MaoXian.com -- Archive > December 2, 2004

End of Day Update on Crude Trading

Fuzzy made another 230 cents in crude today. I have no idea how much of it he's going to hang on to in the end. I'd move the protective stop to breakeven, but that would make the Fuzzmeister heart sick... don't monkey with a good thing.

Light Sweet Crude, 30-minute Chart

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 21:35, GMT

Stocks to Watch -- Thursday, December 2

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 14:15, GMT

Chat Room Open from 8AM-9AM, Eastern Time

Yesterday in the morning chat we had a heated debate about boxers versus briefs, concluded that neither the Marx Brothers nor the Three Stooges are the least bit funny, and, oh yeah, we were watching GORX from the get-go. Come join us today....

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 8:15, GMT

Chart of the Day -- Moody's and Dun & Bradstreet, Weekly Charts

Moody's Corporation is a provider of credit ratings, research and analysis covering debt instruments and securities in the global capital markets and a provider of quantitative credit assessment services, credit training services and credit process software to banks and other financial institutions.

MCO hit a new all-time high yesterday, and DNB hit a new all-time high last week. Moody's completed its spin-off from Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) on September 30, 2000, and you can see from the charts that MCO has somewhat outperformed DNB since that time. Warren Buffett owns about a 15% of MCO. As Buffett knows well, investing in businesses that have little or no competition, like Moody's, is a no-brainer.

MCO, DNB, Weekly Charts

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 7:55, GMT

Best and Worst Performing ETFs (last 4 weeks)

Best:

B2B Internet HOLDRs Trust (BHH) - Up ~13%
Broadband HOLDRs Trust (BDH) - Up ~11%
Internet Infrastructure HOLDRs Trust (IIH) - Up ~11%
iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA) - Up ~10%
iShares MSCI Austria Index (EWO) - Up ~10%

Worst:

iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) - Down ~2%
Biotech HOLDRs Trust (BBH) - Down ~2%
Retail HOLDRs Trust (RTH) - Down ~2%
iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) - Down ~2%
iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) - Down ~1%

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 7:45, GMT

Update on Crude Trading

Small losses, small gains, and the occasional big gain is the name of the game.

Light Sweet Crude, 30-minute Chart

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 7:35, GMT

The Fine Line Between Incompetence and Malfeasance

Trading Losses at Chinese Firm Coming to Light, by Keith Bradsher:

"The disclosure this week that a Singapore-listed company controlled by a Chinese state-owned enterprise lost $550 million in derivatives transactions [for fuel oil] in the last five weeks has touched off an international scramble to determine who will cover the losses ... The heavy losses... have underlined three recurrent problems with state-owned companies and their affiliates. The problems involve the companies' often poor level of financial sophistication, their weak corporate governance and their uncertain financial backing from Beijing. Chinese copper companies were among the biggest losers when copper prices plunged in October, sustaining several hundred million dollars in losses, government-controlled news media in China reported at the time. The Chinese news media blamed a lack of skill among Chinese copper traders in hedging their bets for the losses, not malfeasance. It also blamed an excessive willingness to believe that an increase in prices over the summer would continue."

The old "excessive willingness to believe" bugaboo.

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 7:25, GMT

The Trend is Your Friend

Do Hedge Funds Calm Markets or Inflate Bubbles? by Matthew Lynn:

"... hedge funds did not engage in a persistent attack on the technology bubble. In contrast, it seems that at least until late 1999, their trading mostly supported rather than undermined the bubble. Hedge funds were riding the bubble, not fighting it. From an efficient markets perspective, these results are puzzling. Why would some of the most sophisticated investors in the market hold these overpriced technology stocks? And why would they devote a larger share of their portfolio to these stocks than other investors?"

From an efficient markets perspective, everything is puzzling.

Posted on December 2, 2004 at 7:15, GMT

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