The Notes ran up this afternoon, breaching the so-called Whammy Bar from Hell that was put in back on the 3rd. It looks like the yield on the 10-year is actually down about 30 bps since the start of the year, which is impressive given the number of commentators who predicted that rates would rise dramatically in 2004. As Yogi said: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

ZN, 50-min. Chart

Early movers:

As many of you know, I will make the switch to trading futures in the new year. (I'll still post a daily trade set-up in a stock, though it will be for subscribers-only and much more sophisticated than the freebie coil picks.) I'm still backtesting various things in the futures markets, but here's a look at a current YM position, which already has a breakeven stop in place.

YM, 15-min. Chart

Popular QQQ Jumping from AMEX to NASDAQ, by Jenny Anderson:

-- Thanks to my trading buddy Bob for this link. --

The coil scanner picked up QCOM. Qualcomm got above $40 the other day, doubling where it was a year ago (though it's still a long way from its all-time high of $100 (split-adjusted)). See how it acts as it goes back down to test $40.

QCOM, 30-min. Chart

You'll notice that IVAN (Ivanhoe Energy) made the Unusual Suspects list yesterday. Did folks buy it hoping somehow to cash in on the hurricane? ;-)

Schwab reaches for its roots as market shifts, by Ben White:

Schwab's attempt to go up-market wasn't necessarily a bad idea; the problem was that their timing happened to be awful... they tried to make the switch just as the largest bear market of the last several generations began.

Few people think about how devastating the 2000-2002 bear market was. The S&P 500 Index went from a high of 1552.90 in March 2000 to a low of 768.60 in October 2002 (a 50.5% decline). Over that same period the Nasdaq 100 Index went from 4816 to 795.30 (an 83.5% decline), rivalling the Great Crash of 1929-32. A lot of very large accounts became relatively small accounts in a few short years (including mine!).

Execution fee for Nasdaq 100 'Cubes', by John Spence:

I think the smart routing algorithm takes this new fee into account, doesn't it? Better preference an ECN just to be sure you avoid the AMEX.

The (vast and unappreciated) role of luck in investing, by Henry "Nothing Interesting About The Company Except Banking Fees" Blodget

You can find yesterday's Unusual Suspects on the Unusual Suspects page.