MaoXian.com -- Archive > October 18, 2004

"Whammy" Bar For Sure

The Diamonds sure enough put in a "whammy" bar as expected, though price didn't reach high enough to trigger the buy stop. It's one thing to recognize when the Dow has caught support, and quite another to make a buck off of it. Good night, guys.

DIA, Daily Chart

Posted at 21:30, GMT

Stocks to Watch for Monday, October 18

Posted at 14:15, GMT

Why Buy Stops Exist

The Dog Jones futures gapped down 30 points at the open this morning, so it's unlikely that today's trading idea will trigger. Nevertheless keep an eye on how she acts today... maybe a classic "whammy" day is in the cards.

Posted at 13:50, GMT

Today's Trading Idea

I think the Dow has caught support here, so the Diamonds could be a play. Initial risk is around one dollar and price may return to the swing high at $103ish, so the reward to risk is decent at around 3 to 1. Keep an eye on her.

(These trading ideas will be for Members Only (those who make a donation) once I get the new site up, which should happen by the end of this month.)

DIA, Daily Chart

Posted at 8:45, GMT

Sentiment Update for the Week Ending October 15, 2004

As I expected last week, the "lower high" has stayed in place. Public sentiment got a little worse last week (see red arrow), but not bad enough to get me excited. It's true that the Dow has probably caught some support here, but I'll wait for lower prices before putting more cash to work.

Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERs, Weekly Chart

Posted at 8:35, GMT

Without a Doubt, by Ron Suskind:

This should scare the bejesus out of you (pun intended).

"This is one key feature of the faith-based presidency: open dialogue, based on facts, is not seen as something of inherent value. It may, in fact, create doubt, which undercuts faith."

Posted at 8:25, GMT

An American scapegoat in London, by Carol Gould:

"I cannot conduct business or even take a taxi ride in Britain without a scathing tirade about the scurrilous Yanks ... I know many expat Americans - including non-Jews - who have received dressing-downs at social and professional gatherings."

Absurd. Of course I have the advantage of being a large and mean-looking WASP... and I avoid Guardian readers of all shapes and sizes. ;-)

Posted at 8:15, GMT

What Barron's is looking for in a financial blog:

"First, a distinctive, descriptive name. Second, a constantly updated flow of conversation. We prefer several entries each day, at least some that follow current market events. Third, links to meaty news stories or commentary, with a bit of an intro so you know whether to click, add breadth. Finally, an appealing layout and formatting are nice, but not necessary; the speed of posting should be more critical. And please, please tell us something about who you are so we know why we should listen to what you're saying."

Looks like I have to write an "About" section... then I'll be golden.

Posted at 8:05, GMT

Jason Zweig's Interview with 85-year-old Peter Bernstein:

"Q: Do you think the investing public has gotten smarter?

A: I think my answer would be no. The day-trader phenomenon would not have developed out of a population that was thoughtful about how the stock market works."

This is an excellent interview and I recommend that you read it closely.

Posted at 7:55, GMT

The Moving Chronicles, Chapter 3: The hunt for rent: October:

"Judging by the condition and location, 'the shack' might get $2000, maybe as much as $2300, per month in today's market. If someone can explain how $24K -$27K is a good return on a $729K+ 'investment,' which requires improvements and maintenance on top of ~$40K interest and ~$9K+ in real estate taxes, please drop me a line."

Posted at 7:45, GMT

CBOE Futures Exchange Set to Launch New China Index Today:

"The CBOE China Index, created by the CBOE, is a broad-based, equal-dollar weighted index composed of sixteen securities, all of which are either American Depository Receipts (ADRs), New York Registered Shares (NYSs) or NYSE Global Shares� (NGSs) traded on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq or the American Stock Exchange. Initially, the sixteen companies that comprise the new index are: Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH), China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (LFC), China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA), Chinadotcom Corp. (CHINA), China Mobile (Hong Kong) Ltd. (CHL), China Unicom Ltd. (CHU), CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), China Yuchai International Ltd. (CYD), Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. (NTE), Netease.com, Inc. (NTES), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PTR), Sina Corporation (SINA), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMI), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP), Sohu.com Inc. (SOHU), and UTStarcom Inc. (UTSI). The index will be rebalanced quarterly."

Posted at 7:35, GMT

Bill Miller raised bet on Netflix prior to its recent plunge:

"The Legg Mason Opportunity Trust, one of two mutual funds managed by Miller, held 6 million Netflix shares at Sept. 30, an increase from 2.9 million on June 30...."

The sound of $60 million going pfffffft.

Posted at 7:25, GMT

TradeSports is a more efficient and deeper market than the Iowa Presidential Futures Market:

"The University of Iowa proved over the course of 15, 20 years that information markets are more accurate than polls because they are real people using real money. Whether you use them to make wagers or not, there is useful information for anyone."

Barry Ritholtz wrote a piece called Presidential Futures Markets: Spurious Predictive Powers that you may want to check out.

Posted at 7:15, GMT

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