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Friday, June 4

Great tone all day, tailwind all the way... I see KMRT closed above $62.50, hope you guys caught it. Have a pleasant weekend!

4PM

Posted at 9:37 PM, GMT

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KMRT set up beautifully this morning. Let's go over the Dummy steps again: broad market winds are positive, long side has a tailwind, look long. Find an Unusual Suspect that's going in the right direction. Wait for a spot to get long with little risk. Bet only as much as you're comfortable betting. Manage risk by adjusting your stop-loss order as the trade goes your way.

It looks easy but it isn't. It's like watching the World Poker Tour on TV. You think, gee, I could do that, I could call Johnny Chan's raise, but the sad fact is you probably couldn't (or shouldn't!). I'm off to the gym.

KMRT
KMRT, 30-min. Chart

Posted at 3:57 PM, GMT

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A look at this morning's E-mini action. You can see the impulse up so you're thinking long, but do you see how close yesterday's high is? If you got long above bar 2 (the down doji) you would have had to be prepared to scram on the test of yesterday's high, meaning you'd be risking more than you'd be making, which would be stupid.

Remember the futures market is full of tricks and traps, especially around "obvious" spots like previous highs and lows. You may want to review the E-mini chart I posted on Wednesday to see this kind of trickiness in action.

ES
E-mini S&P future, 5-min. Chart

Posted at 3:30 PM, GMT

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U.S. Steps Up Push Against Online Casinos by Seizing Cash

"Federal prosecutors contend that online gambling sites are illegal, but the offshore casinos fall outside their jurisdiction. So for nearly a year, the government has been trying to curb the sites' activities by investigating and pressuring American companies that provide services to offshore gambling sites on the theory that they are 'aiding and abetting' the operations. Until now, the effort has largely involved seeking information from American companies, including major broadcasters, Web portals and industry consultants. The seizure of money significantly escalates the government's attack."

-- Thanks to my trading buddy Bob for this link. --

Posted at 2:30 PM, GMT

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I finally won my first No Limit Hold'em Tournament this morning. I don't have a screenshot... I closed the screen by accident because I was over-excited. 8-)

Posted at 12:34 PM, GMT

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Bits from the Urban Outfitters 10-K that interested me:

"We have achieved compounded annual sales growth of 21% over the past five years, with sales of approximately $548.4 million in fiscal 2004."

"We have established a reputation with these young adults, who are culturally sophisticated, self-expressive and concerned with acceptance by their peer group." [I love this line. ;-)]

"Our stores are located in large metropolitan areas, select university communities as well as enclosed malls and accommodate our customers' propensity not only to shop, but also to congregate with their peers."

"As of April 2, 2004, we operated 61 Urban Outfitters stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Ireland, as well as the www.urbn.com web site and the Urban Outfitters catalog. Urban Outfitters' North American and European store sales accounted for approximately 46% and 3% of consolidated net sales, respectively, for fiscal 2004."

"Anthropologie tailors its merchandise and inviting store environment to sophisticated and contemporary women aged 30 to 45 ... As of April 2, 2004, we operated 52 Anthropologie stores in the United States, as well as the www.anthropologie.com web site and the Anthropologie catalog. Anthropologie's store sales accounted for approximately 39% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2004."

"As of April 2, 2004, we operated one Free People Retail store in the United States, which accounted for less than 1% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2004."

"Free People wholesale sales accounted for approximately 3% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2004."

"Essential components of the ambience of each store include playing music that appeals to our target customers, using unique signage and employing a staff that understands and identifies with the target customer."

"A majority of our Urban Outfitters stores that opened in fiscal 2004 were in traditional enclosed shopping malls. We believe these Urban Outfitters mall stores have a faster return on investment and are more productive than their non-mall counterparts."

"Private label merchandise generally yields higher gross profit margins than brand name merchandise, and helps to keep our product offerings fresh and unique."

"During fiscal 2004, Anthropologie catalog circulation was over 13.3 million."

"Based on an overwhelmingly positive customer response to the [Urban Outfitters] catalog, we plan to expand circulation to approximately eight million catalogs in fiscal 2005."

"Direct-to-consumer [catalog and website] sales were approximately 9% of consolidated net sales for fiscal 2004."

"During fiscal 2004, we did business with approximately 2,000 vendors. No single vendor accounted for more than 10% of merchandise purchased during that time."

