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Friday, November 21
Once again, Linda Bradford Raschke shares some trading wisdom:
"I try to find the best entry I can -- somewhere I can easily manage risk. Once you see that spot, you might as well get in and
put your whole position on."
"The market's either retracing or testing -- that's about all there is to it." "For intraday trades, I'm usually just watching the tape... the TICKs... the TRIN... the VIX." "You need to have some kind of initial risk point ... You have to think in terms of getting into a market and having a general window so if your timing is off a little, you still have some time to see how the trade should be managed. But you need that initial insurance or risk point. So even though I usually start out with $500, there are times when I don't want to risk that much. After you've put on the position and established your initial risk, you manage the trade, which consists of getting out if it's not working or tightening the stop." "... in the 1980s I was much more countertrend than I am now... [but later] I started looking for more trades that constituted pullbacks within trends rather than trying to guess when a market had gone too far." "You have to have something that allows you to walk out of the office and leave trading completely behind." "... study basic chart patterns. Do yourself a favor and ignore all the oscillators and neural nets and the fancy little indicators...." "New traders seem to spend the first three years trying out different things and finding out they don't work. You have to test lots of different styles and markets until you find what works for you. And you might find out that you're a two-minute S&P trader, or that you like volatility breakouts, or something else. But you need patience, because it takes time to find what fits your personality." Posted at 9:29 PM, GMT
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden post a nice chart of the XAU Index with its massive head and shoulders bottom. The Aden sisters have been bullish on gold for a long time (and they've been right for a long time).
"... the XAU could eventually reach the 160 level. Since it's now near 105, that would mean a rise of over 50% from current
levels and many gold shares would of course rise much further."
Posted at 8:58 PM, GMT
Stephen Roach writes about a "tear in the fabric of confidence" which will lead to "a good deal more to come on the downside" for the dollar.
"Ultimately, orderly adjustments in currency markets are all about confidence. They presuppose that nothing really undermines the
basic trust of today's generation of foreign investors in dollar-denominated assets."
Roach then details all the things that are undermining that basic trust:
"... a full-blown crisis of corporate governance ... the politics of protectionism ... America's misadventures in post-war Iraq ...
the fiscal train wreck in Washington."
Posted at 8:40 PM, GMT
I'm training myself to be less dependent on the mouse. In addition to the all-important TAB and SHIFT+TAB keys, these shortcut keys are the ones I use most in Internet Explorer:
Posted at 5:06 PM, GMT
The Chairman takes a loss in today's Trading for Dummies lesson, and discusses the complexities of trade management. Posted at 11:39 AM, GMT
Stepping back to look at a longer-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield you can see that it could rise to 5.5% in the next year without moving outside of the channel. It may turn out that the the plunge in rates this past summer was a crucial turning point for the Treasury market. Just as the May/June 1984 spike in rates (to around 14%) marked a brilliant entry point into the bond market, the May/June 2003 dive in rates (to nearly 3%) may have marked a propitious exit.
10-Year Treasury Note Yield, Quarterly Chart Posted at 9:41 AM, GMT
So much for my trip to Istanbul... glad I hadn't bought my ticket.
"This Travel Warning is being issued to alert U.S. citizens to security concerns in Turkey. In light of the recent terrorist
bombings, the Department of State recommends U.S citizens defer non-essential travel to Turkey."
Posted at 8:19 AM, GMT
Lee Berton reports on a recent GAO report that calls the audit market for large public companies an oligopoly.
"... of the more than 1,000 former Andersen clients, only 147 switched to non-Big 4 firms; almost half of these going to BDO Seidman
and Grant Thornton. The rest went to Big 4 firms with Ernst & Young getting the biggest number at 286 and PricewaterhouseCoopers
getting the least at 159."
Posted at 7:58 AM, GMT
Paul Merriman explains how brokers are exploiting the fund scandal to meet sales goals and fatten bonuses:
"... the brokerage industry is eager to reap a huge one-time windfall from sales commissions as investors bail out of Putnam and put
their money in other load funds ... Those who are willing to take the trouble to invest in no-load index funds could avoid paying
those sales commissions. But instead, most of them will rely on their brokers for advice, not realizing they are being taken
advantage of."
Posted at 7:49 AM, GMT
Previous Entry >>> Random Thoughts -- November 20 |
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Chairman MaoXian |
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