Was unaware that this existed before Friday ... ticker symbol UWTI (U for Ultra, WTI for West Texas Intermediate, I suppose) ... this shows how out of touch I am ... if it doesn't cross my radar, I just have no idea about it.
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- March 16, 2015
Cutting losses in gold and emerging markets and getting short 'em. Short crude gains bailing out lots of little losses ... that's the idea with trend following.
Salix Pop, 1 Minute View
Salix Pharma (yes, another biotech stock) popped on a $175 buyout offer ... the scanner of course would pick this up at 12:40 PM and assuming you weren't at lunch (or fast asleep in China), you would have gotten in early enough to make a few bucks.
Nanex posted a millisecond chart of SLXP on Twitter ... this is a slightly better look than my $9.99 a month datafeed can give.
Acadia Pop, 1 Minute View
Rare bit of up on a very down day ... Acadia Pharma (yes, another biotech stock) moving up from the open, quietly though, not sure I would have noticed ... but at lunchtime it got unusually active and I probably wouldn't have missed it (no scanner report from last night available, but I can guess).
By the time this news appeared, the top was in of course:
Acadia Surges as Canceled Events Lead to Deal Speculation 2:36 PM EDT March 10, 2015
House of Cards -- Season Three
Finished it today, what, ten days after it was released? So not exactly a binge. The show hasn't jumped the shark quite yet, but maybe soon? The homoerotic stuff makes me uncomfortable. Kevin Spacey has never struck me as a tough guy ... he might be a ruthless sociopath, but the softness (and pudginess) I see in him messes up the image for me.
Stamper works better as an evil guy because he's so lean (even more gaunt after his recovery). The same is true of Putin, er, Petrov.
Robin Wright reminds me of Rachel in Blade Runner ... the perfect posture, the poise, the diction, the clothes, the bleached teeth (and hair), the Stepford Wife / Ice Queen thing. Season three takes a twist on her sociopath story, not sure if it makes sense.
Again (like Bosch), this show probably appeals to late Boomers and Gen X. Not sure if the kids (Gen Y and Millennials) care for it. I can still recommend it to members of the liberal coastal elite; the show won't fly in flyover country. My selected screenshots below.
Cast: Kevin Spacey (b. 1959); Robin Wright (b. 1966); Michael Kelly (b. 1969); Mahershala Ali (b. 1974); Molly Parker (b. 1972); Elizabeth Marvel (b. 1969); Jayne Atkinson (b. 1959)
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- March 9, 2015
Important change as the TBT reverses ... I've been long the TLT (short interest rates) this way since September 2013 (!), but will now switch sides. When the ^TYX went briefly below 2.25% on 1/30/2015 (see bottom chart), that may have marked some kind of generational low ... time will tell (and I'm always happy to reverse position when prices dictate).
Long view of the long bond:
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- March 2, 2015
No changes this week..
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- February 23, 2015
XIV reverses following last week's move in VXX ... silver plunge means time to short.
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- February 16, 2015
More quick losses from positions put on in Jan. and Feb.
ETF Trading Portfolio Update -- February 9, 2015
Whipsawed in three positions within one week ... has to be some kind of record.
David Shambaugh's Wishful Thinking
David Shambaugh, the academic and think tanker, posted a piece in the Wall Street Journal titled "The Coming Chinese Crackup." I didn't find his argument that "China’s system and society ... [is now] closer to a breaking point" persuasive in the least. Just for reference, Shambaugh got his BA in 1977, which means he was probably born in 1955, making him a "Middle Boomer" who will turn 60 this year. Here are his five points:
- "China’s economic elites have one foot out the door" -- not new, and not entirely true
- "greatly intensified the political repression" -- has waxed and waned for 30 years now
- "propaganda has lost its power" -- actually they're savvier on this front than ever before
- "corruption riddles party-state, military, Chinese society" -- has for "5000 years"
- "economy is stuck in a series of systemic traps" -- they're well aware of the issues
The truth is guys like Shambaugh can't stand the idea that an authoritarian, one-party state can be successful and long-lived. The Chinese are practical above all else, and survivors. His idea of political reform is anchored in liberal western ideals, not Chinese reality. What he should be concentrating on instead is how the West will become more Chinese: the rise of crony capitalism, regulatory capture, Washington-Wall St. client patron relationships, sham elections ("re-districting"), the rise of the surveillance state, etc.
The Chinese aren't going to become more like us, we're going to become more like them.
Geron Pop, Overlay View
GERN was up 35% so I went back to see when I would have seen it, and I'm ashamed to say it would have been 9:55 AM (stock already at $3.15 then). When I get back to the US and in the right time zone and have some free time (well, even more free time), I need to set up the scanner to catch these kinds of things earlier.
I have to go talk to my photoshop girl to see if she can quickly teach me how to do these overlay charts better. I used to know how to do it but have forgotten. That's the 1 min and 10 min., not exactly in line, but you get the idea.
