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Monday, November 11


Illusions of Control


Look Away Before You Throw Up
© Akiyoshi Kitaoka

Brett Steenbarger writes:

"An impostor is one who must deny reality to maintain a false sense of self. Flip sides of the same coin are those who cannot accept criticism and those who cannot accept praise; those who cannot accept a loss, and those who cannot tolerate a gain.

Most traders are more willing to discuss their psychological problems than their trading shortcomings, not because they fear revealing proprietary information, but because they fear revealing that they have nothing proprietary to share.

Researchers at the London Business School found that traders who felt most confident in their ability to predict outcomes in a random task had the worst trading outcomes. They termed this phenomenon 'illusion of control,' and I suspect it's the psychological basis for many a trading impostor."

That certainly sounds like the psychological basis of a few people I've known. They talk a good game, but when it comes time to show their results they start making excuses. It's good to know that one simple request for an audited trading record or a copy of a Schedule D is all you need to reveal the so-called intelligent speculators as the trading impostors that they are.



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