up, simple moving average crossover systems show good gains. Here's the SIRI 5-min. chart:

SIRI, 5-min. Chart

Looking out a little longer, here's the TZOO daily chart:

TZOO, Daily Chart

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 17:45, GMT

Stocks to Watch -- Monday, December 6

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 14:15, GMT

Chat Room Open from 8AM-9AM, Eastern Time

Last Friday in the morning chat we learned the Latin word for detergent, and were on top of BIOM from the get-go. Everyone's welcome, come on in.

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 8:15, GMT

Chart of the Day -- China Aviation Oil (Singapore), Daily Chart

Trading is currently suspended in these shares.

China Aviation Oil (Singapore), Daily Chart

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 7:55, GMT

Best and Worst Performing Large-Cap Stocks (last 52 weeks)

Best:

Apple Computer Inc (AAPL)
Up ~201% {personal computers and peripherals}
AutoDesk Inc (ADSK)
Up ~185% {design software}
TXU Corp (TXU)
Up ~171% {power production; electricity, natural gas}
Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI)
Up ~149% {producer of specialty materials, metals}
eBay Inc (EBAY)
Up ~108% {online auctioneer}

Worst:

Ciena Corp (CIEN)
Down ~65% {networking products}
Winn-Dixie Stores Inc (WIN)
Down ~52% {major food and drug retailer}
Chiron Corp (CHIR)
Down ~41% {pharmaceuticals}
LSI Logic Corp (LSI)
Down ~38% {integrated circuits}
Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc (WPI)
Down ~38% {branded and off-patent (generic) pharmaceutical products}

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 7:45, GMT

Yesterday's Media Vision, Today's OmniVision?

Have investors learned nothing? by Herb "Perma-Skeptic" Greenberg:

"You can justify all kinds of valuations using all kinds of wacky metrics as long as stocks are going higher. It's funny how some of those methods of valuation look so silly after the fact. Is it different this time? No -- just as it wasn't during the bubble. When the music stops you still need to find a chair. It's remarkable so many investors still haven't learned that lesson. What's happening, after all, is so 1999. Except instead of Amazon, we have Overstock."

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 7:35, GMT

Misadventures in Derivatives

Failed China Fuel Supplier Waited Too Long for Help, by Wayne Arnold:

"As the details behind China Aviation Singapore's collapse emerge, there appear to be three central questions its executives will face: Why didn't the company's own risk management apparatus detect and then halt the trading losses earlier? Why didn't the parent company disclose the losses before selling a 15 percent stake in its subsidiary in October? And why did the company still neglect to tell shareholders about the losses when it reported quarterly earnings last month?"

This story just keeps on getting juicier. I'd love to know what the actual positions were that caused the losses. Did they sell naked puts on crude futures? I'm going to follow this story closely.

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 7:25, GMT

Going Public on the Cusp of the Depression

Cat marks 75 years of NYSE trading, by Paul Gordon:

"... the company now known as Caterpillar Inc. traded 400 shares on its first day [December 2, 1929], closing with a price of $56.25 a share, and continued to grow from there, with an annual compounded growth rate of 7.65 percent a year ... According to the company, if somebody purchased one share of Caterpillar stock on that day, it would be worth more than $14,000 today, taking the stock splits into account."

Continued to grow from there? I'm sure the share price collapsed throughout 1930, '31, '32 along with everything else, but even folks who bought that first day and hung in there have done all right -- the magic of compound interest at work. I wonder if that 7.65% annual compound growth rate includes dividends? It must. CAT was featured as Chart of the Day last Monday.

Posted on December 6, 2004 at 7:15, GMT

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