Fallen NeuStar
Scanner screaming at 14:18 ... probably couldn't locate shares to short and the move was over in under ten minutes ... impressive ... you need a scanner which will alert you on a sub-minute level to catch something like this.
How Etsy Makes Money
From their S-1 [MY COMMENTS IN CAPS]:
"We operate a platform for third-party sellers. Our business model is based on shared success [LOL, FIRST TIME I'VE HEARD THIS ONE]: we make money when Etsy sellers make money, and we offer services to help Etsy sellers be more successful. [MAKES YOU FEEL GOOD, DOESN'T IT?] We do not compete with Etsy sellers, hold inventory or sell goods. [NO, WE ARE SIMPLE MIDDLEMEN] Our revenue is diversified, generated from a mix of marketplace activities and the services we provide Etsy sellers to help them create and grow [BUT NOT OUTGROW ETSY!] their businesses.
Our revenue consists of Marketplace revenue, Seller Services revenue and Other revenue. Our revenue is recorded net of actual and expected refunds [WONDER HOW MANY FRAUDULENT SELLERS ARE ON THERE?].
- Marketplace revenue includes the fee an Etsy seller pays for each completed transaction [SALES COMMISSION] and the listing fee an Etsy seller pays for each item she [HE] lists.
- Seller Services revenue includes fees an Etsy seller pays for services such as prominent placement in search results via Promoted Listings, payment processing [THE BIGGIE] via Direct Checkout and purchases of shipping labels [IS THIS A MATERIAL AMOUNT?] through our platform via Shipping Labels.
- Other revenue includes the fees we receive from a third-party payment processor [PAYPAL? CAN'T NAME NAMES].
Marketplace revenue. Marketplace revenue consists of the 3.5% fee that an Etsy seller pays for each completed transaction [BAM!] on our platform, exclusive of shipping fees charged. Marketplace revenue also consists of a listing fee of $0.20 per item that she [HE] lists in our marketplace. Although revenue from completed Wholesale transactions is included in Marketplace revenue, revenue from Wholesale enrollment is included in Seller Services revenue. [ODD?] Transaction fees are recognized when the corresponding transaction is made. Listing fees are recognized ratably over a four-month listing period, unless the item is sold or the seller relists it, at which time any remaining listing fee is recognized.
Seller Services revenue. Seller Services revenue consists of fees an Etsy seller pays us for the Seller Services she [HE] uses, including Promoted Listings, Direct Checkout, Shipping Labels and Wholesale.
• Revenue from Promoted Listings consists of cost-per-click based fees [WHAT ARE THE RATES?] an Etsy seller pays us for prominent placement of her [his] listings in search results generated by Etsy buyers in our marketplace. Revenue is recognized when the Promoted Listing is clicked.
• Revenue from Direct Checkout consists of fees an Etsy seller pays us to process credit, debit and Etsy Gift Card payments. [USE PAYPAL OR] Direct Checkout fees vary between 3–4% [BAM!] of the item’s total sale price plus a flat fee per order [HOW MUCH?], depending on the country in which her [his] bank account is located. Direct Checkout fees are taken from the item’s total sale price, including shipping. [THEY MAKE MORE FROM PROCESSING THE PAYMENT THAN THEY DO ON SALES COMMISSION? ... INCL. SHIPPING IN THE SKIM HELPS ... LOVE TO KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT FLAT FEE BASED ON SELLER'S GEOGRAPHY]
• Revenue from Shipping Labels consists of fees an Etsy seller pays us when she [HE] purchases shipping labels through our platform, net of the cost we incur in purchasing those shipping labels. We are able to provide our sellers shipping labels from the United States Postal Service and Canada Post at a discounted price due to the volume of purchases through our platform. [HOW MUCH DOES ETSY MARK THESE UP?]
• Revenue from Wholesale consists of fees an Etsy seller pays us when she [HE] is approved to enroll in our Wholesale program. The one-time Wholesale enrollment fee is recognized ratably over the estimated customer life. [WHAT'S ADVANTAGE OF BEING IN WHOLESALE PROGRAM? LOWER FEES? HOW MUCH IS THE ONE-TIME FEE?]
Other revenue. Other revenue includes the fees we receive from a third-party payment processor [PAYPAL? GRUDGING SINGLE MENTION BY NAME IN PROSPECTUS]. Other revenue is recognized as the transactions are processed by the third-party payment processor."
Of interest: How Etsy Alienated Its Crafters and Lost Its Soul, CAN ETSY GO PRO WITHOUT LOSING ITS SOUL?
Orexigen Therapeutics Unusually Active
Rare to see something trade more than SPY, but OREX did (showing nearly 350,000 trades) ... I don't have the scanner results in front of me but it probably popped up before 10 AM ... maybe it was front and center from 9:30 sharp, will check later. UPDATE: OK, I checked ... it actually showed at 9:29, then 9:43, then :46, :47 and of course every minute thereafter.