"We utilize point-of-sale register systems connected by a frame relay network to our home offices. These systems provide for register efficiencies, timely customer checkout and instant back office access to register information, as well as for nightly polling of sales, inventory data and price changes."

"As of January 31, 2004, we employed approximately 4,600 people and approximately 48% of them are full-time employees. The number of part-time employees fluctuates depending on seasonal needs."

"Our home offices and call center facilities are leased properties with varying lease term expirations through 2011. We own a 191,000 square foot distribution center in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. We also utilize a distribution facility in Reno, Nevada operated by a third-party ... All of our Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie and Free People stores are leased... Our retail stores are typically leased for a term of ten years with renewal options for an additional five to ten years."

"During fiscal 2004 we opened eight new Urban Retail stores ... During fiscal 2004 we opened 13 new Anthropologie stores ... We plan to open approximately 24 to 27 stores during fiscal 2005, including one to two new Free People stores. The remaining new stores will be divided approximately evenly between Urban Retail and Anthropologie. Our goal thereafter is to increase net sales 20 to 25% per year through a combination of opening new stores, growing comparable store sales and continuing the growth of our direct-to-consumer and wholesale operations."

"During the last three years, we have mainly satisfied our cash requirements through our cash flow from operations and the proceeds generated from the public offering of our common shares."

"On September 9, 2003, we renewed and amended our line of credit facility (the "Line"). The Line is a one-year $30.0 million committed line of credit to fund working capital requirements and letters of credit. The Line contains a sublimit for borrowings by our European subsidiaries that are guaranteed by us. Cash advances bear interest at LIBOR plus 1.25% to 1.75% based on our achievement of prescribed adjusted debt ratios ... As of and during the twelve months ended January 31, 2004, there were no borrowings under the Line. Outstanding letters of credit and stand-by letters of credit under the Line totaled approximately $14.6 million as of January 31, 2004. The available borrowing under the Line was $15.4 million as of January 31, 2004."

"...there are seven locations where a percentage of sales are paid in lieu of a fixed minimum rent that are not reflected. Total rent expense related to these seven locations was approximately $942,000 for fiscal 2004."

"While we have been profitable in each of our last 56 operating quarters, our operating results are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Our highest sales levels have historically occurred during the five-month period from August 1 to December 31 of each year (the back-to-school and holiday periods)."

"Mr. Hayne co-founded Urban Outfitters in 1970 and has been Chairman of the Board of Directors and President since our incorporation in 1976 ... Mr. Belair co-founded Urban Outfitters in 1970 and has been a director since its incorporation in 1976." [So they started the business when they were both around 22 years old.]

[Their gross profit margin for the latest fiscal year is around 39% (doing it in my head) which is the best margin for the last five years... looks like in the worst year (2001) the gross margin was around 32%... also the SG&A expenses have been very stable these last five years. I'll read the Financials and the Notes when I get back from my lunch date.]

Posted at 12:23 PM, GMT

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I flipped through Urban Outfitters online catalog, which is nicely done... looks like they're targeting teenagers only, especially the ones interested in faux-retro. They sell some dorm-type furniture as well, so maybe the younger college kids buy this stuff. One of their products is this Che Ape t-shirt which amused me until I saw the price tag: $28! I'm beginning to understand the secret of their success, lol.

I see they have a shop in London at 36-38 Kensington High Street, which is a fashionable (i.e. overpriced) area.

Che Ape

Posted at 10:42 AM, GMT

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Urban Outfitters has been going great guns... I'm not a fan of the specialty retail business, but they're obviously doing something right. I'm going to do a little reading, see what I can find out.

URBN
URBN, Weekly Chart

Posted at 10:31 AM, GMT

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Putting Gas Prices in Perspective:

"While Americans paid an average of $1.78 per gallon of unleaded gas in April 2004, a gallon of gas cost $4.77 in France, $5.00 in Germany, $5.25 in Denmark, and $5.40 in the United Kingdom ... Gas costs currently account for about 2.7 percent of consumer spending, compared with 3.87 percent in 1974, 4.8 percent in early 1982, and 5.14 percent in mid-1980 ... Americans' personal incomes have risen eight-fold since 1973, twice as fast as gasoline prices."

Here in London gas is 83.9 pence per liter... one American gallon is 3.79 liters so that's about 3 pounds 18 pence, which is around $5.84 at current exchange rates (I'm doing this in my head so it's rough).

Posted at 7:26 AM, GMT



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