Headlines:
Mar-03-15
04:44PM Orexigen Jumps on Diet Pills Heart Benefit as FDA Frowns at Bloomberg +31.95%
04:44PM Best Buy and Orexigen are big market movers AP
04:13PM Orexigen Comments On Data Disclosure That "Disappointed" FDA at Forbes
03:33PM The FDA Is Forcing Orexigen To Do A Second Safety Study Because Of Contrave Disclosures at Forbes
02:16PM Has Orexigen Endangered Its Future To Boost Its Stock? at Forbes
02:06PM Orexigen Released Interim Data Without Approval Of Trial Leaders at Forbes
01:54PM Orexigen Soars On Obesity Drug's Surprise Health Boon at Investor's Business Daily
11:51AM Orexigen Weight-Loss Pill Shows Surprise Heart-Safety Benefit at TheStreet
First notices on StockTwits ... only a few dozen messages between 9:30 AM and 9:50 AM (I'm in China, 13 hour ahead time stamp confusing) ... RBC note referenced in BBG headline 9:39 AM? ... must go back to see how early I would have caught it:
Here's my "pop" view ... using a 2 min chart because the 1 minute mysteriously isn't coming in.
Bosch -- Season One
I finished watching season one of "Bosch." Watched all ten episodes in a binge over a couple days. It was ok, not great. I've read all the books so I was interested in the TV adaptation. The show seems pretty squarely aimed at Gen-Xers, maybe also late Boomers. The kids (Gen-Ys and Millennials) probably wouldn't care for it. Here's the main cast:
Titus Welliver as Det. Harry Bosch b. 1961
Jamie Hector as Det. Jerry Edgar b. 1975
Amy Aquino as Lieutenant Grace Billets b. 1957
Lance Reddick as Deputy Chief Irvin Irving b. 1962
Annie Wersching as Officer Julia Brasher b. 1977
Sarah Clarke as Eleanor Wish b. 1972
Jason Gedrick as Raynard Waits b. 1965
There are a couple of Gen Yers on there, Jamie Hector, who plays the token black sidekick (he's not a great actor, I think he was also in the Wire?), and Annie Wersching who plays Bosch's lover (she has a great, voluptuous bod when not in uniform). Aquino plays a Latina Lieutenant, and later a Lesbian Latina Lieutenant, unnecessarily I thought. Had the stiff police chief Irvin Irving reprising his Wire role. Cast included a craven blogger. Not enough Latinos in this given the LA location, just a few bit parts. Gedrick is pretty sinister as the psycho, he must work very hard to look that good at 50.
Bosch was a Vietnam vet, a "tunnel rat," and they tried to update him as an Iraq/Afghanistan vet, which doesn't really make sense since he'd be 40 when 9/11 happened. And Bosch was a tortured guy in the books, he didn't have a cute teenage daughter whose eyebrows needed plucking ... he was in a very dark place all the time. And he was sharp, a street-smart detective who could read anybody. Welliver can't really pull this off, going harder on the tough guy with a soft spot routine.
The arc wasn't that great, show to show writing and acting wasn't very even. I guess overall I'm pretty disappointed with it.
My selected screenshots:
Opting Out from Being CONned
Interesting bit from the Barclays ATS – LX and Equities Electronic Order Handling FAQ:
Opt-out notice: By default, all firm orders sent by Barclays algorithms will be conditional-eligible so that clients’ orders may interact with the maximum amount of potential liquidity. If you have any questions regarding how conditional orders operate, or if you do not want your algorithmic orders to be conditionally eligible, you can opt out of this functionality by contacting your Barclays Equities sales representative
If you don't opt out, they'll sorta kinda protect your interests:
Barclays may revoke or limit a participant’s ability to submit conditional negotiations if the subscriber exhibits a low rate of responding to conditional invitations with firm-up orders. ... Firm-up rates are monitored across all conditional-supported venues, including Barclays LX.
UBS "expects" traders using their ATS will come through with a firm-up order. But no word from them on monitoring firm-up rates.
Weight Watchers Collapses
This thing has been going down for ages but really collapsed today (-35%) on earnings. I looked at the top ten shareholders (as of 12/31/14):
Invus Public Equities Advisors, LLC 51.94%
Fidelity Management & Research Company 10.55%
Capital Research Global Investors 6.23%
First Manhattan Company 4.88%
Millennium Management LLC 3.34%
North Tide Capital, LLC 3%
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2.97%
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 2.49%
Camber Capital Management LLC 2.02%
Putnam Investment Management, L.L.C. 1.9%
There was a lot of opportunity to short this at around $15 after hours (it looks like) ... surprised it tanked under $12 during the regular session. Usually 90% of the move happens after hours, and just scraps are left for the normal market hours.
Dragonvale -- Seed Dragon
Glare + Nectar ... took awhile.
Lumber Liquidators Liquidation, 1 Minute View
Interesting one, got active at 10:32, scanner should have alerted you. Reported earnings but included the paragraph about a possible Department of Justice investigation not in the 8-K but in the 10-K, which people only discovered later? Maybe there was a conference call and something was revealed on it that caused the stock to go into freefall. Anyway, regardless of the news quick witted traders could have shorted this thing for some serious money.
Click to enlarge